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Why ORRF Stock surged +3.07% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$45.27 +3.07% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $45.63

Orrstown Financial Services Inc. (ORRF) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 73/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 14% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $863.9M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ORRF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Orrstown Financial Services Inc. (NASDAQ: ORRF) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 73/100 at a spot price of $45.27 (+3.07% 1D, market cap $863.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ORRF ranks #59 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ORRF compare to MPB and CCBG in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), ORRF carries a Roarable B (73/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.7%. By comparison, MPB (Mid Penn Bancorp) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 15.4x, ROIC 6.9%, cap $860.4M) and CCBG (Capital City Bank Group) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 14.2x, ROIC 11.1%, cap $870.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ORRF leads on earnings multiple (10.8x) while ORRF leads on capital efficiency (13.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ORRF?
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Per ORRF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000826154), Orrstown Financial Services Inc. generated $37.1M in revenue (+36.0% YoY), $80.9M in net income, and $70.5M in free cash flow against $5.54B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $45.63 (+0.79%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 189.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 73/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B
025507510073
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk C+
Cash (15)Whales (14)SEC (13)Macro (14)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+6.8% Base Target
$57 Bull$48 Base$37 Bear
📬 FREE ORRF RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ORRF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (73/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ORRF SCORES 73/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 189.8% FCF Margin ($70.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 7 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
65
Grade C+$41.18+2.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
68
Grade B-$42.10+5.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
70
Grade B$44.29+2.2% Next Q
Current
73
Grade B$45.27+7.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C+ (65) → B (73)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ORRF Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 73/100 (B) score, ORRF faces multiple-compression risk if 10.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($42.20) or 200D SMA ($39.30) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($48.33) toward Bear Floor ($37.12).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ORRF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ORRF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why ORRF Stock surged +3.07% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Orrstown Financial Services Inc. (ORRF) surged +3.07% to $45.27, trading at 99% of its 52-week range ($32.5 – $45.4). High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 14% return on capital) with steady institutional support.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 99% of its 52-week range ($32.5 – $45.4) with RSI-14 at 59.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.3% around $45.27 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable B (Buy) backed by 52% gross margin and $70.5M annual free cash flow.
Live ORRF Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ORRF Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
ORRF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +23.99%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $44.44H $45.27L $43.92C $45.27VOL 94.6K
RES: $45.69SUP: $39.01SMA50: $42.20SMA200: $39.30
$46.14$43.08$40.02$36.97$33.91RES $45.69SUP $39.01$45.272026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ORRF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
0.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +36.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ORRF today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ORRF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ORRF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ORRF)

Financials Rank #59 of 1097 ⚔️ MPB vs ORRF Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ORRF vs. MPB, CCBG, GSBC, FCBC)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Orrstown Financial Services Inc. (ORRF) ranks #59 by composite RQD confidence (73/100, grade B) and #582 by equity capitalization ($863.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ORRF leads on earnings valuation at 10.8x trailing P/E, while ORRF leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.7% ROIC and — gross margin. ORRF currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 73/100 (B).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ORRF ACTIVE
Orrstown Financial Services Inc.
B 73/100 10.8x — 13.7% +3.07% $863.9M Benchmark Subject
MPB
Mid Penn Bancorp
D+ 57/100 15.4x — 6.9% +2.37% $860.4M /mpb-vs-orrf →
CCBG
Capital City Bank Group
B- 70/100 14.2x — 11.1% +2.14% $870.4M /ccbg-vs-orrf →
GSBC
Great Southern Bancorp Inc.
B- 70/100 12.4x — 11.2% +1.75% $873.4M /gsbc-vs-orrf →
FCBC
First Community Bankshares Inc. (VA)
D+ 57/100 72.8x — 2.4% +1.68% $887.7M /fcbc-vs-orrf →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000826154 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Orrstown Financial Services Inc. (ORRF) reported GAAP revenue of $37.1M (+36.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $27.3M , and +90.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $80.9M, operating cash flow of $74.7M, and free cash flow of $70.5M (+111.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, ORRF closed FY2025 with $5.54B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $37.1M $80.9M $74.7M $70.5M $5.54B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $27.3M $22.1M $35.0M $33.4M $5.44B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $19.5M $35.7M $43.7M $43.7M — —

3. ORRF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ORRF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Orrstown Financial Services Inc. (NASDAQ: ORRF) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 73/100 at a spot price of $45.27 (+3.07% 1D, market cap $863.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ORRF ranks #59 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ORRF compare to MPB and CCBG in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), ORRF carries a Roarable B (73/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.7%. By comparison, MPB (Mid Penn Bancorp) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 15.4x, ROIC 6.9%, cap $860.4M) and CCBG (Capital City Bank Group) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 14.2x, ROIC 11.1%, cap $870.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ORRF leads on earnings multiple (10.8x) while ORRF leads on capital efficiency (13.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ORRF?

Per ORRF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000826154), Orrstown Financial Services Inc. generated $37.1M in revenue (+36.0% YoY), $80.9M in net income, and $70.5M in free cash flow against $5.54B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ORRF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ORRF last traded at $45.27 (+3.07% on volume of 90,547 shares), positioning the stock +7.27% above its 50-day simple moving average ($42.20) and +15.19% above its 200-day simple moving average ($39.30). Across its 52-week range of $32.50 to $45.40, ORRF sits at the 99.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.3% ($42.87 to $47.67).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 73/100 (B) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ORRF — Orrstown Financial Services Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Orrstown Financial Services Inc. (ORRF) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 73/100, corresponding to a B letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $45.27 (+3.07% 1D, market capitalization $863.9M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 13.7%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 8.07%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (14/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (14/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Orrstown Financial Services Inc. (ORRF) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector and Major Banks industry,. Market capitalization is $0.9B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Orrstown Financial Services Inc. (ORRF) reported $37.1M in annual revenue (up from $27.3M in FY2024, +36.0% YoY) and $80.9M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($19.5M revenue, $35.7M net income) through FY2025, ORRF scaled operating cash flow to $74.7M and free cash flow to $70.5M, backed by $5.54B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B • RQD 73/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 14/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $32.50 – $45.40 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 10.8x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Investors should not infer such relationships from the sector or industry labels alone.

  • Key Question #1: Can ORRF sustain or expand its — operating margin and 13.7% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $37.1M and free cash flow of $70.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ORRF's 9.1x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ORRF Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Orrstown Financial Services Inc. (ORRF) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ORRF Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ORRF Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $45.27?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ORRF 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ORRF:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $52.70 (+20.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The RQD rating's insider conviction pillar scores 17 of 20 and the stock trades at a trailing P/E of 10.8 with a forward P/E of 9.1, pe

Long ORRF at $43.92 targeting $52.70. The RQD rating's insider conviction pillar scores 17 of 20 and the stock trades at a trailing P/E of 10.8 with a forward P/E of 9.1, per the sources.. Institutional whale score is 14/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $32.50 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Fair point on 10.8x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Major Banks. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $37.33 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $43.92

Reported operating income is $0.0M in every fiscal year and cash and debt balances are unavailable, leaving the balance-sheet case unve

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on ORRF: Reported operating income is $0.0M in every fiscal year and cash and debt balances are unavailable, leaving the balance-sheet case unverified beyond the 13 of 20 forensic pillar score.. At 10.8x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Major Banks triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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