Stock Ratings / Financials / TD / forecast

SAN (50) MUFG (61) SMFG (59) RY (64) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$124.50 -2.14% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $123.78

Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $207.77B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TD Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Toronto Dominion Bank (NYSE: TD) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $124.50 (-2.14% 1D, market cap $207.77B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, TD ranks #233 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TD compare to SAN and MUFG in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Commercial Banks), TD carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, SAN (Banco Santander S.A. Sponsored ADR (Spain)) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $170.08B) and MUFG (Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc.) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $260.38B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TD leads on earnings multiple (32.8x) while TD leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TD?

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For Toronto Dominion Bank (TD), key quantitative strengths include Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. and Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs., while primary risk factors center on Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $123.78 (-0.58%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 15.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (66/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TD SCORES 66/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (26% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±3.4% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (65) create a -10 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$117.95+3.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$122.13+3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$125.78-1% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$124.50+1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (58) → C+ (66)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TD Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, TD faces multiple-compression risk if 32.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($120.88) or 200D SMA ($110.91) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($128.98) toward Bear Floor ($100.60).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 66%NO 34%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your TD Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $124.50: 80.3 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $100.60

$8,080

$-1,920 (-19.2%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $128.98

$10,360

+$360 (+3.6%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $152.20

$12,225

+$2,225 (+22.2%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$134	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$143	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$115	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TD Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

TD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +17.18%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $126.5H $127.2L $124.5C $124.5VOL 1.13M

RES: $128.3SUP: $111.4SMA50: $120.9SMA200: $110.9

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TD Butterfly Map → + Track TD →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

25.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +20.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TD)

Financials Rank #233 of 1096 ⚔️ SAN vs TD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TD vs. SAN, MUFG, SMFG, RY)

Industry: Commercial Banks (34 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) ranks #233 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #13 by equity capitalization ($207.77B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TD leads on earnings valuation at 32.8x trailing P/E, while TD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and — gross margin. TD currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 66/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TD ACTIVE Toronto Dominion Bank	C+	66/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	-2.14%	$207.77B	Benchmark Subject
SAN Banco Santander S.A. Sponsored ADR (Spain)	D	50/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	-4.77%	$170.08B	/san-vs-td →
MUFG Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc.	C-	61/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	-1.73%	$260.38B	/mufg-vs-td →
SMFG Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc Unsponsored American	C-	59/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	-1.86%	$157.38B	/smfg-vs-td →
RY Royal Bank Of Canada	C	64/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	-1.48%	$285.23B	/ry-vs-td →

2. TD Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) operates in Commercial Banks (Financials) with an equity capitalization of $207.77B, trailing P/E of 32.8x, forward P/E of 27.6x, and EV/EBITDA of 21.0x. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of 13.9%, net profit margin of 10.9%, ROIC of 9.9%, and free cash flow yield of 2.21%, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.

3. TD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does TD compare to SAN and MUFG in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TD?

Where is TD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TD last traded at $124.50 (-2.14% on volume of 1,314,870 shares), positioning the stock +2.99% above its 50-day simple moving average ($120.88) and +12.25% above its 200-day simple moving average ($110.91). Across its 52-week range of $79.52 to $127.96, TD sits at the 92.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 65.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.4% ($120.27 to $128.73).

TD Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is TD's 12-month stock price target?

Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $128.98 (+3.6% from $124.50), with a bull-case target of $152.2 and a bear-case floor of $100.6.

Is TD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates TD C+ (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 66/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: TD RQD Cockpit TD 12M Forecast TD Earnings & Move TD Dividends & DRIP TD Insiders & 13F TD Whale Options TD Profit Sankey TD News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 66/100 (C+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

TD — Toronto Dominion Bank: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T14:07:54Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, TD scores 66 out of 100, earning a C+ grade and the verdict "Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout." The five pillars are:

Fundamental Cash Engine: 12 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 9.9% and an FCF yield of 2.21%. For an investor, this suggests the business earns a moderate return on invested capital, but the cash return relative to the purchase price is thin, which limits the margin of safety on a cash-flow basis.
Whale 13F Flow: 17 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this is the strongest pillar and reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. This is the main upside driver in the rating: sustained institutional buying can support price momentum even when valuation is full.
Insider Conviction: 12 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The score is mid-range, indicating neither a strong insider buying signal nor a clear selling signal.
Macro Regime Fit: 10 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects a beta of 1.12 and sector sensitivity. For an investor, the stock is modestly more volatile than the market, so it may amplify broader market moves in either direction.
Forensic Balance Sheet: 15 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this reflects an Altman Z of 2.5, a Piotroski F of 8/9, and a Debt/Equity of 0.5. These figures point to a generally sound balance sheet, which is a defensive strength.

Taken together, the rating suggests a stock with solid institutional support and a reasonably healthy balance sheet, offset by a demanding valuation. Per the market data, the trailing P/E of 32.8 and forward P/E of 27.6 are elevated, and the 2.21% FCF yield offers limited cash return at this price. The verdict's "Watch for Breakout" language implies that upside would likely depend on a catalyst that justifies the current multiple, rather than on valuation support alone. A prospective investor would weigh the institutional momentum against the valuation tradeoff.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
$127.22	$207.77B	32.8	27.6	21	3.87	0%	1.12	$79.52 - $127.96	9.9%

Business

Per the profile, Toronto Dominion Bank (The) (TD) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating in the Commercial Banks industry. Per the profile, its market capitalization is $207.8B. Not available in source data for product mix, customer segments, or revenue sources.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links. Upstream and downstream dependencies are not available in source data. Sector correlations are not available in source data. Second-order bottlenecks are not available in source data. A prospective investor should note that the absence of mapped links means this analysis cannot identify specific ripple effects from the graph itself.

Open Questions

What are the specific terms, size, and timing of the new share repurchase plan, and does it represent a material change in capital return?
What is the basis of the valuation downgrade flagged in the Seeking Alpha report, and how does it compare to the forward P/E of 27.6?
What are TD's reported revenue, operating income, net income, free cash flow, cash, and debt across recent periods?
Which specific institutions and insiders are driving the 13F accumulation and Form 4 activity behind the pillar scores?
What are the Butterfly supply-chain links and sector correlations for TD, given the graph currently lists none?

TD Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TD Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 7h ago

What Is Toronto Dominion Bank (TSX:TD) Signaling With A New Share Repurchase Plan?

Yahoo Finance report covering Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Seeking Alpha • 10h ago

Toronto-Dominion Bank: Valuation Is Getting Stretched (Rating Downgrade) (NYSE:TD)

Seeking Alpha report covering Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance UK • 13h ago

The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) stock price, news, quote and history

Yahoo Finance UK report covering Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingKey • 16h ago

Toronto-Dominion Bank Stock (TD) Moved Down by 3.23% on Oct 7: Key Drivers Unveiled

TradingKey report covering Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE StockInvest.us • 19h ago

Toronto-dominion Bank Stock Price Forecast. Should You Buy TD.TO?

StockInvest.us report covering Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST PR Newswire • 22h ago

TD Bank Group Receives Regulatory Approval for New Share Buyback Program

PR Newswire report covering Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE GuruFocus • 1d ago

Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) Shares Rise 3.51% Following Launch of AI-Powered TD Credit Assist

GuruFocus report covering Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Toronto-Dominion Bank: The Buy Window Is Shut Now (Downgrade) (NYSE:TD)

Seeking Alpha report covering Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TD Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $124.50?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TD 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $137.40 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is TD (C+ • RQD 66/100) a Buy at $127.22?

Welcome to the TD (Toronto Dominion Bank) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 66/100 (Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout) in Commercial Banks. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (32.8x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $96.69 (-24.0%)

Spot @ $127.22

Pump the brakes on TD — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on TD, but look at what you are paying: 32.8x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Toronto Dominion Bank expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

CA CashFlowKing Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $161.57 (+27.0%)

Spot @ $127.22

TD cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on TD, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Commercial Banks and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $127.22 (52-wk range $79.52 - $127.96), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.