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Stock Ratings / Health Care / SUPN
ZLAB (28) PGEN (33) NAMS (26) PHVS (59) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SUPN) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$41.92 +0.19% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $41.85

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SUPN) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.44B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SUPN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SUPN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: SUPN) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $41.92 (+0.19% 1D, market cap $2.44B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, SUPN ranks #189 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SUPN compare to ZLAB and PGEN in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), SUPN carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 89.6%, and ROIC of -4.5%. By comparison, ZLAB (Zai Lab Limited) holds a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.48B) and PGEN (Precigen Inc.) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.48B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SUPN leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while SUPN leads on capital efficiency (-4.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SUPN?
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Per SUPN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001356576), Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $719.0M in revenue (+8.6% YoY), -$38.6M in net income, and $46.0M in free cash flow against $1.45B in total assets and $175.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $41.85 (-0.16%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.04% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 6.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510057
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C
Cash (12)Whales (8)SEC (16)Macro (9)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.5% Base Target
$63 Bull$42 Base$33 Bear
📬 FREE SUPN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SUPN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SUPN SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.84 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 6.4% FCF Margin ($46.0M FCF) & 89.6% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
49
Grade D$40.18+2.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
52
Grade C-$41.21-0.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
54
Grade C-$41.08+2% Next Q
Current
57
Grade D+$41.92-0.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (49) → D+ (57)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SUPN Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, SUPN faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (-0.04% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 87.1% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($42.29) or 200D SMA ($47.16) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($41.73) toward Bear Floor ($32.55).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SUPN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SUPN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
51.130 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
4.84>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
7 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE20% OF RANGE
L: $38$41.92H: $60
1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (89.6% gross margin), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 12 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on SUPN

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
NEUTRAL (60)

-4.5% ROIC with 89.6% gross margin and 1.89% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (80)

Altman-Z 4.84 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (48)

20/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 9/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like SUPN
  • ✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SUPN)

  • ✓Walkthrough of SUPN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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SUPN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.80%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $41.84H $41.92L $41.84C $41.92VOL 2.82M
RES: $43.87SUP: $36.27SMA50: $42.29SMA200: $47.16
$54.04$49.57$45.10$40.62$36.15RES $43.87SUP $36.27$41.922026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SUPN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SUPN Butterfly Map → + Track SUPN →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
15.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SUPN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SUPN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SUPN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SUPN)

Health Care Rank #189 of 1015 ⚔️ ZLAB vs SUPN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (SUPN vs. ZLAB, PGEN, NAMS, PHVS)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SUPN) ranks #189 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #221 by equity capitalization ($2.44B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SUPN leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while SUPN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -4.5% ROIC and 89.6% gross margin. PHVS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with SUPN at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SUPN ACTIVE
Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D+ 57/100 — 89.6% -4.5% +0.19% $2.44B Benchmark Subject
ZLAB
Zai Lab Limited
E 28/100 — 58.3% -35.0% -1.30% $2.48B /zlab-vs-supn →
PGEN
Precigen Inc.
E 33/100 — — -35.0% +4.52% $2.48B /pgen-vs-supn →
NAMS
NewAmsterdam Pharma Company N.V.
E 26/100 — — -35.0% -3.37% $2.40B /nams-vs-supn →
PHVS
Pharvaris N.V.
C- 59/100 — — — -0.15% $2.34B /phvs-vs-supn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001356576 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SUPN) reported GAAP revenue of $719.0M (+8.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $661.8M , and +18.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$38.6M, operating cash flow of $47.3M, and free cash flow of $46.0M (-73.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, SUPN closed FY2025 with $1.45B in total assets against $175.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.84, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $719.0M -$38.6M $47.3M $46.0M $1.45B $175.9M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $661.8M $73.9M $172.0M $171.2M $1.37B $149.6M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $607.5M $1.3M $111.1M $83.7M $1.34B $313.0M

3. SUPN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SUPN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: SUPN) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $41.92 (+0.19% 1D, market cap $2.44B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, SUPN ranks #189 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SUPN compare to ZLAB and PGEN in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), SUPN carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 89.6%, and ROIC of -4.5%. By comparison, ZLAB (Zai Lab Limited) holds a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.48B) and PGEN (Precigen Inc.) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.48B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SUPN leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while SUPN leads on capital efficiency (-4.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SUPN?

Per SUPN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001356576), Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $719.0M in revenue (+8.6% YoY), -$38.6M in net income, and $46.0M in free cash flow against $1.45B in total assets and $175.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SUPN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SUPN last traded at $41.92 (+0.19% on volume of 2,818,907 shares), positioning the stock -0.87% below its 50-day simple moving average ($42.29) and -11.11% below its 200-day simple moving average ($47.16). Across its 52-week range of $37.54 to $59.68, SUPN sits at the 19.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.6% ($37.90 to $45.94).

Direct Sub-Reports: SUPN RQD Cockpit SUPN 12M Forecast SUPN Earnings & Move SUPN Dividends & DRIP SUPN Insiders & 13F SUPN Whale Options SUPN Profit Sankey SUPN News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 57/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SUPN — Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SUPN) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 57/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $41.92 (+0.19% 1D, market capitalization $2.44B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -4.5%, gross margin of 89.6%, operating margin of -8.7%, and free cash flow yield of 1.89%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 0.88x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 4.84, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.15x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. The financials section reports revenue of $719.0M for FY 2025, indicating a substantial commercial operation. Gross margin is 89.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SUPN) reported $719.0M in annual revenue (up from $661.8M in FY2024, +8.6% YoY) and -$38.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($607.5M revenue, $1.3M net income) through FY2025, SUPN scaled operating cash flow to $47.3M and free cash flow to $46.0M, backed by $1.45B in total assets against $175.9M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 57/100): Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Free cash flow yield of 1.89% and institutional whale pillar of 8/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $37.54 – $59.68 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh current valuation against -8.7% operating margins and a 0.88x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (Health Care), SUPN carries a macro regime beta of 0.88 and gross margin of 89.6%.

  • Key Question #1: Can SUPN sustain or expand its -8.7% operating margin and -4.5% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $719.0M and free cash flow of $46.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $175.9M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is SUPN's 22.0x forward P/E multiple to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.88x)?

SUPN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SUPN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SUPN Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SUPN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $41.92?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SUPN 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SUPN:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $49.47 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue grew from $607.5M in FY 2023 to $719.0M in FY 2025 while debt fell from $313.0M to $175.9M, and the RQD forensic balance sheet

Here is why I am bullish on SUPN here at $41.92: Revenue grew from $607.5M in FY 2023 to $719.0M in FY 2025 while debt fell from $313.0M to $175.9M, and the RQD forensic balance sheet scores 16/20 with an Altman Z-Score of 4.84.. Compare SUPN's -8.7% operating margin and -4.5% ROIC against the rest of Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $39.82 are getting bought.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — SUPN's 16/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $32.70 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $41.92

Operating income swung from $81.7M in FY 2024 to -$62.3M in FY 2025, with ROIC at -4.5% and the RQD rating at 56 (D+, Trim).

I respect the product at Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc., but the stock at $41.92 is a different story. Operating income swung from $81.7M in FY 2024 to -$62.3M in FY 2025, with ROIC at -4.5% and the RQD rating at 56 (D+, Trim).. FCF yield is 1.89% and RQD sits at 57/100 (D+) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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