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Stock Ratings / ETF / Index / TLT / options
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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$81.84 +0.61% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $81.77

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) earns a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence. As an exchange-traded fund, single-company GAAP gross margins, Altman-Z, and CEO Form 4 insider metrics are N/A for fund structure; its score reflects basket trend, institutional flow, and macro regime alignment.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $54.00B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TLT Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TLT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: TLT) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $81.84 (+0.61% 1D, market cap $54.00B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 40 tracked ETF / Index issuers, TLT ranks #21 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TLT compare to IBIT and XLF in the ETF / Index sector?
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Within the ETF / Index sector (Long-Duration US Treasuries), TLT carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of N/A (ETF), and ROIC of N/A (ETF). By comparison, IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $52.00B) and XLF (Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $48.00B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TLT leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TLT leads on capital efficiency (— ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TLT?
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For iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), key quantitative strengths include Diversified Long-Duration US Treasuries basket eliminates single-company earnings blowup risk. and Institutional 13F desks and index options flow show constructive basket demand., while primary risk factors center on Corporate GAAP gross margin, Altman-Z, and Form 4 insider metrics are N/A for ETF fund structures. and Underlying index basket remains sensitive to Federal Reserve liquidity and Treasury yield swings.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $81.77 (-0.08%)🧬 ETF Open-End Share Creation/Redemption⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • Liquid Basket
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510057
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D
Fund (6)Whales (16)Struct (15)Macro (4)Flow (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.5% Base Target
$96 Bull$81 Base$64 Bear
📬 FREE TLT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TLT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TLT SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (28% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±1.8% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • ETF Open-End Share Creation/Redemption

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (63) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
49
Grade D$78.37+2.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
52
Grade C-$80.13+1.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
54
Grade C-$81.63+0.3% Next Q
Current
57
Grade D+$81.84-0.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (49) → D+ (57)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TLT Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, TLT faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Corporate GAAP gross margin, Altman-Z, and Form 4 insider metrics are N/A for ETF fund structures.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Underlying index basket remains sensitive to Federal Reserve liquidity and Treasury yield swings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($80.48) or 200D SMA ($84.56) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($81.47) toward Bear Floor ($63.55).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TLT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TLT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Quarterly Rebalance / Distribution) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±1.8%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (TLT)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for TLT.

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FTC Disclosure: Roarable may receive partner referral compensation at no cost to you. Partner relationships never influence RQD scores.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TLT)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TLT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TLT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -3.67%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $81.34H $81.84L $81.34C $81.84VOL 41.03M
RES: $81.96SUP: $74.58SMA50: $80.48SMA200: $84.56
$89.00$85.60$82.19$78.78$75.37RES $81.96SUP $74.58$81.842026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TLT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TLT Butterfly Map → + Track TLT →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
ETF / Index Composite — N/A for Fund Structure

Single-issuer corporate Reverse-DCF growth hurdles do not apply to index funds or ETFs.

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
DEVELOPING · Long-Bond Auction Tail Base Watch

Trigger: $83.56 • Invalidation: $79.55

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TLT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video 💡 One Event, Five Markets: 10Y Real Yields vs. SPY, TLT, GLD, USO & IBIT (soren-halewick) 💡 Starter Kit: Rate-Cut & Treasury Duration Proxies (soren-halewick)
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TLT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TLT)

ETF / Index Rank #21 of 40 ⚔️ IBIT vs TLT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head ETF / Index Peer Comparison (TLT vs. IBIT, XLF, SCHD, IWM)

Industry: Long-Duration US Treasuries (1 Tracked Issuers)

Across 40 tracked ETF / Index securities in the Roarable RQD universe, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) ranks #21 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #10 by equity capitalization ($54.00B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TLT leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while TLT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with ETF composite structure and benchmark tracking. SCHD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 77/100 (B+) compared with TLT at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TLT ACTIVE
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
D+ 57/100 — — — +0.61% $54.00B Benchmark Subject
IBIT
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF
D+ 56/100 — — — -0.94% $52.00B /ibit-vs-tlt →
XLF
Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund
B 74/100 — — — +1.42% $48.00B /xlf-vs-tlt →
SCHD
Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
B+ 77/100 — — — +1.46% $65.00B /schd-vs-tlt →
IWM
iShares Russell 2000 Small-Cap ETF
C+ 69/100 — — — +0.96% $72.00B /iwm-vs-tlt →

2. TLT ETF Structure, Technical Regime & Benchmark Role Breakdown

EXCHANGE-TRADED FUND / COMPOSITE VEHICLE • NASDAQ

Because iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is structured as an exchange-traded fund / composite basket rather than a single operating corporation filing 10-K GAAP income statements, Roarable evaluates TLT on technical trend regime, moving-average dispersion, 52-week range positioning, relative strength (RSI-14), and secondary-market share volume liquidity. At $81.84, TLT trades vs. its 50-day SMA of $80.48 and 200-day SMA of $84.56 on daily liquidity of 41,025,196 shares.

50D SMA Level
$80.48
Medium-Term Trend Anchor
200D SMA Level
$84.56
Institutional Secular Line
52-Week Range Pos
37.0%
$76.43 – $90.86
RSI-14 Momentum
63.0
BULLISH MOMENTUM
Volume Liquidity
41,025,196
AUM Cap $54.00B

3. TLT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TLT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: TLT) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $81.84 (+0.61% 1D, market cap $54.00B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 40 tracked ETF / Index issuers, TLT ranks #21 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TLT compare to IBIT and XLF in the ETF / Index sector?

Within the ETF / Index sector (Long-Duration US Treasuries), TLT carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of N/A (ETF), and ROIC of N/A (ETF). By comparison, IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $52.00B) and XLF (Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $48.00B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TLT leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TLT leads on capital efficiency (— ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TLT?

For iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), key quantitative strengths include Diversified Long-Duration US Treasuries basket eliminates single-company earnings blowup risk. and Institutional 13F desks and index options flow show constructive basket demand., while primary risk factors center on Corporate GAAP gross margin, Altman-Z, and Form 4 insider metrics are N/A for ETF fund structures. and Underlying index basket remains sensitive to Federal Reserve liquidity and Treasury yield swings.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TLT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TLT last traded at $81.84 (+0.61% on volume of 41,025,196 shares), positioning the stock +1.69% above its 50-day simple moving average ($80.48) and -3.22% below its 200-day simple moving average ($84.56). Across its 52-week range of $76.43 to $90.86, TLT sits at the 37.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($80.37 to $83.31).

TLT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is TLT's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for TLT.

Direct Sub-Reports: TLT RQD Cockpit TLT 12M Forecast TLT Earnings & Move TLT Dividends & DRIP TLT Insiders & 13F TLT Whale Options TLT Profit Sankey TLT News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 57/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

TLT — iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T14:08:39Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, TLT scores 57 out of 100, graded D+ and labeled "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim (ETF Composite Methodology)." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 6 / 20. Reported as ROIC 0% and FCF yield 0%. Because this is an ETF rather than an operating company, these cash-generation measures do not map cleanly onto the fund's economics, and this pillar is the weakest contributor to the score.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 16 / 20. Described as reflecting institutional accumulation and options positioning. This is a relative strength in the composite.
  • Insider Conviction: 16 / 20. Described as reflecting SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. This is a relative strength in the composite.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 4 / 20. Reported as Beta 1.0 with sector sensitivity. This is the lowest pillar and signals that the score is most exposed to the interest-rate and macro environment.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 15 / 20. Reported as Altman Z 2.5, Piotroski F 6/9, and Debt/Equity 0.5. These figures are in a moderate range.

For a prospective investor evaluating the fund today, the composite points to weak scores on the cash-engine and macro-fit pillars, partly offset by institutional and insider flow scores and a moderate forensic profile. The methodology is designed for operating companies, so the implication is that the rating is best read as a signal about positioning and rate sensitivity rather than a valuation of underlying business cash flows. The current price of 81.84 sits within a 52-week range of $76.43 to $90.86, with a reported daily change of 0.61%.

Business

Per the profile section, TLT is an exchange-traded fund in the ETF / Index sector, classified under the Long-Duration US Treasuries industry and listed on NASDAQ. It is described as a liquid institutional fund tracking long-duration US Treasuries, with approximately $54.0B in assets under management. The source data does not describe the fund's sales channels or fee structure, and it contains no operating business model beyond this tracking description.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is reported as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks are identified in the source data. The only sector context provided is the classification as ETF / Index within the Long-Duration US Treasuries industry.

Open Questions

  • What are the fund's expense ratio and tracking performance relative to its index, which the source data does not provide?
  • How do the 13F institutional and Form 4 / Congressional flows referenced in the RQD pillars break down by holder and by date?
  • What duration and yield characteristics of the underlying Treasury holdings drive the Macro Regime Fit score of 4 / 20?
  • How should the zero ROIC and FCF yield figures be interpreted for a fund structure, given the methodology was built around operating companies?
  • What is the trading volume trend over time, given a single-session volume of 41,025,196 shares?

TLT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TLT Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TLT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $81.84?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TLT 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TLT:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $88.39 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is TLT (D+ • RQD 57/100) a Buy at $81.84?

Welcome to the TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 57/100 (Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim (ETF Composite Methodology)) in Long-Duration US Treasuries. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $65.47 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $81.84

Pump the brakes on TLT — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on TLT, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MA MacroHawk_NYC Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $104.76 (+28.0%)
Spot @ $81.84

TLT cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on TLT, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Long-Duration US Treasuries and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $81.84 (52-wk range $76.43 - $90.86), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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