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Semtech Corporation (SMTC) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$122.38 -3.92% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $121.28

Semtech Corporation (SMTC) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $11.89B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SMTC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Semtech Corporation (NASDAQ: SMTC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $122.38 (-3.92% 1D, market cap $11.89B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, SMTC ranks #253 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SMTC compare to NXT and SWKS in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (Semiconductors), SMTC carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 51.6%, and ROIC of 2.4%. By comparison, NXT (Nextpower Inc.) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 20.7x, ROIC 29.1%, cap $12.04B) and SWKS (Skyworks Solutions Inc.) posts a B+ grade (79/100 RQD, P/E 27.9x, ROIC 7.8%, cap $13.02B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NXT leads on earnings multiple (20.7x) while NXT leads on capital efficiency (29.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SMTC?
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Per SMTC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-25, CIK 0000088941), Semtech Corporation generated $1.05B in revenue (+15.5% YoY), -$40.4M in net income, and $171.4M in free cash flow against $1.41B in total assets and $491.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $121.28 (-0.90%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 16.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510057
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C
Cash (14)Whales (8)SEC (16)Macro (9)CEO (10)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.4% Base Target
$212 Bull$122 Base$95 Bear
📬 FREE SMTC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SMTC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SMTC SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 12.36 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 16.3% FCF Margin ($171.4M FCF) & 51.6% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
65
Grade C+$160.26-11.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
62
Grade C+$141.63+3.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
60
Grade C$146.97-16.7% Next Q
Current
57
Grade D+$122.38-0.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C+ (65) → D+ (57)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SMTC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, SMTC faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($157.89) or 200D SMA ($125.89) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($121.83) toward Bear Floor ($95.03).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SMTC• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SMTC Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your SMTC Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $122.38: 81.7 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $95.03
$7,765
$-2,235 (-22.3%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $121.83
$9,955
$-45 (-0.4%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $212.09
$17,330
+$7,330 (+73.3%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$12774%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$19969%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$10858%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SMTC)

  • ✓Walkthrough of SMTC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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SMTC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +14.27%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-03O $140.9H $140.9L $122.4C $122.4VOL 3.21M
RES: $209.6SUP: $123.3SMA50: $157.9SMA200: $125.9
$211.0$173.7$136.4$99.15$61.87RES $209.6SUP $123.3$122.42026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SMTC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SMTC Butterfly Map → + Track SMTC →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
15.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +15.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SMTC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SMTC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SMTC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SMTC)

Technology Rank #253 of 715 ⚔️ NXT vs SMTC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (SMTC vs. NXT, SWKS, LSCC, SITM)

Industry: Semiconductors (95 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Semtech Corporation (SMTC) ranks #253 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #138 by equity capitalization ($11.89B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NXT leads on earnings valuation at 20.7x trailing P/E, while NXT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 29.1% ROIC and 32.6% gross margin. SWKS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 79/100 (B+) compared with SMTC at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SMTC ACTIVE
Semtech Corporation
D+ 57/100 — 51.6% 2.4% -3.92% $11.89B Benchmark Subject
NXT
Nextpower Inc.
C+ 66/100 20.7x 32.6% 29.1% +14.88% $12.04B /nxt-vs-smtc →
SWKS
Skyworks Solutions Inc.
B+ 79/100 27.9x 41.2% 7.8% -2.75% $13.02B /swks-vs-smtc →
LSCC
Lattice Semiconductor Corporation
D+ 52/100 — 68.2% 0.8% +2.66% $13.20B /lscc-vs-smtc →
SITM
SiTime Corporation
D 49/100 — 53.6% -4.5% -6.52% $13.44B /sitm-vs-smtc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-25 • CIK 0000088941 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-25), Semtech Corporation (SMTC) reported GAAP revenue of $1.05B (+15.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $909.3M , and +20.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$40.4M, operating cash flow of $181.2M, and free cash flow of $171.4M (+241.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, SMTC closed FY2025 with $1.41B in total assets against $491.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 12.36, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-01-25 $1.05B -$40.4M $181.2M $171.4M $1.41B $491.2M
FY2024 (FY) 2025-01-26 $909.3M -$161.9M $58.0M $50.1M $1.42B $505.9M
FY2023 (FY) 2024-01-28 $868.8M -$1.09B -$93.9M -$133.0M $7.23B $1.69B

3. SMTC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SMTC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Semtech Corporation (NASDAQ: SMTC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $122.38 (-3.92% 1D, market cap $11.89B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, SMTC ranks #253 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SMTC compare to NXT and SWKS in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Semiconductors), SMTC carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 51.6%, and ROIC of 2.4%. By comparison, NXT (Nextpower Inc.) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 20.7x, ROIC 29.1%, cap $12.04B) and SWKS (Skyworks Solutions Inc.) posts a B+ grade (79/100 RQD, P/E 27.9x, ROIC 7.8%, cap $13.02B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NXT leads on earnings multiple (20.7x) while NXT leads on capital efficiency (29.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SMTC?

Per SMTC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-25, CIK 0000088941), Semtech Corporation generated $1.05B in revenue (+15.5% YoY), -$40.4M in net income, and $171.4M in free cash flow against $1.41B in total assets and $491.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SMTC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SMTC last traded at $122.38 (-3.92% on volume of 2,656,763 shares), positioning the stock -22.49% below its 50-day simple moving average ($157.89) and -2.79% below its 200-day simple moving average ($125.89). Across its 52-week range of $60.28 to $201.99, SMTC sits at the 43.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($107.08 to $137.68).

Direct Sub-Reports: SMTC RQD Cockpit SMTC 12M Forecast SMTC Earnings & Move SMTC Dividends & DRIP SMTC Insiders & 13F SMTC Whale Options SMTC Profit Sankey SMTC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 57/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SMTC — Semtech Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-01-25

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Semtech Corporation (SMTC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 57/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $122.38 (-3.92% 1D, market capitalization $11.89B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 2.4%, gross margin of 51.6%, operating margin of 3.1%, and free cash flow yield of 1.30%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (10/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 1.25x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 12.36, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.89x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Semtech Corporation (SMTC) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Technology sector, operating in the Semiconductors industry. Per the market data, the company reports a gross margin of 51.6%, which indicates the nature of its product economics, though the underlying business model is not further described in the source data.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-01-25), Semtech Corporation (SMTC) reported $1.05B in annual revenue (up from $909.3M in FY2024, +15.5% YoY) and -$40.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($868.8M revenue, -$1.09B net income) through FY2025, SMTC scaled operating cash flow to $181.2M and free cash flow to $171.4M, backed by $1.41B in total assets against $491.2M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 57/100): Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Free cash flow yield of 1.30% and institutional whale pillar of 8/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $60.28 – $201.99 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation and 95.0x EV/EBITDA against 3.1% operating margins and a 1.25x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Semiconductors (Technology), SMTC carries a macro regime beta of 1.25 and gross margin of 51.6%.

  • Key Question #1: Can SMTC sustain or expand its 3.1% operating margin and 2.4% ROIC against Semiconductors peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.05B and free cash flow of $171.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $491.2M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is SMTC's 22.0x forward P/E multiple to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.25x)?

SMTC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Semtech Corporation (SMTC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SMTC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SMTC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $122.38?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SMTC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SMTC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $154.13 (+21.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Debt has fallen from $1.69B to $491.2M while the forensic balance sheet earns 16 of 20 points, with an Altman Z of 12.36.

Debt has fallen from $1.69B to $491.2M while the forensic balance sheet earns 16 of 20 points, with an Altman Z of 12.36.. When you look under the hood at SMTC, Fundamental Cash Engine is 14/20 with 51.6% gross margins and 2.4% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (8/20) has been quietly accumulating below $201.99. My 12M target is $154.13.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@SkepticalCFA Shorting a 8/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $127.38 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Technology.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $96.81 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $127.38

Net income remained negative at -$40.4M in FY 2025 and the stock trades at a forward P/E of 22 and EV/EBITDA of 95 against ROIC of 2.4%

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on SMTC: Net income remained negative at -$40.4M in FY 2025 and the stock trades at a forward P/E of 22 and EV/EBITDA of 95 against ROIC of 2.4%.. At 22.0x forward P/E, even a small guidance miss in Semiconductors triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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