What is SHAK's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for SHAK.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / SHAK / options

CHA (76) WING (66) CAKE (71) JMKE (47) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$72.46 +2.81% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $72.69

Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.02B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SHAK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Shake Shack Inc. (NYSE: SHAK) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $72.46 (+2.81% 1D, market cap $3.02B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SHAK ranks #586 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SHAK compare to CHA and WING in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), SHAK carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 60.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.8%. By comparison, CHA (Chagee Holdings Limited) holds a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 13.7x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $2.30B) and WING (Wingstop Inc.) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 22.6x, ROIC 45.0%, cap $4.05B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CHA leads on earnings multiple (13.7x) while CHA leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SHAK?

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Per SHAK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001620533), Shake Shack Inc. generated $1.45B in revenue (+15.4% YoY), $49.7M in net income, and $56.5M in free cash flow against $1.90B in total assets and $604.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $72.69 (+0.32%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 3.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SHAK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SHAK SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.9% FCF Margin ($56.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±8.8% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (60.1) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$68.77-1.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$67.84-0.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$67.22+7.8% Next Q

Current

Grade D$72.46-5.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (40) → D (48)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SHAK Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While SHAK currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($65.00) and Max Pain ($76.08) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $112.83.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SHAK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SHAK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±8.8%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (SHAK)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for SHAK.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SHAK)

✓Walkthrough of SHAK's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

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SHAK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -24.18%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-11-03O $70.51H $72.46L $70.48C $72.46VOL 955.1K

RES: $71.92SUP: $56.18SMA50: $65.00SMA200: $74.61

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SHAK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SHAK Butterfly Map → + Track SHAK →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

41.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +15.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SHAK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SHAK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SHAK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SHAK)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #586 of 1009 ⚔️ CHA vs SHAK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (SHAK vs. CHA, WING, CAKE, JMKE)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) ranks #586 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #356 by equity capitalization ($3.02B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CHA leads on earnings valuation at 13.7x trailing P/E, while CHA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. CHA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 76/100 (B+) compared with SHAK at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SHAK ACTIVE Shake Shack Inc.	D	48/100	60.7x	—	6.8%	+2.81%	$3.02B	Benchmark Subject
CHA Chagee Holdings Limited	B+	76/100	13.7x	—	85.0%	+5.06%	$2.30B	/cha-vs-shak →
WING Wingstop Inc.	C+	66/100	22.6x	—	45.0%	+8.89%	$4.05B	/wing-vs-shak →
CAKE Cheesecake Factory Incorporated	B-	71/100	38.0x	—	18.9%	+0.28%	$5.61B	/cake-vs-shak →
JMKE Jersey Mike's Subs Inc.	D	47/100	32.8x	—	2.4%	+2.84%	$5.81B	/jmke-vs-shak →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001620533 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) reported GAAP revenue of $1.45B (+15.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.25B , and +32.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $49.7M, operating cash flow of $222.4M, and free cash flow of $56.5M (+58.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, SHAK closed FY2025 with $1.90B in total assets against $604.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.39, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.45B	$49.7M	$222.4M	$56.5M	$1.90B	$604.1M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-25	$1.25B	$10.8M	$171.2M	$35.7M	$1.70B	$541.5M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-27	$1.09B	$21.0M	$132.1M	$83.2M	$1.66B	$388.4M

3. SHAK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SHAK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does SHAK compare to CHA and WING in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SHAK?

Where is SHAK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SHAK last traded at $72.46 (+2.81% on volume of 1,796,503 shares), positioning the stock +11.48% above its 50-day simple moving average ($65.00) and -2.88% below its 200-day simple moving average ($74.61). Across its 52-week range of $51.60 to $107.46, SHAK sits at the 37.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 60.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.8% ($66.08 to $78.84).

Direct Sub-Reports: SHAK RQD Cockpit SHAK 12M Forecast SHAK Earnings & Move SHAK Dividends & DRIP SHAK Insiders & 13F SHAK Whale Options SHAK Profit Sankey SHAK News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 48/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SHAK — Shake Shack Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 48/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $72.46 (+2.81% 1D, market capitalization $3.02B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 6.8%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 4.3%, and free cash flow yield of 1.87%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (11/20) + Insider Conviction (11/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (4/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 0.87x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.39, Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.07x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) is listed on the NYSE and classified under the Consumer Discretionary sector and Restaurants industry. Per the market profile, the company carries a market capitalization of $3.0B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) reported $1.45B in annual revenue (up from $1.25B in FY2024, +15.4% YoY) and $49.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.09B revenue, $21.0M net income) through FY2025, SHAK scaled operating cash flow to $222.4M and free cash flow to $56.5M, backed by $1.90B in total assets against $604.1M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 48/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 1.87% and institutional whale pillar of 11/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 11/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $51.60 – $107.46 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 60.7x trailing P/E and 15.8x EV/EBITDA against 4.3% operating margins and a 0.87x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are — Investors should note that the Brazil expansion headlines imply international unit-rollout execution as a watch item, but no supply-chain linkage is documented in the source.

Key Question #1: Can SHAK sustain or expand its 4.3% operating margin and 6.8% ROIC against Restaurants peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.45B and free cash flow of $56.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $604.1M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is SHAK's 51.0x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.87x)?

SHAK Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SHAK Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 23h ago

Why Shake Shack (SHAK) Is Up 9.4% After Announcing 40-Unit Brazil Expansion Plan

Yahoo Finance report covering Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Shake Shack: Brazilian Trial By Fire (NYSE:SHAK)

Seeking Alpha report covering Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Investing.com • 1d ago

Guggenheim cuts Shake Shack stock price target on lower EBITDA outlook

Investing.com report covering Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE GuruFocus • 1d ago

Shake Shack Inc (SHAK) Stock Up 3.5% and Still Undervalued -- GF Score: 80/100

GuruFocus report covering Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Wall Street Analysts Predict a 32.34% Upside in Shake Shack (SHAK): Here's What You Should Know

Yahoo Finance report covering Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Does Revenue Growth Outlook Change The Bull Case For Shake Shack Stock (SHAK)?

Simply Wall St report covering Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Wells Fargo & Company Issues Positive Forecast for Shake Shack (NYSE:SHAK) Stock Price

MarketBeat report covering Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE GuruFocus • 1d ago

Shake Shack Inc (SHAK) Stock Down 4.0% -- Now Undervalued? GF Sc

GuruFocus report covering Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SHAK Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $72.46?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SHAK 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $85.99 (+22.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and FY 2025 operating income of $62.5M, up from $3.0M in FY 2024, signal improving operating strength.

Picked up a starter position in SHAK in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $70.48. Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and FY 2025 operating income of $62.5M, up from $3.0M in FY 2024, signal improving operating strength.. Trading inside a $51.60–$107.46 52-week range with 1.87% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Restaurants multiples expand this quarter.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Shorting a 11/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $70.48 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $56.38 (-20.0%)

Spot @ $70.48

The RQD rating scores macro regime fit at only 4/20 and a P/E (TTM) of 60.7 leaves little margin for an EBITDA outlook cut.

Careful chasing SHAK at $70.48. The RQD rating scores macro regime fit at only 4/20 and a P/E (TTM) of 60.7 leaves little margin for an EBITDA outlook cut.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 4.3%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $56.38 on multiple compression.