Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common (ORN) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$8.42 -7.57% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.29

Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common (ORN) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 38/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $370.4M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ORN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common (NYSE: ORN) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $8.42 (-7.57% 1D, market cap $370.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, ORN ranks #357 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ORN compare to LEGO and XTND in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Military/Government/Technical), ORN carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 148.9x, gross margin of 12.4%, and ROIC of 7.1%. By comparison, LEGO (Legato Merger Corp. IV) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $302.8M) and XTND (Xtend AI Robotics Inc.) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $475.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CDNL leads on earnings multiple (33.7x) while CDNL leads on capital efficiency (54.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ORN?
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Per ORN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001402829), Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common generated $852.3M in revenue (+7.0% YoY), $2.5M in net income, and -$10.8M in free cash flow against $414.7M in total assets and $6.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.29 (-1.55%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510038
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D+
Cash (6)Whales (6)SEC (16)Macro (5)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9% Base Target
$18 Bull$8 Base$6 Bear
📬 FREE ORN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ORN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (38/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ORN SCORES 38/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (42% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.05 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+6/20 pts (16% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 12.4% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
46
Grade D$9.12-3.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
43
Grade D$8.82-0.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
41
Grade D$8.78-4.1% Next Q
Current
38
Grade D-$8.42-7.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (46) → D- (38)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ORN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ORN currently carries a cautious 38/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($8.98) and Max Pain ($8.84) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $18.27.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ORN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ORN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
52.530 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.05>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
7 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE3% OF RANGE
L: $8$8.42H: $17
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 6 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 11 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on ORN

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (30)

7.1% ROIC with 12.4% gross margin and -2.91% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (80)

Altman-Z 3.05 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (27)

11/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 5/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ORN
  • ✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Priced at 149x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ORN)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ORN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ORN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -42.41%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $8.30H $9.11L $8.30C $8.42VOL 1.14M
RES: $9.70SUP: $8.04SMA50: $8.98SMA200: $11.82
$18.05$15.35$12.66$9.96$7.26RES $9.70SUP $8.04$8.422026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ORN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ORN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ORN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ORN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ORN)

Industrials Rank #357 of 485 ⚔️ LEGO vs ORN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (ORN vs. LEGO, XTND, PKE, CDNL)

Industry: Military/Government/Technical (43 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common (ORN) ranks #357 by composite RQD confidence (38/100, grade D-) and #315 by equity capitalization ($370.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CDNL leads on earnings valuation at 33.7x trailing P/E, while CDNL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 54.6% ROIC and — gross margin. PKE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 60/100 (C-) compared with ORN at 38/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ORN ACTIVE
Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common
D- 38/100 148.9x 12.4% 7.1% -7.57% $370.4M Benchmark Subject
LEGO
Legato Merger Corp. IV
D+ 53/100 — — — 0.00% $302.8M /lego-vs-orn →
XTND
Xtend AI Robotics Inc.
D 47/100 — — — -7.78% $475.7M /xtnd-vs-orn →
PKE
Park Aerospace Corp.
C- 60/100 — 30.9% 19.0% -2.98% $584.9M /pke-vs-orn →
CDNL
Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc. (Class A)
D- 41/100 33.7x — 54.6% -3.42% $765.5M /cdnl-vs-orn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001402829

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common (ORN) reported GAAP revenue of $852.3M (+7.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $796.4M , and +19.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $2.5M, operating cash flow of $28.1M, and free cash flow of -$10.8M (-663.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, ORN closed FY2025 with $414.7M in total assets against $6.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.05, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $852.3M $2.5M $28.1M -$10.8M $414.7M $6.1M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $796.4M -$1.6M $12.7M -$1.4M $417.3M $22.8M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $711.8M -$17.9M $17.2M $17.2M — —

3. ORN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ORN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common (NYSE: ORN) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $8.42 (-7.57% 1D, market cap $370.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, ORN ranks #357 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ORN compare to LEGO and XTND in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Military/Government/Technical), ORN carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 148.9x, gross margin of 12.4%, and ROIC of 7.1%. By comparison, LEGO (Legato Merger Corp. IV) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $302.8M) and XTND (Xtend AI Robotics Inc.) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $475.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CDNL leads on earnings multiple (33.7x) while CDNL leads on capital efficiency (54.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ORN?

Per ORN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001402829), Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common generated $852.3M in revenue (+7.0% YoY), $2.5M in net income, and -$10.8M in free cash flow against $414.7M in total assets and $6.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ORN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ORN last traded at $8.42 (-7.57% on volume of 691,888 shares), positioning the stock -6.24% below its 50-day simple moving average ($8.98) and -28.76% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.82). Across its 52-week range of $8.10 to $17.40, ORN sits at the 3.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($7.37 to $9.47).

ORN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell ORN stock right now?

Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common (ORN) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 38/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 149x P/E (7% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is ORN's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ORN's 12-month base price target is $7.66 (range $5.97 to $18.27), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 38/100 (D-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ORN — Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:37:35Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ORN scores 38 out of 100 with a letter grade of D-, labeled "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 6 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects ROIC of 7.1% and FCF yield of -2.91%. For an investor, the weak score means the company is not currently converting capital into free cash flow, so near-term valuation support must come from earnings growth rather than cash generation.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 6 / 20. Per the RQD rating, the score reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. The low score indicates limited evidence of sustained institutional conviction.
  • Insider Conviction: 5 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. A low score indicates insider activity is not providing a confirming signal.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 5 / 20. Per the RQD rating, beta is 1.0 and sector sensitivity is weighted here. A beta of 1.0 means the stock is expected to move in line with the broader market, and the low score suggests the regime is not favorable for this profile.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 16 / 20. Per the RQD rating, Altman Z is 3.05, Piotroski F is 7/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.04. This is the strongest pillar and the main reason the company is not scored lower. A prospective investor should recognize that balance sheet strength limits downside risk from insolvency but does not address weak cash generation or the valuation tradeoff.

Valuation tradeoff: per the market data, the stock trades at a P/E (TTM) of 148.9 on EPS (TTM) of 0.06, with an EV/EBITDA of 7.9. The elevated P/E relative to thin earnings means price is highly sensitive to earnings changes. Upside drivers would need to come from sustained margin improvement and cash conversion, which the RQD pillars currently do not confirm.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
$9.11$370.4M148.9138.57.90.060%1.0$8.1 - $17.47.1%

Business

ORN is classified in the Industrials sector, Military/Government/Technical industry, and trades on the NYSE. Per the company profile, it is a NYSE-listed issuer with a market capitalization of $0.4B. Not available in source data: specific products, customer base, and revenue model details beyond the sector and industry classification.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$852.3M$14.6M$2.5MN/A$-10.8M$1.6M$6.1M
FY 2024$796.4M$11.5M$-1.6MN/A$-1.4M$28.3M$22.8M
FY 2023$711.8M$-6.6M$-17.9MN/A$17.2MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue grew from $711.8M (FY 2023) to $852.3M (FY 2025), while operating income moved from $-6.6M to $14.6M. Per the market data, gross margin is 12.4%, operating margin 1.7%, and net margin 0.3%, with ROIC at 7.1%. Per the RQD forensic pillar, Altman Z-Score is 3.05 and Piotroski F-Score is 7/9. Per the financials, cash fell from $28.3M to $1.6M and debt fell from $22.8M to $6.1M over FY 2024–FY 2025, while FCF was negative in both of those years.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts section, the single item is a Stock Titan report with the headline "Revenue rises 14% at Orion Group Holdings (ORN), but nine-month operations consume cash." It is flagged YELLOW with the impact label MARKET WIRE. The catalyst reinforces the pattern in the financials: top-line growth alongside cash consumption. Risk watch item: operating cash burn despite revenue growth. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no proprietary signals are present.

Open Questions

  • What is the composition of the 14% revenue growth referenced in the news wire, and is it sustainable?
  • What drove the negative FCF in FY 2025 and what is the expected cash conversion path?
  • What explains the gap between FY 2025 net income of $2.5M and the 148.9 P/E on EPS of 0.06?
  • What are the specific customers and contracts underlying the Military/Government/Technical classification?
  • Are there any reported insider or institutional transactions that would clarify flow signals?

ORN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common (ORN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ORN Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ORN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $8.42?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ORN 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ORN:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.02 (-12.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ORN (D- • RQD 38/100) a Buy at $9.11?

Welcome to the ORN (Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 38/100 (Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Military/Government/Technical. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (148.9x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $7.38 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $9.11

Pump the brakes on ORN — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ORN, but look at what you are paying: 148.9x trailing P/E with 12.4% gross margins. Unless Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $11.11 (+22.0%)
Spot @ $9.11

ORN cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ORN, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Military/Government/Technical and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $9.11 (52-wk range $8.10 - $17.40), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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