Stock Ratings / Financials / PDLB / earnings

NRIM (64) FMAO (68) KRNY (55) HTB (63) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±4.1% Move

$22.49 -0.84% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.41

Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $548.6M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on PDLB Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is PDLB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

▼

As of 2026-11-02, Ponce Financial Group Inc. (NASDAQ: PDLB) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $22.49 (-0.84% 1D, market cap $548.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, PDLB ranks #191 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does PDLB compare to NRIM and FMAO in the Financials sector?

▼

Within the Financials sector (Savings Institutions), PDLB carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 19.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.1%. By comparison, NRIM (Northrim BanCorp Inc) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 8.3x, ROIC 19.8%, cap $537.9M) and FMAO (Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc.) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 15.3x, ROIC 9.0%, cap $510.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NRIM leads on earnings multiple (8.3x) while NRIM leads on capital efficiency (19.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PDLB?

▼

Per PDLB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001874071), Ponce Financial Group Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $27.6M in net income, and $54.6M in free cash flow against $3.22B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.41 (-0.34%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 1.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PDLB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY PDLB SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.1% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (78.7) create a -8 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$20.15-0.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$20.03+6.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$21.26+5.8% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$22.49+1.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (60) → C+ (68)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PDLB Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, PDLB faces multiple-compression risk if 19.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($20.50) or 200D SMA ($18.76) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($23.50) toward Bear Floor ($18.33).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PDLB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “PDLB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 68%NO 32%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±4.1% Swing Band

±$0.92 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

PDLB Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 68/100

Trailing EPS: $1.14 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (68/100)Model Risk Weight (32/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$0	$27.6M	$54.6M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$0	$10.3M	$4.5M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$0	$3.4M	$6.5M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating PDLB & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on PDLB
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

PDLB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +29.25%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $22.41H $22.68L $22.41C $22.49VOL 214.0K

RES: $23.83SUP: $20.08SMA50: $20.50SMA200: $18.76

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PDLB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 PDLB Butterfly Map → + Track PDLB →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

13.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PDLB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PDLB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PDLB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PDLB)

Financials Rank #191 of 1096 ⚔️ NRIM vs PDLB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (PDLB vs. NRIM, FMAO, KRNY, HTB)

Industry: Savings Institutions (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) ranks #191 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #684 by equity capitalization ($548.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NRIM leads on earnings valuation at 8.3x trailing P/E, while NRIM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 19.8% ROIC and — gross margin. PDLB currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
PDLB ACTIVE Ponce Financial Group Inc.	C+	68/100	19.9x	—	5.1%	-0.84%	$548.6M	Benchmark Subject
NRIM Northrim BanCorp Inc	C	64/100	8.3x	—	19.8%	-1.36%	$537.9M	/nrim-vs-pdlb →
FMAO Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc.	C+	68/100	15.3x	—	9.0%	-1.86%	$510.7M	/fmao-vs-pdlb →
KRNY Kearny Financial Corp	D+	55/100	23.0x	—	3.4%	-1.19%	$599.3M	/krny-vs-pdlb →
HTB HomeTrust Bancshares Inc.	C	63/100	11.6x	—	10.7%	-2.03%	$747.9M	/htb-vs-pdlb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001874071

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $27.6M, operating cash flow of $55.6M, and free cash flow of $54.6M (+1115.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, PDLB closed FY2025 with $3.22B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$27.6M	$55.6M	$54.6M	$3.22B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$10.3M	$7.2M	$4.5M	$3.04B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$3.4M	$6.5M	$6.5M	—	—

3. PDLB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PDLB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does PDLB compare to NRIM and FMAO in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PDLB?

Where is PDLB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PDLB last traded at $22.49 (-0.84% on volume of 247,450 shares), positioning the stock +9.71% above its 50-day simple moving average ($20.50) and +19.88% above its 200-day simple moving average ($18.76). Across its 52-week range of $13.91 to $22.81, PDLB sits at the 96.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 78.7 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.1% ($21.57 to $23.41).

PDLB Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is PDLB's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is PDLB stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±4.1% event move for PDLB, spanning a range between $21.57 and $23.41.

Direct Sub-Reports: PDLB RQD Cockpit PDLB 12M Forecast PDLB Earnings & Move PDLB Dividends & DRIP PDLB Insiders & 13F PDLB Whale Options PDLB Profit Sankey PDLB News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 68/100 (C+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

PDLB — Ponce Financial Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:35:09Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, PDLB scores 68 out of 100, a C+ grade labeled "Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 (ROIC 5.1%; FCF yield 9.96%), Whale 13F Flow at 15/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 15/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 12/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 5/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). For a prospective investor, the strongest pillars are the two flow-based pillars, which together carry the score's upper-neutral tilt. The fundamental and balance-sheet pillars sit in the middle of their ranges, and the macro pillar is the weakest, reflecting a market-neutral beta. The upside case rests on the FCF yield of 9.96% and institutional and insider positioning; the valuation tradeoff is a trailing P/E of 19.9 against a forward P/E of 18.5, with a 52-week range of $13.91 to $22.81 and the price at $22.68 near the top of that band. The rating's "Watch for Breakout" label signals that the score is not yet a clear buy signal.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$0.0M	$0.0M	$27.6M	N/A	$54.6M	$126.2M	N/A
FY 2024	$0.0M	$0.0M	$10.3M	N/A	$4.5M	$139.8M	N/A
FY 2023	$0.0M	$0.0M	$3.4M	N/A	$6.5M	N/A	N/A

Per the SEC financials, net income rose from $3.4M in FY 2023 to $27.6M in FY 2025, and free cash flow reached $54.6M in FY 2025. Per the market data, gross, operating, and net margins are each reported as 0%, so margin analysis is not available in source data. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 5.1%, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5, and the Piotroski F-Score is 5 out of 9. Per the Roarable RQD rating, Debt/Equity is 0.5, and per the SEC financials, cash was $126.2M at FY 2025 versus $139.8M at FY 2024.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Earnings (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW): A headline reports "Q3 Earnings Lag Estimates" for PDLB.
Tax-driven profit (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW): A headline reports a one-time $10.5 million tax benefit that helped the company report $18.2 million in quarterly profit. This is a non-recurring item to weigh against the quarterly earnings miss.
Growth framing (CATALYST, GREEN): A headline asks whether PDLB is a solid growth stock and offers three reasons for "Yes."
Valuation framing (CATALYST, GREEN): A headline asks whether PDLB is overvalued after a 3.1% rally.
Investor attention (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW): A headline notes the stock has caught investor attention.
Proprietary signals: Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no proprietary signals are present.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as "NONE," with no butterfly links. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are therefore not available in source data. The only sector-level context provided is the Financials / Savings Institutions classification and the beta of 1.0, which indicates market-level sensitivity. A prospective investor should monitor interest-rate and credit-cycle conditions affecting the sector, but the source data does not quantify these links for PDLB.

Open Questions

What is the company's revenue and operating income, given both are reported as $0.0M in the SEC financials?
What drove the Q3 earnings miss, and how much of the quarter's profit depends on the one-time $10.5 million tax benefit?
What are the FY 2025 debt and EPS figures, which are reported as N/A?
What are the institutional 13F holdings and Form 4 insider transactions underlying the Whale and Insider pillar scores?
What is the EV/EBITDA multiple, and how does PDLB's valuation compare to peers in Savings Institutions?

PDLB Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to PDLB Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 11h ago

Ponce Financial (PDLB) Q3 Earnings Lag Estimates

Yahoo Finance report covering Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 14h ago

Ponce Financial Group, Inc. Estimates – NASDAQ:PDLB

TradingView report covering Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 17h ago

Is Ponce Financial (PDLB) a Solid Growth Stock? 3 Reasons to Think "Yes"

Yahoo Finance report covering Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 20h ago

A one-time $10.5 million tax benefit helped Ponce Financial report $18.2 million in quarterly profit.

Stock Titan report covering Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST GuruFocus • 23h ago

Is Ponce Financial Group Inc (PDLB) Overvalued After 3.1% Rally?

GuruFocus report covering Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Here's Why Ponce Financial Group (NASDAQ:PDLB) Has Caught The Eye Of Investors

Simply Wall St report covering Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST kalkine.ca • 1d ago

Ponce Financial (NASDAQ:PDLB) Posts a Big Quarterly Jump, but a Tax Benefit Did Some of the Work

kalkine.ca report covering Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Ponce Financial: Q3 Earnings Snapshot

Yahoo Finance report covering Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

PDLB Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $22.49?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON PDLB 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $24.49 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is PDLB (C+ • RQD 68/100) a Buy at $22.68?

Welcome to the PDLB (Ponce Financial Group Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 68/100 (Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout) in Savings Institutions. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $17.92 (-21.0%)

Spot @ $22.68

Pump the brakes on PDLB — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on PDLB, but look at what you are paying: 19.9x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Ponce Financial Group Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $28.12 (+24.0%)

Spot @ $22.68

PDLB cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on PDLB, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Savings Institutions and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $22.68 (52-wk range $13.91 - $22.81), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.