How profitable is Smurfit WestRock plc (SW)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), SW converted $31.2B of revenue into a 19.4% gross margin, 5.5% operating margin, and $2.0B in free cash flow (6.4% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / SW / financials

PKG (75) KMB (72) AVY (74) WMS (71) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

Q: Where is SW trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SW last traded at $43.40 (+0.72% on volume of 7,201,627 shares), positioning the stock -0.46% below its 50-day simple moving average ($43.60) and -0.12% below its 200-day simple moving average ($43.45). Across its 52-week range of $32.73 to $52.65, SW sits at the 53.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.2% ($40.28 to $46.52).

$43.40 +0.72% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $43.37

Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $22.60B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SW Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Smurfit WestRock plc (NYSE: SW) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $43.40 (+0.72% 1D, market cap $22.60B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SW ranks #408 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SW compare to PKG and KMB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Containers/Packaging), SW carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 31.9x, gross margin of 19.4%, and ROIC of 4.7%. By comparison, PKG (Packaging Corporation of America) holds a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 29.3x, ROIC 10.9%, cap $22.88B) and KMB (Kimberly-Clark Corporation) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 18.1x, ROIC 43.6%, cap $35.90B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KMB leads on earnings multiple (18.1x) while KMB leads on capital efficiency (43.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SW?

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Per SW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002005951), Smurfit WestRock plc generated $31.18B in revenue (+47.7% YoY), $699.0M in net income, and $1.99B in free cash flow against $45.16B in total assets and $12.06B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $43.37 (-0.06%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 6.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SW)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SW SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.49 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (53) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$40.75+1.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$41.46-2.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$40.33+7.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$43.40-0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (48) → D+ (56)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SW Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, SW faces multiple-compression risk if 31.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($43.60) or 200D SMA ($43.45) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($43.01) toward Bear Floor ($33.55).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SW• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SW Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How SW Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$1.99B (6.4% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $12.09B

FY24

Rev $21.11B

FY25

Rev $31.18B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$31.18B	19.4%	5.5%	$699.0M	$1.99B	4.6%
FY 2024	$21.11B	19.9%	4.8%	$319.0M	$533.1M	2.8%
FY 2023	$12.09B	19.4%	11.3%	$825.0M	$1.01B	12.4%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SW)

✓Walkthrough of SW's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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SW // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +14.30%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $42.53H $43.40L $42.53C $43.40VOL 5.25M

RES: $43.77SUP: $38.85SMA50: $43.60SMA200: $43.45

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SW Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SW Butterfly Map → + Track SW →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

24.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +47.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SW today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SW. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SW today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SW)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #408 of 1009 ⚔️ PKG vs SW Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (SW vs. PKG, KMB, AVY, WMS)

Industry: Containers/Packaging (17 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) ranks #408 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #89 by equity capitalization ($22.60B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KMB leads on earnings valuation at 18.1x trailing P/E, while KMB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 43.6% ROIC and 36.0% gross margin. PKG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with SW at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SW ACTIVE Smurfit WestRock plc	D+	56/100	31.9x	19.4%	4.7%	+0.72%	$22.60B	Benchmark Subject
PKG Packaging Corporation of America	B	75/100	29.3x	21.0%	10.9%	+0.71%	$22.88B	/pkg-vs-sw →
KMB Kimberly-Clark Corporation	B	72/100	18.1x	36.0%	43.6%	+0.29%	$35.90B	/kmb-vs-sw →
AVY Avery Dennison Corporation	B	74/100	20.1x	28.8%	17.4%	+2.63%	$13.81B	/avy-vs-sw →
WMS Advanced Drainage Systems Inc.	B-	71/100	24.0x	38.3%	22.3%	+2.63%	$10.21B	/wms-vs-sw →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002005951 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) reported GAAP revenue of $31.18B (+47.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $21.11B , and +157.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $699.0M, operating cash flow of $3.39B, and free cash flow of $1.99B (+273.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, SW closed FY2025 with $45.16B in total assets against $12.06B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.49, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$31.18B	$699.0M	$3.39B	$1.99B	$45.16B	$12.06B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$21.11B	$319.0M	$1.48B	$533.1M	$43.76B	$11.87B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$12.09B	$825.0M	$1.56B	$1.01B	$14.51B	$3.40B

3. SW Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does SW compare to PKG and KMB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SW?

Where is SW trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SW last traded at $43.40 (+0.72% on volume of 7,201,627 shares), positioning the stock -0.46% below its 50-day simple moving average ($43.60) and -0.12% below its 200-day simple moving average ($43.45). Across its 52-week range of $32.73 to $52.65, SW sits at the 53.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.2% ($40.28 to $46.52).

Direct Sub-Reports: SW RQD Cockpit SW 12M Forecast SW Earnings & Move SW Dividends & DRIP SW Insiders & 13F SW Whale Options SW Profit Sankey SW News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 56/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SW — Smurfit WestRock plc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 56/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $43.40 (+0.72% 1D, market capitalization $22.60B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 4.7%, gross margin of 19.4%, operating margin of 5.5%, and free cash flow yield of 8.92%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 0.88x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.49, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.61x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Containers/Packaging industry, profile. Per the market data, the company reports a gross margin of 19.4%, an operating margin of 5.5%, and a net margin of 2.2%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) reported $31.18B in annual revenue (up from $21.11B in FY2024, +47.7% YoY) and $699.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($12.09B revenue, $825.0M net income) through FY2025, SW scaled operating cash flow to $3.39B and free cash flow to $1.99B, backed by $45.16B in total assets against $12.06B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 56/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 8.92% and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $32.73 – $52.65 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 31.9x trailing P/E and 11.2x EV/EBITDA against 5.5% operating margins and a 0.88x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream suppliers, downstream customers, and sector correlations are — The sector and industry classification (Consumer Discretionary / Containers/Packaging) is the only sector-level context provided.

Key Question #1: Can SW sustain or expand its 5.5% operating margin and 4.7% ROIC against Containers/Packaging peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $31.18B and free cash flow of $1.99B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $12.06B in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is SW's 26.8x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.88x)?

SW Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SW Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 21h ago

Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW) Stock Price, News, Quote & History

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Trefis • 1d ago

Why Is Smurfit WestRock Stock Falling?

Trefis report covering Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE 24/7 Wall St. • 1d ago

Smurfit Westrock (SW) Stock Price, News & Analysis

24/7 Wall St. report covering Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Smurfit Westrock Set to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

TradingView report covering Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Smurfit Westrock: Another Guidance Cut, But 2027 Recovery Keeps Us Bullish (NYSE:SW)

Seeking Alpha report covering Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE GuruFocus • 1d ago

Smurfit WestRock PLC (SW) Stock Down 5.2% -- Now Undervalued? GF Score: 85/100

GuruFocus report covering Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE marketscreener.com • 1d ago

Earnings Flash (SW) Smurfit Westrock plc Posts Q3 Adjusted EPS $0.45 per Share, vs. FactSet Est of $0.61

marketscreener.com report covering Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Smurfit Westrock (SW) Stock Slides After Q3 Results Expose Margin Strain

Yahoo Finance report covering Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SW Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $43.40?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SW 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $51.28 (+19.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

An 8.92% FCF yield and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 point to cash generation and financial hygiene that could support the stock if the fo

Don't sleep on SW's setup in Consumer Discretionary. An 8.92% FCF yield and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 point to cash generation and financial hygiene that could support the stock if the forward P/E of 26.8 is realized.. Beta of 0.88 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (56/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — SW's 12/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $33.61 (-22.0%)

Spot @ $43.09

A 4.7% ROIC, an Altman Z-Score of 1.49, and a guidance-cut headline suggest weak returns and balance-sheet stress against a trailing P/

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short SW above $43.09. A 4.7% ROIC, an Altman Z-Score of 1.49, and a guidance-cut headline suggest weak returns and balance-sheet stress against a trailing P/E of 31.9.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20) and FCF yield (8.92%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $52.65.