Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / PKG / dividends

SW (56) KMB (72) AVY (74) WMS (71) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$256.82 +0.90% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $257.85

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 75/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (21% profit margin, 11% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 75/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.7% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $22.88B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on PKG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is PKG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

▼

As of 2026-11-03, Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE: PKG) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 75/100 at a spot price of $256.82 (+0.90% 1D, market cap $22.88B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, PKG ranks #60 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does PKG compare to SW and KMB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

▼

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Containers/Packaging), PKG carries a Roarable B (75/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 29.3x, gross margin of 21.0%, and ROIC of 10.9%. By comparison, SW (Smurfit WestRock plc) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 31.9x, ROIC 4.7%, cap $22.60B) and KMB (Kimberly-Clark Corporation) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 18.1x, ROIC 43.6%, cap $35.90B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KMB leads on earnings multiple (18.1x) while KMB leads on capital efficiency (43.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PKG?

▼

Per PKG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000075677), Packaging Corporation of America generated $8.99B in revenue (+7.2% YoY), $774.1M in net income, and $728.6M in free cash flow against $10.73B in total assets and $3.97B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (21% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $257.85 (+0.40%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 8.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 75/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.7% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PKG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (75/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY PKG SCORES 75/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.58 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.4% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (67.8) create a -10 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B-$229.96+3.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B$239.00+3.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B$248.44+3.4% Next Q

Current

Grade B$256.82+7.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B- (67) → B (75)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PKG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 75/100 (B) score, PKG faces multiple-compression risk if 29.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 18.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($237.71) or 200D SMA ($229.93) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($276.47) toward Bear Floor ($210.59).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PKG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “PKG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 75%NO 25%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD

3.78% Total Yield

1.98% Cash ($5.09/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks

PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER

88/100 • FORTRESS PAYOUT

FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO

40.1% of FCF

8 consecutive years of payout growth

INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (7.7% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $20,997

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $794/yr

Starting Investment: $10,000

Compounding Horizon: 10 Years

$10.8K

Yr 1

$11.6K

Yr 2

$12.5K

Yr 3

$13.5K

Yr 4

$14.5K

Yr 5

$15.6K

Yr 6

$16.8K

Yr 7

$18.1K

Yr 8

$19.5K

Yr 9

$21.0K

Yr 10

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Cash-Flow & Quality Compounder Desk

Cash-Fortress Compounders: Auditing Free Cash Flow & Yield Safety in PKG & A-Rated Leaders

✓12-month Bull/Base/Bear fair-value walkthrough on PKG and its top sector peer
✓Top Roarable A-Rated cash compounders with verified executive & 13F accumulation
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

PKG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +17.77%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $254.5H $256.8L $254.5C $256.8VOL 555.8K

RES: $257.1SUP: $225.6SMA50: $237.7SMA200: $229.9

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PKG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 PKG Butterfly Map → + Track PKG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

22.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PKG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PKG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PKG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PKG)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #60 of 1011 ⚔️ SW vs PKG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (PKG vs. SW, KMB, AVY, WMS)

Industry: Containers/Packaging (17 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) ranks #60 by composite RQD confidence (75/100, grade B) and #90 by equity capitalization ($22.88B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KMB leads on earnings valuation at 18.1x trailing P/E, while KMB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 43.6% ROIC and 36.0% gross margin. PKG currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 75/100 (B).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
PKG ACTIVE Packaging Corporation of America	B	75/100	29.3x	21.0%	10.9%	+0.90%	$22.88B	Benchmark Subject
SW Smurfit WestRock plc	D+	56/100	31.9x	19.4%	4.7%	+1.32%	$22.60B	/sw-vs-pkg →
KMB Kimberly-Clark Corporation	B	72/100	18.1x	36.0%	43.6%	-1.89%	$35.90B	/kmb-vs-pkg →
AVY Avery Dennison Corporation	B	74/100	20.1x	28.8%	17.4%	+0.09%	$13.81B	/avy-vs-pkg →
WMS Advanced Drainage Systems Inc.	B-	71/100	24.0x	38.3%	22.3%	-0.80%	$10.21B	/wms-vs-pkg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000075677

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) reported GAAP revenue of $8.99B (+7.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $8.38B , and +15.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $774.1M, operating cash flow of $1.56B, and free cash flow of $728.6M (+39.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, PKG closed FY2025 with $10.73B in total assets against $3.97B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.58, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$8.99B	$774.1M	$1.56B	$728.6M	$10.73B	$3.97B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$8.38B	$805.1M	$1.19B	$521.5M	$8.83B	$2.47B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$7.80B	$765.2M	$1.32B	$964.0M	$12.47B	$2.92B

3. PKG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PKG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does PKG compare to SW and KMB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PKG?

Where is PKG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PKG last traded at $256.82 (+0.90% on volume of 555,811 shares), positioning the stock +8.04% above its 50-day simple moving average ($237.71) and +11.69% above its 200-day simple moving average ($229.93). Across its 52-week range of $191.50 to $259.98, PKG sits at the 95.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 67.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.4% ($245.52 to $268.12).

PKG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Does PKG pay a dividend and is it safe?

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) offers a 1.98% cash dividend yield ($5.09 annualized) and 3.78% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as FORTRESS PAYOUT.

Direct Sub-Reports: PKG RQD Cockpit PKG 12M Forecast PKG Earnings & Move PKG Dividends & DRIP PKG Insiders & 13F PKG Whale Options PKG Profit Sankey PKG News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 75/100 (B) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

PKG — Packaging Corporation of America: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:13:17Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, PKG scores 75 out of 100, a letter grade of B, with the verdict label "Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward." The five pillars are:

Fundamental Cash Engine: 16 / 20. Per the RQD pillar detail, this reflects an ROIC of 10.9% and an FCF yield of 3.21%. For an investor, this suggests the business earns a return above the level typically associated with weak capital allocation, and it produces free cash relative to its market value, though the FCF yield is modest.
Whale 13F Flow: 17 / 20. The RQD attributes this to institutional accumulation and options positioning. This is the strongest pillar on the rating and indicates that large holders have been net buyers in the data provided.
Insider Conviction: 14 / 20. The RQD cites SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The score is solid but not top-tier, implying insider activity is supportive without being an overwhelming signal.
Macro Regime Fit: 10 / 20. The RQD notes a beta of 0.94 and sector sensitivity. This is the weakest pillar. A beta near 1.0 means the stock has tended to move roughly in line with the broader market, so it offers limited defensive shelter in a sell-off, and its performance depends on sector conditions the source data does not further describe.
Forensic Balance Sheet: 18 / 20. Per the RQD, the Altman Z-Score is 4.58, the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.86. These readings describe a balance sheet the rating treats as financially sound and low in bankruptcy risk.

Investor implications: the rating's upside case rests on institutional accumulation and balance-sheet strength. The valuation tradeoff is visible in the market data: at a P/E (TTM) of 29.3 and a forward P/E of 27.2, the stock is priced at a premium relative to its FCF yield of 3.21%. The macro pillar at 10/20 signals that the stock is not positioned as a clear beneficiary of the current regime. This is an educational reading of the scores, not a recommendation.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
$254.53	$22.68B	29.3	27.2	14.4	8.69	1.98%	0.94	$191.5 - $259.98	10.9%

Business

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Containers/Packaging industry, per the profile. The profile section identifies the company's market capitalization as $22.7B. Not available in source data for product detail, customer base, or revenue mix. Not available in source data for how the company generates its revenue beyond its industry classification.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

The news feed contains six items, all tagged to PKG and all carrying a YELLOW light and a MARKET WIRE impact label. Headlines include a Yahoo! Finance Canada market report, a 24/7 Wall St. analysis, a Seeking Alpha piece titled on whether a good company is always a good stock, a ChartMill note on dividend quality, a Yahoo Finance preview of Q3 earnings, and a TradingView preview of Q3 earnings. Several items reference Q3 earnings as an upcoming event, but no earnings date, consensus figures, or results are provided. Risk watch items are limited to the neutral YELLOW tagging on every item. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports a supply chain status of NONE, no butterfly links, and no proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain status is NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Sector classification is Consumer Discretionary and industry is Containers/Packaging. No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks are identified in the source data. Not available in source data for named suppliers, customers, or input-cost exposures.

Open Questions

What is the Q3 earnings date and consensus expectation, given that multiple headlines reference an upcoming Q3 report?
What drove the increase in total debt from $2474.2M in FY 2024 to $3967.3M in FY 2025, and how is it being serviced?
What are the EPS figures for each fiscal year, since the financials show EPS as not available?
Which specific institutions and insiders account for the accumulation signals behind the Whale 13F and Insider pillars?
How does the company's cash generation trend in FCF, which fell from $964.0M in FY 2023 to $521.5M in FY 2024 before recovering to $728.6M in FY 2025?

PKG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to PKG Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 19h ago

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Stock Price, News, Quote & History

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE 24/7 Wall St. • 22h ago

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Stock Price, News & Analysis

24/7 Wall St. report covering Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Packaging Corporation of America: A Good Company Isn't Always A Good Stock (NYSE:PKG)

Seeking Alpha report covering Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE ChartMill • 1d ago

Packaging Corp of America (NYSE:PKG) Checks the Boxes for Dividend Quality

ChartMill report covering Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

What To Expect From Packaging Corporation of America’s (PKG) Q3 Earnings

Yahoo Finance report covering Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Packaging Corp. Gears Up for Q3 Earnings: What to Expect?

TradingView report covering Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

5 insightful analyst questions from Packaging Corporation of America’s Q3 earnings call

TradingView report covering Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Packaging Corporation of America’s (NYSE:PKG) Q3 2026 earnings results: revenue in line with expectations

Yahoo Finance report covering Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

PKG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $256.82?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON PKG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $300.35 (+18.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is PKG (B • RQD 75/100) a Buy at $254.53?

Welcome to the PKG (Packaging Corporation of America) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 75/100 (Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward) in Containers/Packaging. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

FO ForensicBear Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $201.08 (-21.0%)

Spot @ $254.53

Pump the brakes on PKG — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on PKG, but look at what you are paying: 29.3x trailing P/E with 21.0% gross margins. Unless Packaging Corporation of America expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

DE DeltaGamma_99 Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $315.62 (+24.0%)

Spot @ $254.53

PKG cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on PKG, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Containers/Packaging and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $254.53 (52-wk range $191.50 - $259.98), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.