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Stock Ratings / Materials / RIO / earnings
FCX (65) SCCO (69) VALE (52) HBM (53) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±4.2% Move

$81.89 -1.63% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $81.49

Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $104.57B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on RIO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RIO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-02, Rio Tinto Plc (NYSE: RIO) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $81.89 (-1.63% 1D, market cap $104.57B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, RIO ranks #75 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RIO compare to FCX and SCCO in the Materials sector?
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Within the Materials sector (Metal Mining), RIO carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, FCX (Freeport-McMoRan Inc.) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 43.1x, ROIC 21.5%, cap $94.98B) and SCCO (Southern Copper Corporation) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 37.3x, ROIC 41.0%, cap $161.89B). Among the 5-stock peer group, RIO leads on earnings multiple (32.8x) while SCCO leads on capital efficiency (41.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RIO?
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For Rio Tinto Plc (RIO), key quantitative strengths include Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. and sector rank #75 in Materials, while primary risk factors center on Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $81.50 (-0.48%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 15.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510053
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+
Cash (11)Whales (7)SEC (16)Macro (7)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.2% Base Target
$118 Bull$80 Base$62 Bear
📬 FREE RIO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RIO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY RIO SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.74 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+12/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 60% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (31.2) create a -13 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
61
Grade C$93.06-5.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
58
Grade C$88.16-2.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
56
Grade C$85.74-4.5% Next Q
Current
53
Grade D+$81.89-0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (61) → D+ (53)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a RIO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While RIO currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($94.51) and Max Pain ($85.98) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $118.21.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RIO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “RIO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 53%NO 47%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Upcoming Quarter (~28 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±4.2% Swing Band

±$3.44 Expected Swing
$78.45 (-4.2%)Spot $81.89$85.33 (+4.2%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

RIO Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 53/100

Trailing EPS: $2.53 • YoY Revenue Growth: 1.1%

Model Bullish Setup (53/100)Model Risk Weight (47/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RIO)

  • ✓Walkthrough of RIO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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RIO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -16.97%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $85.93H $85.93L $81.89C $81.89VOL 7.64M
RES: $102.3SUP: $80.41SMA50: $94.51SMA200: $96.38
$115.0$105.1$95.13$85.20$75.28RES $102.3SUP $80.41$81.892026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RIO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RIO Butterfly Map → + Track RIO →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
25.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RIO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RIO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RIO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RIO)

Materials Rank #75 of 270 ⚔️ FCX vs RIO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (RIO vs. FCX, SCCO, VALE, HBM)

Industry: Metal Mining (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) ranks #75 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #4 by equity capitalization ($104.57B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, RIO leads on earnings valuation at 32.8x trailing P/E, while SCCO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 41.0% ROIC and 60.1% gross margin. SCCO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with RIO at 53/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
RIO ACTIVE
Rio Tinto Plc
D+ 53/100 32.8x — 9.9% -1.63% $104.57B Benchmark Subject
FCX
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.
C 65/100 43.1x 26.1% 21.5% -5.55% $94.98B /fcx-vs-rio →
SCCO
Southern Copper Corporation
C+ 69/100 37.3x 60.1% 41.0% -7.42% $161.89B /scco-vs-rio →
VALE
VALE S.A. American
D+ 52/100 32.8x — 9.9% +1.88% $47.73B /vale-vs-rio →
HBM
Hudbay Minerals Inc. (Canada)
D+ 53/100 32.8x — 9.9% -7.11% $10.38B /hbm-vs-rio →

2. RIO Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) operates in Metal Mining (Materials) with an equity capitalization of $104.57B, trailing P/E of 32.8x, forward P/E of 30.5x, and EV/EBITDA of 21.0x. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of 13.9%, net profit margin of 10.9%, ROIC of 9.9%, and free cash flow yield of 2.21%, alongside an Altman Z-Score of 3.74 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9.

3. RIO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RIO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Rio Tinto Plc (NYSE: RIO) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $81.89 (-1.63% 1D, market cap $104.57B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, RIO ranks #75 in composite RQD confidence.

How does RIO compare to FCX and SCCO in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Metal Mining), RIO carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, FCX (Freeport-McMoRan Inc.) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 43.1x, ROIC 21.5%, cap $94.98B) and SCCO (Southern Copper Corporation) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 37.3x, ROIC 41.0%, cap $161.89B). Among the 5-stock peer group, RIO leads on earnings multiple (32.8x) while SCCO leads on capital efficiency (41.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RIO?

For Rio Tinto Plc (RIO), key quantitative strengths include Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. and sector rank #75 in Materials, while primary risk factors center on Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is RIO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RIO last traded at $81.89 (-1.63% on volume of 5,262,131 shares), positioning the stock -13.35% below its 50-day simple moving average ($94.51) and -15.03% below its 200-day simple moving average ($96.38). Across its 52-week range of $67.74 to $112.58, RIO sits at the 31.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 31.2 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.2% ($78.45 to $85.33).

RIO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is RIO's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Rio Tinto Plc (RIO)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Upcoming Quarter.

How much is RIO stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±4.2% event move for RIO, spanning a range between $78.45 and $85.33.

Direct Sub-Reports: RIO RQD Cockpit RIO 12M Forecast RIO Earnings & Move RIO Dividends & DRIP RIO Insiders & 13F RIO Whale Options RIO Profit Sankey RIO News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 53/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

RIO — Rio Tinto Plc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T14:08:13Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, RIO scores 53 out of 100, a D+ grade, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 11 / 20 (ROIC 9.9%; FCF yield 2.21%), Whale 13F Flow at 7 / 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 12 / 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 7 / 20 (Beta 1.02; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 16 / 20 (Altman Z 3.74; Piotroski F 7/9; Debt/Equity 0.39). The two weakest pillars, Whale 13F Flow and Macro Regime Fit, each carry 7 of 20 points. The strongest pillar, Forensic Balance Sheet, is the main support for the score. For a prospective investor, the rating points to a balance sheet that screens as sound while cash generation and institutional or macro signals screen as weak. Per the market data, the trailing P/E of 32.8 and EV/EBITDA of 21 are elevated relative to the 2.21% FCF yield, which suggests the valuation leaves limited margin for error if cash returns or sector conditions soften. The rating is a systematic score derived from the cited inputs and is not a personalized recommendation.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
83.25$104.57B32.830.5212.530%1.02$67.74 - $112.589.9%

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

The news wire contains six items, all tagged "MARKET WIRE" with a YELLOW light, and all describing RIO market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts in general terms. Headlines reference a stock slide, a price forecast, a "good price to buy and hold for a strong 2027" thesis, and a question of whether to buy shares. These headlines are summarized sources, and the source data does not provide their underlying content, specific catalysts, or dated events. Per the market data, the stock closed or traded at 83.25, down 3.12%, on volume of 7,641,855. The 52-week range is $67.74 to $112.58. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals, so no ripple or signal-based catalyst is identified.

Open Questions

  • What revenue, operating income, net income, cash flow, and debt figures are reported by the company, given that the financials section is empty?
  • What is the analyst consensus rating and price target distribution, given that the analyst data section is empty?
  • Who are the institutional holders and insiders, and what are their recent 13F, Form 4, or Congressional trades, given that the holders section is empty?
  • What specific events or catalysts drove the 3.12% decline, and what does the underlying content of the cited news items say?
  • Why is gross margin reported as 0% when operating and net margins are positive?

RIO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to RIO Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

RIO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $81.89?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON RIO 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on RIO:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $89.91 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is RIO (D+ • RQD 53/100) a Buy at $83.25?

Welcome to the RIO (Rio Tinto Plc) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 53/100 (Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim) in Metal Mining. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (32.8x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $62.44 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $83.25

Pump the brakes on RIO — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on RIO, but look at what you are paying: 32.8x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Rio Tinto Plc expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $106.56 (+28.0%)
Spot @ $83.25

RIO cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on RIO, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Metal Mining and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $83.25 (52-wk range $67.74 - $112.58), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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