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Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$2.18 -0.46% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.17

Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 31/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $397.2M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TMQ stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Trilogy Metals Inc. (NYSE: TMQ) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 31/100 at a spot price of $2.18 (-0.46% 1D, market cap $397.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, TMQ ranks #227 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TMQ compare to CMCL and ITRG in the Materials sector?
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Within the Materials sector (Precious Metals), TMQ carries a Roarable E (31/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -34.0%. By comparison, CMCL (Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $391.5M) and ITRG (Integra Resources Corp.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $426.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TMQ leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TMQ leads on capital efficiency (-34.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TMQ?
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Per TMQ's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-11-30, CIK 0001543418), Trilogy Metals Inc. generated $66.1M in revenue (+17.7% YoY), -$42.2M in net income, and -$3.2M in free cash flow against $157.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.17 (-0.27%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (31/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510031
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (8)Whales (3)SEC (10)Macro (7)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-11.9% Base Target
$8 Bull$2 Base$2 Bear
📬 FREE TMQ RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TMQ)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (31/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TMQ SCORES 31/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (32% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+8/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
39
Grade E$2.64-13.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
36
Grade E$2.28-1.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
34
Grade E$2.24-2.7% Next Q
Current
31
Grade E$2.18-9.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (39) → E (31)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TMQ Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TMQ currently carries a cautious 31/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.95) and Max Pain ($2.29) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $7.61.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TMQ• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TMQ Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Nov 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 31%NO 69%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±10.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (TMQ)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for TMQ.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TMQ)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TMQ's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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TMQ // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -49.42%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $2.31H $2.31L $2.18C $2.18VOL 1.86M
RES: $3.05SUP: $1.87SMA50: $2.95SMA200: $3.76
$5.30$4.39$3.48$2.57$1.66RES $3.05SUP $1.87$2.182026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TMQ Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TMQ Butterfly Map → + Track TMQ →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +17.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TMQ today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TMQ. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TMQ today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TMQ)

Materials Rank #227 of 270 ⚔️ CMCL vs TMQ Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (TMQ vs. CMCL, ITRG, VGZ, NAK)

Industry: Precious Metals (74 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) ranks #227 by composite RQD confidence (31/100, grade E) and #185 by equity capitalization ($397.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TMQ leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while TMQ leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -34.0% ROIC and — gross margin. CMCL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 45/100 (D) compared with TMQ at 31/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TMQ ACTIVE
Trilogy Metals Inc.
E 31/100 — — -34.0% -0.46% $397.2M Benchmark Subject
CMCL
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc
D 45/100 — — — -1.18% $391.5M /cmcl-vs-tmq →
ITRG
Integra Resources Corp.
D 45/100 — — — -0.48% $426.0M /itrg-vs-tmq →
VGZ
Vista Gold Corp
D- 39/100 — — -35.0% -0.80% $363.5M /vgz-vs-tmq →
NAK
Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd.
D 45/100 — — — -14.65% $455.5M /nak-vs-tmq →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-11-30 • CIK 0001543418 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-11-30), Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) reported GAAP revenue of $66.1M (+17.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $56.2M , and -7.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$42.2M, operating cash flow of -$3.2M, and free cash flow of -$3.2M (-77.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, TMQ closed FY2025 with $157.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-11-30 $66.1M -$42.2M -$3.2M -$3.2M $157.3M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-11-30 $56.2M -$8.6M -$1.8M -$1.8M $133.7M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-11-30 $71.5M -$15.0M -$3.1M -$3.1M — —

3. TMQ Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TMQ stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Trilogy Metals Inc. (NYSE: TMQ) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 31/100 at a spot price of $2.18 (-0.46% 1D, market cap $397.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, TMQ ranks #227 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TMQ compare to CMCL and ITRG in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Precious Metals), TMQ carries a Roarable E (31/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -34.0%. By comparison, CMCL (Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $391.5M) and ITRG (Integra Resources Corp.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $426.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TMQ leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TMQ leads on capital efficiency (-34.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TMQ?

Per TMQ's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-11-30, CIK 0001543418), Trilogy Metals Inc. generated $66.1M in revenue (+17.7% YoY), -$42.2M in net income, and -$3.2M in free cash flow against $157.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TMQ trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TMQ last traded at $2.18 (-0.46% on volume of 1,460,209 shares), positioning the stock -26.10% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.95) and -42.02% below its 200-day simple moving average ($3.76). Across its 52-week range of $1.94 to $7.25, TMQ sits at the 4.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 34.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.5% ($1.95 to $2.41).

Direct Sub-Reports: TMQ RQD Cockpit TMQ 12M Forecast TMQ Earnings & Move TMQ Dividends & DRIP TMQ Insiders & 13F TMQ Whale Options TMQ Profit Sankey TMQ News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 31/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TMQ — Trilogy Metals Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-11-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 31/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $2.18 (-0.46% 1D, market capitalization $397.2M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -34.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of -0.78%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Trilogy Metals Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Materials sector and Precious Metals industry. The profile identifies a market capitalization of $0.4B. Revenue is reported as — in each available period and the operating margin and gross margin are both listed as 0%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-11-30), Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) reported $66.1M in annual revenue (up from $56.2M in FY2024, +17.7% YoY) and -$42.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($71.5M revenue, -$15.0M net income) through FY2025, TMQ scaled operating cash flow to -$3.2M and free cash flow to -$3.2M, backed by $157.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 31/100): Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -0.78% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1.94 – $7.25 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Precious Metals (Materials), TMQ carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can TMQ sustain or expand its — operating margin and -34.0% ROIC against Precious Metals peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $66.1M and free cash flow of -$3.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TMQ's equity valuation to Materials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

TMQ Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TMQ Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TMQ Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.18?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TMQ 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TMQ:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2.83 (+29.2%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance-sheet pillar scores 10/20 with reported cash of $51.6M in FY 2025 against a 2.5 Altman Z-Score.

The street is overcomplicating Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ). Forensic balance-sheet pillar scores 10/20 with reported cash of $51.6M in FY 2025 against a 2.5 Altman Z-Score.. With an RQD score of 31/100 (E) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 10/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $2.37.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@MultipleCompression Shorting a 3/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $2.19 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Materials.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.75 (-20.1%)
Spot @ $2.19

ROIC of -34% and FCF yield of -0.78% place the cash engine pillar at 8/20 under a Strong Sell grade.

ROIC of -34% and FCF yield of -0.78% place the cash engine pillar at 8/20 under a Strong Sell grade.. Look at the math on TMQ: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for -34.0% ROIC and 0.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Precious Metals demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $1.93 before getting long.

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