PROG Holdings Inc. (PRG) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$34.75 +3.79% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $34.92

PROG Holdings Inc. (PRG) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.36B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is PRG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, PROG Holdings Inc. (NYSE: PRG) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $34.75 (+3.79% 1D, market cap $1.36B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, PRG ranks #174 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does PRG compare to UPBD and ARLO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), PRG carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 37.3%. By comparison, UPBD (Upbound Group Inc.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 16.0x, ROIC 30.7%, cap $1.21B) and ARLO (Arlo Technologies Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 106.3x, ROIC 6.0%, cap $1.56B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PRG leads on earnings multiple (8.9x) while PRG leads on capital efficiency (37.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PRG?
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Per PRG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001808834), PROG Holdings Inc. generated $2.41B in revenue (+0.4% YoY), $146.8M in net income, and $324.9M in free cash flow against $1.61B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $34.92 (+0.49%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) • 13.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510069
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk D+
Cash (19)Whales (11)SEC (14)Macro (8)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.9% Base Target
$50 Bull$36 Base$28 Bear
📬 FREE PRG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PRG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY PRG SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 13.5% FCF Margin ($324.9M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (60.6) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
61
Grade C$30.58+1.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
64
Grade C+$30.92-4.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
66
Grade B-$29.61+17.4% Next Q
Current
69
Grade C+$34.75+2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (61) → C+ (69)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PRG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, PRG faces multiple-compression risk if 8.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($33.83) or 200D SMA ($35.68) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($36.47) toward Bear Floor ($28.45).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PRG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “PRG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your PRG Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $34.75: 287.8 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $28.45
$8,187
$-1,813 (-18.1%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $36.47
$10,495
+$495 (+4.9%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $50.12
$14,423
+$4,423 (+44.2%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$3874%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$4769%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$3258%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (PRG Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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PRG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -3.18%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $33.48H $34.75L $33.48C $34.75VOL 1.01M
RES: $43.73SUP: $24.92SMA50: $33.83SMA200: $35.68
$49.31$42.77$36.23$29.69$23.15RES $43.73SUP $24.92$34.752026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PRG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-3.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +0.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PRG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PRG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PRG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PRG)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #174 of 1011 ⚔️ UPBD vs PRG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (PRG vs. UPBD, ARLO, KPLT, CTOS)

Industry: Diversified Commercial Services (32 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, PROG Holdings Inc. (PRG) ranks #174 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #471 by equity capitalization ($1.36B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PRG leads on earnings valuation at 8.9x trailing P/E, while PRG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 37.3% ROIC and — gross margin. UPBD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with PRG at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
PRG ACTIVE
PROG Holdings Inc.
C+ 69/100 8.9x — 37.3% +3.79% $1.36B Benchmark Subject
UPBD
Upbound Group Inc.
B- 70/100 16.0x 48.4% 30.7% +3.60% $1.21B /upbd-vs-prg →
ARLO
Arlo Technologies Inc.
C 63/100 106.3x 44.0% 6.0% -1.90% $1.56B /arlo-vs-prg →
KPLT
Katapult Holdings Inc.
D 47/100 — 17.7% -0.8% -17.09% $880.7M /kplt-vs-prg →
CTOS
Custom Truck One Source Inc.
C- 60/100 — 28.5% 4.1% -2.93% $2.41B /ctos-vs-prg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001808834

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), PROG Holdings Inc. (PRG) reported GAAP revenue of $2.41B (+0.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.40B , and +3.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $146.8M, operating cash flow of $335.0M, and free cash flow of $324.9M (+149.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, PRG closed FY2025 with $1.61B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.21, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.41B $146.8M $335.0M $324.9M $1.61B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.40B $197.2M $138.5M $130.2M $1.51B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $2.34B $138.8M $204.2M $204.2M — —

3. PRG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PRG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, PROG Holdings Inc. (NYSE: PRG) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $34.75 (+3.79% 1D, market cap $1.36B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, PRG ranks #174 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PRG compare to UPBD and ARLO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), PRG carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 37.3%. By comparison, UPBD (Upbound Group Inc.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 16.0x, ROIC 30.7%, cap $1.21B) and ARLO (Arlo Technologies Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 106.3x, ROIC 6.0%, cap $1.56B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PRG leads on earnings multiple (8.9x) while PRG leads on capital efficiency (37.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PRG?

Per PRG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001808834), PROG Holdings Inc. generated $2.41B in revenue (+0.4% YoY), $146.8M in net income, and $324.9M in free cash flow against $1.61B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PRG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PRG last traded at $34.75 (+3.79% on volume of 1,009,558 shares), positioning the stock +2.72% above its 50-day simple moving average ($33.83) and -2.61% below its 200-day simple moving average ($35.68). Across its 52-week range of $25.18 to $47.73, PRG sits at the 42.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 60.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.4% ($30.79 to $38.71).

PRG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is PRG's 12-month stock price target?

PROG Holdings Inc. (PRG) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $36.47 (+4.9% from $34.75), with a bull-case target of $50.12 and a bear-case floor of $28.45.

Is PRG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates PRG C+ (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 69/100.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 69/100 (C+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

PRG — PROG Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:29:42Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, PRG scores 69 out of 100, a C+ grade, with the verdict "Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 19 of 20 (ROIC 37.3%; FCF yield 24.89%), the strongest component and the main reason the score sits above neutral; Whale 13F Flow at 10 of 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), a middling reading; Insider Conviction at 17 of 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), a supportive reading; Macro Regime Fit at 9 of 20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), a weak reading that reflects market-level sensitivity; and Forensic Balance Sheet at 14 of 20 (Altman Z 4.21; Piotroski F 4/9; Debt/Equity 0.5), a moderate reading. For a prospective investor, the upside case rests on cash generation and insider activity, while the valuation case appears low on the market data (P/E TTM 8.9, EV/EBITDA 4.6). The tradeoffs are a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 and a macro-sensitivity pillar that scores below half, so the rating describes a stock to monitor for a directional signal rather than one the rating treats as high-conviction. This is educational analysis, not personalized financial advice.

Snapshot

MetricValue
Price33.48
Market Cap$1.31B
P/E (TTM)8.9
Forward P/E8.3
EV/EBITDA4.6
EPS (TTM)3.76
Dividend Yield1.59%
Beta1.0
52-Wk Range$25.18 - $47.73
ROIC %37.3%

Business

PROG Holdings Inc. (PRG) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Diversified Commercial Services industry, per the company profile. Beyond the sector and industry classification, the source data does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model. Revenue, margin, and cash-flow figures in the financials section indicate an operating business with reported revenue of $2409.2M in FY 2025.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$2409.2M$206.8M$146.8MN/A$324.9M$308.8MN/A
FY 2024$2399.1M$194.7M$197.2MN/A$130.2M$90.9MN/A
FY 2023$2339.4M$218.7M$138.8MN/A$204.2MN/AN/A

Per the market data, operating margin is 8.6%, net margin is 6.1%, and gross margin is reported as 0%. ROIC is 37.3%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 4.21, the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. Reported FCF rose from $130.2M in FY 2024 to $324.9M in FY 2025. Debt figures are not available in source data.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • Catalyst (GREEN): Seeking Alpha headline reports PROG Holdings raised to Buy at Loop Capital.
  • Catalyst (GREEN): FinancialContent headline reports PRG "soaring today."
  • Catalyst (GREEN): GuruFocus headline reports PRG shares rising after a Loop Capital upgrade.
  • Risk Watch (RED): ChartMill headline reports PRG sliding after a Q3 miss and cut guidance.
  • Market Wire (YELLOW): Yahoo! Finance Canada and Stocktwits items cover market action and positioning, with no specific detail in the summaries.

Butterfly supply-chain graph: sector Consumer Discretionary, industry Diversified Commercial Services, supply chain reported as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What drove the reported Q3 miss and guidance cut referenced in the ChartMill headline, and how large was the revision?
  • What are PRG's reported debt levels, given that debt is listed as N/A across all periods?
  • Why do FY 2024 net income ($197.2M) and FY 2025 net income ($146.8M) diverge from operating income trends?
  • What is the reported EPS for each fiscal period, given EPS is listed as N/A in the financial statements?
  • What is the company's product and customer mix, which the source data does not describe beyond sector classification?

PRG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for PROG Holdings Inc. (PRG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to PRG Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

PRG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $34.75?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON PRG 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on PRG:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $36.16 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is PRG (C+ • RQD 69/100) a Buy at $33.48?

Welcome to the PRG (PROG Holdings Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 69/100 (Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout) in Diversified Commercial Services. Bulls point to capital efficiency (37.3% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $27.79 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $33.48

Pump the brakes on PRG — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on PRG, but look at what you are paying: 8.9x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless PROG Holdings Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $41.85 (+25.0%)
Spot @ $33.48

PRG cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on PRG, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Diversified Commercial Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $33.48 (52-wk range $25.18 - $47.73), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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