Stock Ratings / Health Care / SGMT / financials

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Sagimet Biosciences Inc. (Series A) (SGMT) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$9.92 -4.89% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.81

Sagimet Biosciences Inc. (Series A) (SGMT) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $735.7M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SGMT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Sagimet Biosciences Inc. (Series A) (NASDAQ: SGMT) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $9.92 (-4.89% 1D, market cap $735.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, SGMT ranks #405 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SGMT compare to APMD and WVE in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), SGMT carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, APMD (Apnimed Inc.) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $721.9M) and WVE (Wave Life Sciences Inc.) posts a E grade (22/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $715.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GYRE leads on earnings multiple (72.3x) while GYRE leads on capital efficiency (25.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SGMT?

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Per SGMT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001400118), Sagimet Biosciences Inc. (Series A) generated $0 in revenue, -$51.0M in net income, and -$45.6M in free cash flow against $116.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.81 (-1.07%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SGMT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SGMT SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (33% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$8.80+0.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$8.86+7.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$9.56+3.8% Next Q

Current

Grade D$9.92-6.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (37) → D (45)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SGMT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While SGMT currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($9.94) and Max Pain ($10.42) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $12.02.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SGMT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SGMT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How SGMT Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $2.0M

FY24

Rev $4.00B

FY25

Rev $4.00B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$4.00B	52%	-1.4%	-$51.0M	-$45.6M	-45%
FY 2024	$4.00B	52%	-1.4%	-$45.6M	-$42.4M	-45%
FY 2023	$2.0M	52%	-80%	-$27.9M	-$23.8M	-35%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SGMT)

✓Walkthrough of SGMT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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SGMT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +25.57%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $10.74H $10.74L $9.92C $9.92VOL 746.5K

RES: $13.29SUP: $7.77SMA50: $9.94SMA200: $7.52

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SGMT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SGMT Butterfly Map → + Track SGMT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SGMT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SGMT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SGMT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SGMT)

Health Care Rank #405 of 1016 ⚔️ APMD vs SGMT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (SGMT vs. APMD, WVE, GYRE, ANNX)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Sagimet Biosciences Inc. (Series A) (SGMT) ranks #405 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #395 by equity capitalization ($735.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GYRE leads on earnings valuation at 72.3x trailing P/E, while GYRE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 25.4% ROIC and 95.4% gross margin. GYRE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 47/100 (D) compared with SGMT at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SGMT ACTIVE Sagimet Biosciences Inc. (Series A)	D	45/100	—	—	-35.0%	-4.89%	$735.7M	Benchmark Subject
APMD Apnimed Inc.	D	44/100	—	—	—	-5.42%	$721.9M	/apmd-vs-sgmt →
WVE Wave Life Sciences Inc.	E	22/100	—	—	-35.0%	-1.10%	$715.9M	/wve-vs-sgmt →
GYRE Gyre Therapeutics Inc.	D	47/100	72.3x	95.4%	25.4%	-28.94%	$714.8M	/gyre-vs-sgmt →
ANNX Annexon Inc.	E	30/100	—	—	-35.0%	+1.00%	$760.2M	/annx-vs-sgmt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001400118

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Sagimet Biosciences Inc. (Series A) (SGMT) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 , and -100.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$51.0M, operating cash flow of -$45.6M, and free cash flow of -$45.6M (-7.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, SGMT closed FY2025 with $116.5M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$51.0M	-$45.6M	-$45.6M	$116.5M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$45.6M	-$42.4M	-$42.4M	$160.3M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$2.0M	-$27.9M	-$23.8M	-$23.8M	—	—

3. SGMT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SGMT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does SGMT compare to APMD and WVE in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SGMT?

Where is SGMT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SGMT last traded at $9.92 (-4.89% on volume of 989,160 shares), positioning the stock -0.20% below its 50-day simple moving average ($9.94) and +31.91% above its 200-day simple moving average ($7.52). Across its 52-week range of $4.50 to $11.45, SGMT sits at the 78.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($8.68 to $11.16).

SGMT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Sagimet Biosciences Inc. (Series A) (SGMT)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), SGMT converted $4.0B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: SGMT RQD Cockpit SGMT 12M Forecast SGMT Earnings & Move SGMT Dividends & DRIP SGMT Insiders & 13F SGMT Whale Options SGMT Profit Sankey SGMT News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 45/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

SGMT — Sagimet Biosciences Inc. (Series A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:33:25Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, SGMT scores 45 out of 100, earning a "D" grade and the verdict "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are:

Fundamental Cash Engine: 7 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of -35% and an FCF yield of -6.21%. For a prospective investor, the core issue is that the business is consuming cash rather than generating it, so there is no earnings or cash-flow floor under the valuation.
Whale 13F Flow: 15 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar captures institutional accumulation and options positioning. This is the strongest pillar relative to its weight, suggesting some institutional interest, though the holder detail itself is not available in source data.
Insider Conviction: 3 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The low score indicates weak insider-conviction signals, which an investor may weigh as a caution flag.
Macro Regime Fit: 10 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 1.0 with sector sensitivity. The stock is assessed as moving roughly in line with the market, offering neither defensive cushioning nor amplified upside beta.
Forensic Balance Sheet: 10 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5, the Piotroski F-Score is 2/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. The weak Piotroski reading points to deteriorating fundamentals, while the Altman figure and modest leverage provide some balance-sheet cushion.

Taken together, the rating signals that the stock's valuation is not supported by current cash generation. Upside would depend on factors outside the reported cash engine, while the distribution warning and weak insider signals argue for caution. The valuation tradeoff is that a $735.7M market capitalization rests on pre-revenue losses, making the investment case highly sensitive to future cash burn and funding conditions.

Business

Per the SEC financials and profile, Sagimet Biosciences Inc. (Series A) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. Reported revenue is $0.0M for FY 2025 and FY 2024, with $2.0M reported for FY 2023. Per the profile, the company has a market capitalization of $0.7B. Source data does not describe its specific products, customers, or monetization model.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$0.0M	$-56.9M	$-51.0M	N/A	$-45.6M	$35.0M	N/A
FY 2024	$0.0M	$-54.5M	$-45.6M	N/A	$-42.4M	$75.8M	N/A
FY 2023	$2.0M	$-30.7M	$-27.9M	N/A	$-23.8M	N/A	N/A

Per the SEC financials, the company reported operating losses in every period shown, with net losses of $-51.0M in FY 2025 and $-45.6M in FY 2024. Per the market data, gross, operating, and net margins are each 0%, and ROIC is -35%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 2/9. Cash declined from $75.8M to $35.0M between FY 2024 and FY 2025, and debt is not available in source data for any period.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are therefore not available in source data.

Open Questions

What are the company's products, clinical programs, or revenue sources, given that the source data does not describe its business model?
What drove the decline in cash from $75.8M to $35.0M, and what is the current runway at the FY 2025 burn rate?
What is the outstanding debt position, since the debt field is not available for any reported period?
What is the share count, given that EPS is N/A in all periods, and how dilutive are the Series A instruments referenced in the company name?
What specific institutional holders and insider transactions underlie the 13F and Form 4 pillar scores?

SGMT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Sagimet Biosciences Inc. (Series A) (SGMT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SGMT Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 4d ago

Sagimet Biosciences Announces Participation in Upcoming Investor Conference and Inducement Grant Under Nasdaq Listing Rule 5635(c)(4)

FOSTER CITY, Calif., Oct. 29, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Sagimet Biosciences Inc. (Nasdaq: SGMT), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing inhibitors of fatty acid synthase (FASN), a key lipid synthesis regula

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 10d ago

Wall Street Analysts Think Sagimet Biosciences Inc. (SGMT) Could Surge 168.24%: Read This Before Placing a Bet

The consensus price target hints at a 168.2% upside potential for Sagimet Biosciences Inc. (SGMT). While empirical research shows that this sought-after metric is hardly effective, an upward trend in earnings estimate re

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 10d ago

Ascletis' Strategic Partner Sagimet Announces First Patient Dosed in Phase III U.S. Clinical Trial of Denifanstat (ASC40) for Moderate to Severe Acne

Ascletis Pharma Inc. (HKEX: 1672, "Ascletis") announced that its strategic partner, Sagimet Biosciences Inc. ("Sagimet"), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing inhibitors of fatty acid synthase (FASN), a

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 11d ago

Sagimet Biosciences Announces First Patient Dosed in AURORA Phase 3 U.S. Clinical Trial of Denifanstat for Moderate to Severe Acne

With first patient dosed in AURORA Phase 3 clinical trial, Sagimet advances denifanstat's U.S. registrational program, building on positive Phase 3 clinical results in China from license partner AscletisPivotal trial des

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 11d ago

Sagimet Biosciences Doses First Patient In AURORA, Pivotal U.S. Phase 3 Clinical Trial Of Denifanstat In Adults With Moderate To Severe Acne

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE SeekingAlpha • 12d ago

Sagimet Biosciences: The U.S. Acne Trial Is A Replication Exercise, Not A Discovery Bet

SGMT pivots denifanstat to acne with Phase 3 data and a funded U.S. registrational trial.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 18d ago

After Plunging 27.9% in 4 Weeks, Here's Why the Trend Might Reverse for Sagimet Biosciences Inc. (SGMT)

Sagimet Biosciences Inc. (SGMT) has become technically an oversold stock now, which implies exhaustion of the heavy selling pressure on it. This, combined with strong agreement among Wall Street analysts in revising earn

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SGMT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $9.92?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SGMT 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $9.18 (-12.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is SGMT (D • RQD 45/100) a Buy at $10.43?

Welcome to the SGMT (Sagimet Biosciences Inc. (Series A)) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 45/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.03 (-23.0%)

Spot @ $10.43

Pump the brakes on SGMT — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on SGMT, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Sagimet Biosciences Inc. (Series A) expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

CA CashFlowKing Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $12.10 (+16.0%)

Spot @ $10.43

SGMT cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on SGMT, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $10.43 (52-wk range $4.50 - $11.45), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.