What is TGT's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for TGT.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / TGT / options

DG (75) DLTR (80) BURL (57) BJ (82) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Target Corporation (TGT) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$154.38 +1.69% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $154.56

Target Corporation (TGT) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $70.13B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TGT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $154.38 (+1.69% 1D, market cap $70.13B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TGT ranks #176 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TGT compare to DG and DLTR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Department/Specialty Retail Stores), TGT carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.6x, gross margin of 27.9%, and ROIC of 19.2%. By comparison, DG (Dollar General Corporation) holds a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 19.0x, ROIC 10.4%, cap $29.19B) and DLTR (Dollar Tree Inc.) posts a B+ grade (80/100 RQD, P/E 19.3x, ROIC 23.9%, cap $25.12B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TGT leads on earnings multiple (18.6x) while BJ leads on capital efficiency (25.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TGT?

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Per TGT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0000027419), Target Corporation generated $104.78B in revenue (-1.7% YoY), $3.71B in net income, and $2.83B in free cash flow against $59.49B in total assets and $13.92B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $154.55 (+0.11%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 2.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TGT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TGT SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 2.7% FCF Margin ($2.83B FCF) & 27.9% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (51.6) create a -9 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B+$155.31-1.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B$152.38-2.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B$148.96+3.6% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$154.38+1.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B+ (76) → C+ (68)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TGT Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, TGT faces multiple-compression risk if 18.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 25.4% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($156.33) or 200D SMA ($134.65) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($161.33) toward Bear Floor ($125.84).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TGT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TGT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 30, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 68%NO 32%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±5.8%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (TGT)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for TGT.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating TGT & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on TGT
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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TGT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +20.84%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $151.8H $154.4L $151.8C $154.4VOL 5.27M

RES: $155.7SUP: $146.6SMA50: $156.3SMA200: $134.7

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TGT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TGT Butterfly Map → + Track TGT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

11.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -1.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TGT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TGT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TGT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TGT)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #176 of 1009 ⚔️ DG vs TGT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (TGT vs. DG, DLTR, BURL, BJ)

Industry: Department/Specialty Retail Stores (11 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Target Corporation (TGT) ranks #176 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #34 by equity capitalization ($70.13B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TGT leads on earnings valuation at 18.6x trailing P/E, while BJ leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 25.3% ROIC and 18.6% gross margin. BJ currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 82/100 (A-) compared with TGT at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TGT ACTIVE Target Corporation	C+	68/100	18.6x	27.9%	19.2%	+1.69%	$70.13B	Benchmark Subject
DG Dollar General Corporation	B	75/100	19.0x	30.7%	10.4%	+1.70%	$29.19B	/dg-vs-tgt →
DLTR Dollar Tree Inc.	B+	80/100	19.3x	36.4%	23.9%	+1.39%	$25.12B	/dltr-vs-tgt →
BURL Burlington Stores Inc.	D+	57/100	25.0x	43.8%	22.8%	-2.17%	$14.89B	/burl-vs-tgt →
BJ BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings Inc.	A-	82/100	23.0x	18.6%	25.3%	+1.81%	$13.56B	/bj-vs-tgt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-31 • CIK 0000027419 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31), Target Corporation (TGT) reported GAAP revenue of $104.78B (-1.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $106.57B , and -2.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $3.71B, operating cash flow of $6.56B, and free cash flow of $2.83B (-36.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, TGT closed FY2025 with $59.49B in total assets against $13.92B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.69, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-01-31	$104.78B	$3.71B	$6.56B	$2.83B	$59.49B	$13.92B
FY2024 (FY)	2025-02-01	$106.57B	$4.09B	$7.37B	$4.48B	$57.77B	$13.52B
FY2023 (FY)	2024-02-03	$107.41B	$4.14B	$8.62B	$3.79B	$128.89B	$30.16B

3. TGT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TGT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does TGT compare to DG and DLTR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TGT?

Where is TGT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TGT last traded at $154.38 (+1.69% on volume of 5,266,794 shares), positioning the stock -1.25% below its 50-day simple moving average ($156.33) and +14.65% above its 200-day simple moving average ($134.65). Across its 52-week range of $83.44 to $170.75, TGT sits at the 81.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.8% ($145.43 to $163.33).

Direct Sub-Reports: TGT RQD Cockpit TGT 12M Forecast TGT Earnings & Move TGT Dividends & DRIP TGT Insiders & 13F TGT Whale Options TGT Profit Sankey TGT News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 68/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TGT — Target Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2026-01-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Target Corporation (TGT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 68/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $154.38 (+1.69% 1D, market capitalization $70.13B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 19.2%, gross margin of 27.9%, operating margin of 4.9%, and free cash flow yield of 4.11%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (14/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.01x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.69, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.74x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Target Corporation is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Department/Specialty Retail Stores industry. Its reported revenue of $104.78B for FY 2025 indicates a large-scale retail operation.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-01-31), Target Corporation (TGT) reported $104.78B in annual revenue (up from $106.57B in FY2024, -1.7% YoY) and $3.71B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($107.41B revenue, $4.14B net income) through FY2025, TGT scaled operating cash flow to $6.56B and free cash flow to $2.83B, backed by $59.49B in total assets against $13.92B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 68/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 4.11% and institutional whale pillar of 14/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 14/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $83.44 – $170.75 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 18.6x trailing P/E and 8.9x EV/EBITDA against 4.9% operating margins and a 1.01x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector correlations beyond the stated beta of 1.

Key Question #1: Can TGT sustain or expand its 4.9% operating margin and 19.2% ROIC against Department/Specialty Retail Stores peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $104.78B and free cash flow of $2.83B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $13.92B in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is TGT's 17.3x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.01x)?

TGT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Target Corporation (TGT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TGT Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 22h ago

Target Corporation (TGT) Stock Price, News, Quote & History

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Target Corporation (TGT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST TradingView • 1d ago

Can Target's Non-Merchandise Growth Become a Bigger Earnings Driver?

TradingView report covering Target Corporation (TGT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Target (TGT) Stock Slides as Market Rises: Facts to Know Before You Trade

Yahoo Finance report covering Target Corporation (TGT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Target turns to another fan favorite to boost sales (TGT:NYSE)

Seeking Alpha report covering Target Corporation (TGT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE StockInvest.us • 1d ago

Target Stock Price Forecast. Should You Buy TGT?

StockInvest.us report covering Target Corporation (TGT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE The Globe and Mail • 1d ago

Should You Buy, Hold or Sell Target Stock at its Current Valuation?

The Globe and Mail report covering Target Corporation (TGT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Target Corporation $TGT Stock: Farther Finance Advisors LLC Grows Holdings

MarketBeat report covering Target Corporation (TGT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Target Corporation (TGT) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on It

Yahoo Finance report covering Target Corporation (TGT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TGT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $154.38?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TGT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $194.52 (+26.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Strong 19.2% ROIC and constructive insider-flow signal support a sound, cash-generative business at 17.3x forward earnings.

Long TGT at $154.38 targeting $194.52. Strong 19.2% ROIC and constructive insider-flow signal support a sound, cash-generative business at 17.3x forward earnings.. Institutional whale score is 14/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $83.44 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@SkepticalCFA Fair point on 18.6x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Department/Specialty Retail Stores. If gross margin (27.9%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $120.42 (-22.0%)

Spot @ $154.38

Thin 4.9% operating margin, declining revenue and net income since FY 2023, and beta of 1.01 leave little earnings cushion or defensive

I respect the product at Target Corporation, but the stock at $154.38 is a different story. Thin 4.9% operating margin, declining revenue and net income since FY 2023, and beta of 1.01 leave little earnings cushion or defensive insulation.. FCF yield is 4.11% and RQD sits at 68/100 (C+) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?