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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / REF / earnings
GOOS (47) CRI (59) GIII (61) UA (26) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Reformation Inc. (REF) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$15.82 -2.47% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.72

Reformation Inc. (REF) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $934.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on REF Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is REF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Reformation Inc. (NYSE: REF) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $15.82 (-2.47% 1D, market cap $934.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Active quantitative signal LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND (BULLISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does REF compare to GOOS and CRI in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Apparel), REF carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, GOOS (Canada Goose Holdings Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $785.2M) and CRI (Carter's Inc.) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 13.3x, ROIC 11.3%, cap $1.16B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CRI leads on earnings multiple (13.3x) while CRI leads on capital efficiency (11.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for REF?
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Per REF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-27, CIK 0001787117), Reformation Inc. generated $393.9M in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $937.9M in total assets and $147.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.72 (-0.63%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 6.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510059
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C+
Cash (10)Whales (13)SEC (13)Macro (14)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.4% Base Target
$19 Bull$16 Base$12 Bear
📬 FREE REF RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for REF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY REF SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 73% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 59.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 11 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
51
Grade C-$13.77+5.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
54
Grade C-$14.50+10.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
56
Grade C$16.00-1.1% Next Q
Current
59
Grade C-$15.82+0.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (51) → C- (59)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the REF Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, REF faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($14.09) or 200D SMA ($14.47) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($15.89) toward Bear Floor ($12.39).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $REF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “REF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 26, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 26, 2026 (~52 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$1.98 Expected Swing
$13.84 (-12.5%)Spot $15.82$17.80 (+12.5%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

REF Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 59/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (59/100)Model Risk Weight (41/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-27$393.9M$0$052%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating REF & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on REF
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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REF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +4.91%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $16.22H $16.22L $15.82C $15.82VOL 278.7K
RES: $16.77SUP: $10.87SMA50: $14.09SMA200: $14.47
$17.64$16.07$14.50$12.93$11.36RES $16.77SUP $10.87$15.822026-07-302026-08-212026-09-162026-10-092026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

REF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 REF Butterfly Map → + Track REF →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on REF today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for REF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for REF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (REF)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #351 of 1009 ⚔️ GOOS vs REF Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (REF vs. GOOS, CRI, GIII, UA)

Industry: Apparel (27 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Reformation Inc. (REF) ranks #351 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #513 by equity capitalization ($934.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CRI leads on earnings valuation at 13.3x trailing P/E, while CRI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.3% ROIC and 45.4% gross margin. GIII currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with REF at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
REF ACTIVE
Reformation Inc.
C- 59/100 — — — -2.47% $934.6M Benchmark Subject
GOOS
Canada Goose Holdings Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares
D 47/100 — — — 0.00% $785.2M /goos-vs-ref →
CRI
Carter's Inc.
C- 59/100 13.3x 45.4% 11.3% -5.51% $1.16B /cri-vs-ref →
GIII
G-III Apparel Group LTD.
C- 61/100 — 39.4% 6.3% -0.26% $1.30B /giii-vs-ref →
UA
Under Armour Inc. (Class C)
E 26/100 — 45.5% -9.5% -0.61% $2.08B /ua-vs-ref →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-27 • CIK 0001787117 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-27), Reformation Inc. (REF) reported GAAP revenue of $393.9M , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, REF closed FY2025 with $937.9M in total assets against $147.7M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: N/A).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-27 $393.9M $0 — — $937.9M $147.7M

3. REF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is REF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Reformation Inc. (NYSE: REF) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $15.82 (-2.47% 1D, market cap $934.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Active quantitative signal LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND (BULLISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.

How does REF compare to GOOS and CRI in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Apparel), REF carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, GOOS (Canada Goose Holdings Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $785.2M) and CRI (Carter's Inc.) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 13.3x, ROIC 11.3%, cap $1.16B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CRI leads on earnings multiple (13.3x) while CRI leads on capital efficiency (11.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for REF?

Per REF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-27, CIK 0001787117), Reformation Inc. generated $393.9M in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $937.9M in total assets and $147.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is REF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

REF last traded at $15.82 (-2.47% on volume of 278,665 shares), positioning the stock +12.28% above its 50-day simple moving average ($14.09) and +9.33% above its 200-day simple moving average ($14.47). Across its 52-week range of $11.85 to $17.26, REF sits at the 73.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($13.84 to $17.80).

Direct Sub-Reports: REF RQD Cockpit REF 12M Forecast REF Earnings & Move REF Dividends & DRIP REF Insiders & 13F REF Whale Options REF Profit Sankey REF News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 59/100 (C-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

REF — Reformation Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-27

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Reformation Inc. (REF) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 59/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $15.82 (-2.47% 1D, market capitalization $934.6M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of —, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (14/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of N/A, and Debt/Equity of 0.34x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Reformation Inc. (REF) is a NYSE-listed operating company in the Apparel industry (Consumer Discretionary sector) with an equity market capitalization of $934.6M. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 0%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 0% (free cash flow yield of 0%). Within the Apparel peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-27), Reformation Inc. (REF) reported $393.9M in annual revenue and $0 in GAAP net income. Operating cash flow reached $0 and free cash flow totaled $0, backed by $937.9M in total assets against $147.7M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C- • RQD 59/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 13/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $11.85 – $17.26 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector correlation is limited to the Consumer Discretionary / Apparel classification. The only second-order channel the source data supports is macro liquidity: the signal attributes a 6.00x sensitivity to the Net Liquidity Index, meaning that movements in that index would be expected to amplify REF's price response per the stated regression. Bottlenecks in the operating supply chain are — Investors should note that a liquidity-driven thesis carries a regression correlation of r = -0.19 per the signal, a relatively weak fit.

  • Key Question #1: Can REF sustain or expand its — operating margin and — ROIC against Apparel peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $393.9M and free cash flow of $0, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $147.7M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is REF's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

REF Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Reformation Inc. (REF) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to REF Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

REF Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $15.82?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON REF 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on REF:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $20.88 (+32.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The Butterfly signal scores REF a 96/100 Macro Tailwind with a 6.00x Net Liquidity beta while the balance sheet holds cash of $65.5M ag

Long REF at $15.82 targeting $20.88. The Butterfly signal scores REF a 96/100 Macro Tailwind with a 6.00x Net Liquidity beta while the balance sheet holds cash of $65.5M against debt of $147.7M.. Institutional whale score is 13/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $11.85 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Shorting a 13/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $15.82 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $12.02 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $15.82

Valuation & margin reality check on REF at $15.82 before chasing here

Fading this rally in REF at $15.82. Valuation & margin reality check on REF at $15.82 before chasing here. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $15.82 (52-wk range $11.85–$17.26), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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