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Post Holdings Inc. (POST) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$85.69 +2.97% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $85.99

Post Holdings Inc. (POST) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.66B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on POST Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is POST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Post Holdings Inc. (NYSE: POST) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $85.69 (+2.97% 1D, market cap $3.66B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 6/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, POST ranks #79 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does POST compare to FRPT and MZTI in the Consumer Staples sector?
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Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), POST carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.7x, gross margin of 28.7%, and ROIC of 5.9%. By comparison, FRPT (Freshpet Inc.) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 22.8x, ROIC 6.4%, cap $3.24B) and MZTI (The Marzetti Company) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 17.8x, ROIC 20.9%, cap $2.99B). Among the 5-stock peer group, INGR leads on earnings multiple (8.3x) while MZTI leads on capital efficiency (20.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for POST?
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Per POST's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001530950), Post Holdings Inc. generated $8.16B in revenue (+3.0% YoY), $335.7M in net income, and $998.3M in free cash flow against $12.98B in total assets and $7.46B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $85.98 (+0.34%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 12.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510048
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D-
Cash (12)Whales (10)SEC (6)Macro (8)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target
$123 Bull$82 Base$64 Bear
📬 FREE POST RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for POST)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY POST SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 12.2% FCF Margin ($998.3M FCF) & 28.7% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+12/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 60% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 14 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
40
Grade D$76.94+1.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
43
Grade D$78.26+1.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
45
Grade D$79.40+7.9% Next Q
Current
48
Grade D$85.69-5.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (40) → D (48)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a POST Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While POST currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to SEC 10-K Forensic Risk (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($78.51) and Max Pain ($89.97) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $123.14.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $POST• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “POST Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your POST Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $85.69: 116.7 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $63.83
$7,449
$-2,551 (-25.5%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $81.83
$9,550
$-450 (-4.5%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $123.14
$14,370
+$4,370 (+43.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$8574%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$11669%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$7358%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring POST)

  • ✓Walkthrough of POST's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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POST // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -17.48%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $81.65H $85.69L $81.65C $85.69VOL 552.5K
RES: $88.14SUP: $68.93SMA50: $78.51SMA200: $91.90
$108.1$98.17$88.24$78.30$68.37RES $88.14SUP $68.93$85.692026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

POST Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 POST Butterfly Map → + Track POST →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
0.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on POST today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for POST. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for POST today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (POST)

Consumer Staples Rank #79 of 146 ⚔️ FRPT vs POST Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (POST vs. FRPT, MZTI, INGR, CPB)

Industry: Packaged Foods (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Post Holdings Inc. (POST) ranks #79 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #45 by equity capitalization ($3.66B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, INGR leads on earnings valuation at 8.3x trailing P/E, while MZTI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 20.9% ROIC and 23.9% gross margin. FRPT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with POST at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
POST ACTIVE
Post Holdings Inc.
D 48/100 10.7x 28.7% 5.9% +2.97% $3.66B Benchmark Subject
FRPT
Freshpet Inc.
B- 71/100 22.8x 40.8% 6.4% +3.14% $3.24B /frpt-vs-post →
MZTI
The Marzetti Company
C 65/100 17.8x 23.9% 20.9% +1.08% $2.99B /mzti-vs-post →
INGR
Ingredion Incorporated
C 63/100 8.3x 25.3% 16.1% +2.02% $6.12B /ingr-vs-post →
CPB
The Campbell's Company
C 63/100 10.4x 30.4% 10.8% +3.36% $6.39B /cpb-vs-post →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001530950

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Post Holdings Inc. (POST) reported GAAP revenue of $8.16B (+3.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $7.92B , and +16.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $335.7M, operating cash flow of $998.3M, and free cash flow of $998.3M (+7.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, POST closed FY2025 with $12.98B in total assets against $7.46B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.38, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-09-30 $8.16B $335.7M $998.3M $998.3M $12.98B $7.46B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-09-30 $7.92B $366.7M $931.7M $931.7M $12.82B $6.94B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-09-30 $6.99B $301.3M $750.3M $750.3M — —

3. POST Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is POST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Post Holdings Inc. (NYSE: POST) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $85.69 (+2.97% 1D, market cap $3.66B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 6/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, POST ranks #79 in composite RQD confidence.

How does POST compare to FRPT and MZTI in the Consumer Staples sector?

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), POST carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.7x, gross margin of 28.7%, and ROIC of 5.9%. By comparison, FRPT (Freshpet Inc.) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 22.8x, ROIC 6.4%, cap $3.24B) and MZTI (The Marzetti Company) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 17.8x, ROIC 20.9%, cap $2.99B). Among the 5-stock peer group, INGR leads on earnings multiple (8.3x) while MZTI leads on capital efficiency (20.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for POST?

Per POST's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001530950), Post Holdings Inc. generated $8.16B in revenue (+3.0% YoY), $335.7M in net income, and $998.3M in free cash flow against $12.98B in total assets and $7.46B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is POST trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

POST last traded at $85.69 (+2.97% on volume of 819,298 shares), positioning the stock +9.15% above its 50-day simple moving average ($78.51) and -6.76% below its 200-day simple moving average ($91.90). Across its 52-week range of $71.45 to $117.28, POST sits at the 31.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.5% ($80.98 to $90.40).

Direct Sub-Reports: POST RQD Cockpit POST 12M Forecast POST Earnings & Move POST Dividends & DRIP POST Insiders & 13F POST Whale Options POST Profit Sankey POST News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 48/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

POST — Post Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-09-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Post Holdings Inc. (POST) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 48/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $85.69 (+2.97% 1D, market capitalization $3.66B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 5.9%, gross margin of 28.7%, operating margin of 9.8%, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (6/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.38, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 2.16x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Post Holdings Inc. (POST) is a NYSE-listed operating company in the Packaged Foods industry (Consumer Staples sector) with an equity market capitalization of $3.66B. The business operates with a gross margin of 28.7%, an operating margin of 9.8%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 5.9% (free cash flow yield of 0%). Within the Packaged Foods peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-09-30), Post Holdings Inc. (POST) reported $8.16B in annual revenue (up from $7.92B in FY2024, +3.0% YoY) and $335.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($6.99B revenue, $301.3M net income) through FY2025, POST scaled operating cash flow to $998.3M and free cash flow to $998.3M, backed by $12.98B in total assets against $7.46B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 48/100): Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $71.45 – $117.28 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 10.7x trailing P/E and 13.5x EV/EBITDA against 9.8% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Investors should not infer 2nd-order exposures from the sector label alone, because the source does not map them.

  • Key Question #1: Can POST sustain or expand its 9.8% operating margin and 5.9% ROIC against Packaged Foods peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $8.16B and free cash flow of $998.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $7.46B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is POST's 10.0x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Staples capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

POST Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Post Holdings Inc. (POST) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to POST Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

POST Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $85.69?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON POST 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on POST:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $105.69 (+27.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Low earnings multiples (P/E 10.7 TTM, forward P/E 10) against a 52-week range that already includes a $117.28 high leave room for re-ra

Low earnings multiples (P/E 10.7 TTM, forward P/E 10) against a 52-week range that already includes a $117.28 high leave room for re-rating if cash returns improve.. When you look under the hood at POST, Fundamental Cash Engine is 12/20 with 28.7% gross margins and 5.9% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (10/20) has been quietly accumulating below $117.28. My 12M target is $105.69.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Shorting a 10/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $83.22 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Staples.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $66.58 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $83.22

A 0% FCF yield, 5.9% ROIC, Altman Z of 1.38, and Debt/Equity of 2.16 point to a weak cash engine and leveraged balance sheet that the R

Careful chasing POST at $83.22. A 0% FCF yield, 5.9% ROIC, Altman Z of 1.38, and Debt/Equity of 2.16 point to a weak cash engine and leveraged balance sheet that the RQD rating scores as a distribution warning.. Gross margin is 28.7%, but operating margin is 9.8%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $66.58 on multiple compression.

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