Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / ORLY / earnings

AZO (67) AAP (28) HZO (51) ONEW (31) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±4.8% Move

$88.12 +0.06% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $87.96

O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $71.25B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ORLY Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ORLY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: ORLY) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $88.12 (+0.06% 1D, market cap $71.25B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ORLY ranks #192 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ORLY compare to AZO and AAP in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto & Home Supply Stores), ORLY carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 28.1x, gross margin of 51.6%, and ROIC of 48.0%. By comparison, AZO (AutoZone Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 20.2x, ROIC 55.8%, cap $50.49B) and AAP (Advance Auto Parts Inc.) posts a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E 62.8x, ROIC -1.4%, cap $2.76B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AZO leads on earnings multiple (20.2x) while AZO leads on capital efficiency (55.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ORLY?

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Per ORLY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000898173), O'Reilly Automotive Inc. generated $17.78B in revenue (+6.4% YoY), $2.54B in net income, and $1.59B in free cash flow against $16.54B in total assets and $6.02B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (52% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $87.96 (-0.18%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ORLY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ORLY SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 6.81 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 9% FCF Margin ($1.59B FCF) & 51.6% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (49.6) create a -10 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$86.03+4.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$90.02-0.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$89.82-1.9% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$88.12+1.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (59) → C+ (67)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ORLY Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, ORLY faces multiple-compression risk if 28.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.1% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($87.12) or 200D SMA ($90.47) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($91.69) toward Bear Floor ($71.52).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ORLY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ORLY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 67%NO 33%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±4.8% Swing Band

±$4.23 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

ORLY Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 67/100

Trailing EPS: $3.14 • YoY Revenue Growth: 6.4%

Model Bullish Setup (67/100)Model Risk Weight (33/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$17.78B	$2.54B	$1.59B	51.6%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$16.71B	$2.39B	$2.03B	51.2%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$15.81B	$2.35B	$2.32B	51.6%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating ORLY & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on ORLY
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ORLY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -6.24%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $90.44H $90.44L $88.07C $88.12VOL 12.00M

RES: $92.51SUP: $83.11SMA50: $87.12SMA200: $90.47

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ORLY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ORLY Butterfly Map → + Track ORLY →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

21.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ORLY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ORLY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ORLY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ORLY)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #192 of 1011 ⚔️ AZO vs ORLY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ORLY vs. AZO, AAP, HZO, ONEW)

Industry: Auto & Home Supply Stores (6 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) ranks #192 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #35 by equity capitalization ($71.25B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AZO leads on earnings valuation at 20.2x trailing P/E, while AZO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 55.8% ROIC and 52.6% gross margin. ORLY currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 67/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ORLY ACTIVE O'Reilly Automotive Inc.	C+	67/100	28.1x	51.6%	48.0%	+0.06%	$71.25B	Benchmark Subject
AZO AutoZone Inc.	C+	67/100	20.2x	52.6%	55.8%	+1.05%	$50.49B	/azo-vs-orly →
AAP Advance Auto Parts Inc.	E	28/100	62.8x	43.4%	-1.4%	-1.36%	$2.76B	/aap-vs-orly →
HZO MarineMax Inc. (FL)	D	51/100	—	32.5%	2.4%	+0.32%	$1.16B	/hzo-vs-orly →
ONEW OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A)	E	31/100	—	22.8%	-11.2%	+0.63%	$159.7M	/onew-vs-orly →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000898173

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) reported GAAP revenue of $17.78B (+6.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $16.71B , and +12.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $2.54B, operating cash flow of $2.76B, and free cash flow of $1.59B (-21.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, ORLY closed FY2025 with $16.54B in total assets against $6.02B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.81, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$17.78B	$2.54B	$2.76B	$1.59B	$16.54B	$6.02B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$16.71B	$2.39B	$3.05B	$2.03B	$14.89B	$5.52B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$15.81B	$2.35B	$3.03B	$2.32B	$39.18B	$9.17B

3. ORLY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ORLY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ORLY compare to AZO and AAP in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ORLY?

Where is ORLY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ORLY last traded at $88.12 (+0.06% on volume of 10,386,829 shares), positioning the stock +1.15% above its 50-day simple moving average ($87.12) and -2.60% below its 200-day simple moving average ($90.47). Across its 52-week range of $82.59 to $102.46, ORLY sits at the 27.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.8% ($83.89 to $92.35).

ORLY Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is ORLY's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is ORLY stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±4.8% event move for ORLY, spanning a range between $83.89 and $92.35.

Direct Sub-Reports: ORLY RQD Cockpit ORLY 12M Forecast ORLY Earnings & Move ORLY Dividends & DRIP ORLY Insiders & 13F ORLY Whale Options ORLY Profit Sankey ORLY News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 67/100 (C+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ORLY — O'Reilly Automotive Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:10:28Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ORLY scores 67 and receives a letter grade of C+, with the verdict label "Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout." The five pillars are scored as follows:

Fundamental Cash Engine: 16 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this reflects ROIC of 48% and an FCF yield of 2.24%. The high return on capital is a genuine strength, but the 2.24% FCF yield means the market is pricing the cash stream at a premium, so a prospective investor is paying for growth and quality rather than buying cheap cash flow.
Whale 13F Flow: 10 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, institutional accumulation and options positioning score in the lower-middle range. Because the holders section is unavailable, this pillar cannot be decomposed further.
Insider Conviction: 13 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow earns a moderate score. Underlying trade-level detail is not available in source data.
Macro Regime Fit: 10 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta of 0.92 and sector sensitivity place this pillar in the lower range. A beta below 1.0 implies somewhat lower market-linked volatility, but the score indicates limited macro tailwind in the current regime.
Forensic Balance Sheet: 18 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, Altman Z of 6.81, Piotroski F of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.85 indicate a strong balance-sheet profile and the highest-scoring pillar.

Investor implications: The upside case rests on the cash engine and balance sheet quality. The valuation tradeoff is visible in the market data: P/E (TTM) of 28.1 and forward P/E of 26.1 sit well above the 2.24% FCF yield, so returns depend on continued earnings growth and multiple stability. The weaker pillars (whale flow and macro fit) suggest the rating is a balanced Hold rather than a directional call. The "Watch for Breakout" label indicates the rating frames this as a name to monitor for a change in institutional or macro signals.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
88.07	$71.25B	28.1	26.1	17.3	3.14	0%	0.92	$82.59 - $102.46	48%

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025 (filed 2025-12-31)	$17782.0M	$3460.6M	$2538.2M	N/A	$1593.2M	$193.8M	$6016.9M
FY 2024 (filed 2024-12-31)	$16708.5M	$3251.2M	$2386.7M	N/A	$2026.2M	$130.2M	$5520.9M
FY 2023 (filed 2023-12-31)	$15812.2M	$3186.4M	$2346.6M	N/A	$2322.5M	N/A	$9169.3M

Per the market data, gross margin is 51.6%, operating margin 19.5%, and net margin 14.3%, with ROIC of 48%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 6.81 and the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, with Debt/Equity of 0.85. Reported revenue and operating income rose across the three periods shown, while FCF declined from $2322.5M to $1593.2M. Debt was $9169.3M in FY 2023, $5520.9M in FY 2024, and $6016.9M in FY 2025.

Open Questions

What is the revenue and EPS trajectory beyond FY 2025, given that EPS is reported as N/A in every period?
Why did FCF decline from $2322.5M (FY 2023) to $1593.2M (FY 2025) while net income rose, and what drove the change in working capital or capital expenditure?
What is the actual composition of institutional ownership and recent 13F changes, given that holders data is unavailable?
What is the specific earnings date and consensus expectation underlying the RBC price-target catalyst?
How does the cash balance of $193.8M reconcile with the debt load of $6016.9M in FY 2025, and what is the debt maturity profile?

ORLY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ORLY Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 5h ago

O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) vs. AZO and GPC: Why Auto Parts Stocks Are No Longer Safe Havens

Yahoo Finance report covering O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Trefis • 8h ago

O’Reilly Automotive Earnings Ahead: What Past Reactions Say About The Stock

Trefis report covering O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Investing.com • 11h ago

RBC Capital raises O’Reilly Automotive stock price target on demand

Investing.com report covering O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 14h ago

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) Stock Price, News, Quote & History

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 17h ago

O'Reilly Automotive: High-Quality Compounder At A Reasonable Valuation (NASDAQ:ORLY)

Seeking Alpha report covering O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 20h ago

O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Stock Could Be 25% Overvalued On Cash Flow

Yahoo Finance report covering O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 23h ago

What to Expect From O’Reilly Automotive’s Q3 2026 Earnings Report

Yahoo Finance report covering O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

What is O’Reilly Automotive’s (ORLY) Economic Moat, and is it Widening or Narrowing?

Yahoo Finance report covering O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ORLY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $88.12?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ORLY 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $95.12 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ORLY (C+ • RQD 67/100) a Buy at $88.07?

Welcome to the ORLY (O'Reilly Automotive Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 67/100 (Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout) in Auto & Home Supply Stores. Bulls point to capital efficiency (48.0% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $67.81 (-23.0%)

Spot @ $88.07

Pump the brakes on ORLY — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ORLY, but look at what you are paying: 28.1x trailing P/E with 51.6% gross margins. Unless O'Reilly Automotive Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $110.97 (+26.0%)

Spot @ $88.07

ORLY cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ORLY, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Auto & Home Supply Stores and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $88.07 (52-wk range $82.59 - $102.46), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.