Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$30.44 -7.62% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.96

Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 60/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- β€’ HOLD / WATCH Cap $21.65B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SMCI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Super Micro Computer Inc. (NASDAQ: SMCI) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $30.44 (-7.62% 1D, market cap $21.65B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 9/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, SMCI ranks #209 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SMCI compare to HPQ and IBM in the Technology sector?
β–Ό

Within the Technology sector (Computer Manufacturing), SMCI carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 21.6x, gross margin of 11.1%, and ROIC of 8.4%. By comparison, HPQ (HP Inc.) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 11.3x, ROIC 51.0%, cap $25.95B) and IBM (International Business Machines Corporation) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 23.0x, ROIC 13.8%, cap $243.66B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HPQ leads on earnings multiple (11.3x) while HPQ leads on capital efficiency (51.0% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SMCI?
β–Ό

Per SMCI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001375365), Super Micro Computer Inc. generated $21.97B in revenue (+46.6% YoY), $1.05B in net income, and $1.53B in free cash flow against $28.00B in total assets and $9.45B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.97 (-1.56%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) β€’ 7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 53.5% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH β€’ C-
025507510060
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C Β· Rk D+
Cash (14)Whales (9)SEC (9)Macro (13)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.9% Base Target
$56 Bull$31 Base$24 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE SMCI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SMCI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±11.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (60/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY SMCI SCORES 60/100 (C-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 7% FCF Margin ($1.53B FCF) & 11.1% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 11 pts from forensic ceiling

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
68
Grade B-$35.78-0.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
65
Grade C+$35.57+0.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
63
Grade C+$35.81-15% Next Q
Current
60
Grade C-$30.44+0.4% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: B- (68) β†’ C- (60)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SMCI Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 60/100 (C-) score, SMCI faces multiple-compression risk if 21.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($38.05) or 200D SMA ($32.71) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($30.71) toward Bear Floor ($23.95).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SMCIβ€’ $4.8M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œSMCI Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
1.8% Total Yield
0% Cash ($0.00/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
74/100 β€’ REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
0% (100% Reinvested)
Retains cash flow for R&D and share repurchases
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (16.3% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years β†’ $45,269

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $815/yr
$11.6K
Yr 1
$13.5K
Yr 2
$15.7K
Yr 3
$18.3K
Yr 4
$21.3K
Yr 5
$24.7K
Yr 6
$28.8K
Yr 7
$33.5K
Yr 8
$38.9K
Yr 9
$45.3K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Cash-Flow & Quality Compounder Desk

Cash-Fortress Compounders: Auditing Free Cash Flow & Yield Safety in SMCI & A-Rated Leaders

  • βœ“12-month Bull/Base/Bear fair-value walkthrough on SMCI and its top sector peer
  • βœ“Top Roarable A-Rated cash compounders with verified executive & 13F accumulation
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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SMCI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +9.03%πŸ“ HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $34.43H $34.43L $30.44C $30.44VOL 38.35M
RES: $47.59SUP: $11.66SMA50: $38.05SMA200: $32.71
$53.36$45.24$37.11$28.98$20.86RES $47.59SUP $11.66$30.442026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SMCI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
15.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +46.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
DEVELOPING Β· 200D Mean-Reversion & Governance Audit Watch

Trigger: $36.67 β€’ Invalidation: $31.33

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’
NVDA β†’ SMCI Confirmed Filing
Super Micro integrates NVIDIA HGX and Blackwell GPUs into rack-scale Direct Liquid Cooling (DLC) servers, driving rapid top-line revenue expansion but intense working-capital and margin sensitivity.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video πŸ’‘ Share-Count Creep & Refinancing Watch: Separating Real Free Cash Flow from SBC Dilution (gideon-ashmere) πŸ’‘ Starter Kit: Forensic Dilution & Refinancing Stress Watch (gideon-ashmere)
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SMCI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SMCI)

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (SMCI vs. HPQ, IBM, DELL, OMCL)

Industry: Computer Manufacturing (9 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) ranks #209 by composite RQD confidence (60/100, grade C-) and #102 by equity capitalization ($21.65B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HPQ leads on earnings valuation at 11.3x trailing P/E, while HPQ leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 51.0% ROIC and 20.6% gross margin. IBM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with SMCI at 60/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SMCI ACTIVE
Super Micro Computer Inc.
C- 60/100 21.6x 11.1% 8.4% -7.62% $21.65B Benchmark Subject
HPQ
HP Inc.
C 65/100 11.3x 20.6% 51.0% -1.22% $25.95B /hpq-vs-smci β†’
IBM
International Business Machines Corporation
B 73/100 23.0x 58.2% 13.8% -2.06% $243.66B /ibm-vs-smci β†’
DELL
Dell Technologies Inc. (Class C)
C+ 69/100 50.9x 20.0% 26.6% -7.43% $269.78B /dell-vs-smci β†’
OMCL
Omnicell Inc. ($0.001 par value)
D+ 53/100 β€” 42.5% 0.4% -0.65% $1.67B /omcl-vs-smci β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-06-30 β€’ CIK 0001375365

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) reported GAAP revenue of $21.97B (+46.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $14.99B , and +208.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.05B, operating cash flow of $1.66B, and free cash flow of $1.53B (+158.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, SMCI closed FY2025 with $28.00B in total assets against $9.45B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.24, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-06-30 $21.97B $1.05B $1.66B $1.53B $28.00B $9.45B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-06-30 $14.99B $1.15B -$2.49B -$2.61B $9.73B $1.57B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-06-30 $7.12B $640.0M $663.6M $343.0M $12.44B $2.91B

3. SMCI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SMCI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Super Micro Computer Inc. (NASDAQ: SMCI) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $30.44 (-7.62% 1D, market cap $21.65B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 9/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, SMCI ranks #209 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SMCI compare to HPQ and IBM in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Manufacturing), SMCI carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 21.6x, gross margin of 11.1%, and ROIC of 8.4%. By comparison, HPQ (HP Inc.) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 11.3x, ROIC 51.0%, cap $25.95B) and IBM (International Business Machines Corporation) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 23.0x, ROIC 13.8%, cap $243.66B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HPQ leads on earnings multiple (11.3x) while HPQ leads on capital efficiency (51.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SMCI?

Per SMCI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001375365), Super Micro Computer Inc. generated $21.97B in revenue (+46.6% YoY), $1.05B in net income, and $1.53B in free cash flow against $28.00B in total assets and $9.45B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SMCI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SMCI last traded at $30.44 (-7.62% on volume of 41,257,165 shares), positioning the stock -20.00% below its 50-day simple moving average ($38.05) and -6.94% below its 200-day simple moving average ($32.71). Across its 52-week range of $19.48 to $53.01, SMCI sits at the 32.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±11.8% ($26.85 to $34.03).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 60/100 (C-) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

SMCI β€” Super Micro Computer Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:08:08Z

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

SMCI scores 60 out of 100, a C- grade, labeled "Roarable Hold β€” Cautious Neutral." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20 (ROIC 8.4%; FCF yield 6.77%); Whale 13F Flow 9/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction 15/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit 13/20 (Beta 1.42; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet 9/20 (Altman Z 2.24; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 1.26). The highest-scoring pillar is insider conviction, while the weakest are the whale flow and balance-sheet pillars, each at 9/20. For a prospective investor, the rating suggests a mixed picture: cash-generation metrics are moderate, institutional positioning is not a strong tailwind, and leverage and forensic indicators warrant caution. The beta of 1.42 implies above-market sensitivity to broad moves, and the rating's "Cautious Neutral" framing reflects balanced rather than decisive evidence. Valuation tradeoffs are visible in the market data: the stock trades at a P/E of 21.6 (TTM) and 18.1 (forward), against an EV/EBITDA of 20.1, while the 52-week range of $19.48–$53.01 shows wide price dispersion. Upside drivers would need to come from margin improvement and debt reduction; downside risks include the leverage and governance-related concerns noted in the supply-chain section.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Super Micro Computer Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Technology sector, Computer Manufacturing industry. The company integrates NVIDIA HGX and Blackwell GPUs into rack-scale Direct Liquid Cooling servers. Per the same source, it is a confirmed customer relationship with NVIDIA. Revenue model details beyond the supply-chain mechanism summary are β€”

Per the market data, gross margin is 11.1%, operating margin 5.7%, and net margin 4.8%, with ROIC at 8.4%. The Altman Z-Score is 2.24, the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, and Debt/Equity is 1.26. Debt rose from $1.57B in FY 2024 to $9.45B in FY 2025 while FY 2025 cash was $4.09B. FCF swung from -$2.61B in FY 2024 to $1.53B in FY 2025.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case: The company's FY 2025 revenue reached $21.97B with FCF of $1.53B, and the RQD rating credits its cash engine at 14/20 with a 6.77% FCF yield. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 (ROIC 8.4%, FCF yield 6.77%) and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $19.48 – $53.01 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case: Total debt rose to $9.45B in FY 2025 against $4.09B cash, with a Debt/Equity of 1.26 and a forensic balance-sheet score of only 9/20. Investors must weigh 21.6x trailing P/E and 20.1x EV/EBITDA against 5.7% operating margins and a 1.42 macro beta if sector demand softens.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The NVDA→SMCI link is classified as a confirmed customer relationship with a MIXED_CONSTRAINT direction effect, supported by a confirmed filing. The stated exposure is material supplier concentration, with more than 60% purchase concentration in the top GPU vendor tier per the company's 10-K. The mechanism is that GPU allocation pass-through leaves thin assembly margins while rival OEMs bid on hyperscale tenders. A competing explanation in the graph is that governance or audit overhang, or NVIDIA steering reference allocations to rival OEMs, could decouple SMCI unit growth from NVIDIA data-center growth. Watch items for an investor: the sensitivity of margins to GPU allocation, the mix of Blackwell DLC shipments, and the working-capital intensity implied by the swing in FCF between FY 2024 and FY 2025. Sector correlation data beyond the single link: —

  • Key Question #1: What drove the swing in debt from $1.57B (FY 2024) to $9.45B (FY 2025), and what is the maturity profile?
  • Key Question #2: What are the article contents behind the news headlines, and do they contain any quantified claims?
  • Key Question #3: What governance or audit developments underlie the "governance/audit overhang" risk referenced in the supply-chain graph?

SMCI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to SMCI Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SMCI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $30.44?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SMCI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SMCI:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC Cross-Asset Macro Desk πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $37.89 (+15.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

The company's FY 2025 revenue reached $21.97B with FCF of $1.53B, and the RQD rating credits its cash engine at 14/20 with a 6.77%

The company's FY 2025 revenue reached $21.97B with FCF of $1.53B, and the RQD rating credits its cash engine at 14/20 with a 6.77% FCF yield.. When you look under the hood at SMCI, Fundamental Cash Engine is 14/20 with 11.1% gross margins and 8.4% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (9/20) has been quietly accumulating below $51.40. My 12M target is $37.89.

VolSurface_Trader πŸ‚ BULL

Both sides have a point here β€” SMCI's 9/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RE RedlineAuditor Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $26.69 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $32.95

Total debt rose to $9.45B in FY 2025 against $4.09B cash, with a Debt/Equity of 1.26 and a forensic balance-sheet score of only 9/2

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on SMCI: Total debt rose to $9.45B in FY 2025 against $4.09B cash, with a Debt/Equity of 1.26 and a forensic balance-sheet score of only 9/20.. At 21.6x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Computer Manufacturing triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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