What is OPXS's 12-month stock price target?

Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $9.83 (+5.4% from $9.33), with a bull-case target of $18.15 and a bear-case floor of $7.65.

Stock Ratings / Technology / OPXS / forecast

OPTX (42) RELL (54) DCM (43) MSAI (19) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Q: Is OPXS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates OPXS B- (Buy — BUY) with an RQD Confidence score of 70/100.

$9.33 +2.08% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.39

Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (29.2% gross margin, 30% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $63.6M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on OPXS Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is OPXS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: OPXS) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $9.33 (+2.08% 1D, market cap $63.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 20/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 19/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, OPXS ranks #78 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does OPXS compare to OPTX and RELL in the Technology sector?

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Within the Technology sector (Electronic Components), OPXS carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.5x, gross margin of 29.2%, and ROIC of 29.8%. By comparison, OPTX (Syntec Optics Holdings Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.8%, cap $253.4M) and RELL (Richardson Electronics Ltd.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 48.8x, ROIC 4.1%, cap $293.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, OPXS leads on earnings multiple (12.5x) while OPXS leads on capital efficiency (29.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OPXS?

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Per OPXS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-28, CIK 0001397016), Optex Systems Holdings Inc. generated $41.3M in revenue (+21.6% YoY), $5.1M in net income, and $6.4M in free cash flow against $30.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (29.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.39 (+0.61%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 20/20 (A+) • 15.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B- · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OPXS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (70/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY OPXS SCORES 70/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+20/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 15.6% FCF Margin ($6.4M FCF) & 29.2% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+19/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade A-$9.92-0.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B+$9.85-4.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B$9.42-1% Next Q

Current

Grade B-$9.33+6.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: A- (78) → B- (70)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the OPXS Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 70/100 (B-) score, OPXS faces multiple-compression risk if 12.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 26.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($10.08) or 200D SMA ($11.85) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($9.83) toward Bear Floor ($7.65).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OPXS• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “OPXS Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 70%NO 30%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your OPXS Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $9.33: 1071.8 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $7.65

$8,199

$-1,801 (-18.0%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $9.83

$10,536

+$536 (+5.4%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $18.15

$19,453

+$9,453 (+94.5%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (34 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 23● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	OUTPERFORM	$10	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$17	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$9	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (OPXS Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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OPXS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.77%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-03O $9.23H $9.33L $9.14C $9.33VOL 8.6K

RES: $9.85SUP: $9.07SMA50: $10.08SMA200: $11.85

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OPXS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 OPXS Butterfly Map → + Track OPXS →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

3.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +21.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OPXS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OPXS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OPXS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OPXS)

Technology Rank #78 of 715 ⚔️ OPTX vs OPXS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (OPXS vs. OPTX, RELL, DCM, MSAI)

Industry: Electronic Components (21 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) ranks #78 by composite RQD confidence (70/100, grade B-) and #549 by equity capitalization ($63.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OPXS leads on earnings valuation at 12.5x trailing P/E, while OPXS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 29.8% ROIC and 29.2% gross margin. OPXS currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 70/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
OPXS ACTIVE Optex Systems Holdings Inc.	B-	70/100	12.5x	29.2%	29.8%	+2.08%	$63.6M	Benchmark Subject
OPTX Syntec Optics Holdings Inc. (Class A)	D-	42/100	—	23.3%	-2.8%	-16.22%	$253.4M	/optx-vs-opxs →
RELL Richardson Electronics Ltd.	D+	54/100	48.8x	31.2%	4.1%	-1.22%	$293.7M	/rell-vs-opxs →
DCM DeFi Capital Markets Inc.	D-	43/100	—	16.6%	-35.0%	+8.80%	$9.3M	/dcm-vs-opxs →
MSAI MultiSensor AI Holdings Inc.	E	19/100	—	—	-35.0%	-2.15%	$7.2M	/msai-vs-opxs →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-28 • CIK 0001397016 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-28), Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) reported GAAP revenue of $41.3M (+21.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $34.0M , and +61.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $5.1M, operating cash flow of $6.9M, and free cash flow of $6.4M (+485.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, OPXS closed FY2025 with $30.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 10.17, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-28	$41.3M	$5.1M	$6.9M	$6.4M	$30.2M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-29	$34.0M	$3.8M	$1.8M	$1.1M	$24.8M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-10-01	$25.7M	$2.3M	-$296.0K	-$296.0K	—	—

3. OPXS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OPXS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does OPXS compare to OPTX and RELL in the Technology sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OPXS?

Where is OPXS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OPXS last traded at $9.33 (+2.08% on volume of 31,590 shares), positioning the stock -7.44% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.08) and -21.27% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.85). Across its 52-week range of $9.04 to $17.29, OPXS sits at the 3.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 31.3 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.1% ($8.76 to $9.90).

Direct Sub-Reports: OPXS RQD Cockpit OPXS 12M Forecast OPXS Earnings & Move OPXS Dividends & DRIP OPXS Insiders & 13F OPXS Whale Options OPXS Profit Sankey OPXS News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 70/100 (B-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

OPXS — Optex Systems Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-09-28

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 70/100, corresponding to a B- letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $9.33 (+2.08% 1D, market capitalization $63.6M).

Fundamental Cash Engine (20/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 29.8%, gross margin of 29.2%, operating margin of 17.3%, and free cash flow yield of 10.02%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (19/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (18/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 10.17, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Optex Systems Holdings Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Technology sector, Electronic Components industry (per the company profile). Margin data indicates a gross margin of 29.2%, operating margin of 17.3%, and net margin of 12.5% (per the market data).

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-09-28), Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) reported $41.3M in annual revenue (up from $34.0M in FY2024, +21.6% YoY) and $5.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($25.7M revenue, $2.3M net income) through FY2025, OPXS scaled operating cash flow to $6.9M and free cash flow to $6.4M, backed by $30.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (B- • RQD 70/100): Strong cash generator (29.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 20/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $9.04 – $17.29 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 12.5x trailing P/E and 7.7x EV/EBITDA against 17.3% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies: — Sector correlation data: — Second-order bottlenecks: — The main thing to watch is whether the 1.

Key Question #1: Can OPXS sustain or expand its 17.3% operating margin and 29.8% ROIC against Electronic Components peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $41.3M and free cash flow of $6.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is OPXS's 10.5x forward P/E multiple to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

OPXS Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to OPXS Debate Forum (3) ↓

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo! Finance Canada • 21h ago

OPXS Falls 24% in Three Months: Should You Buy the Dip or Wait?

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Optex Systems (NASDAQ:OPXS) Shares Down 3.3% - Time to Sell?

MarketBeat report covering Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance UK • 1d ago

Optex Systems Holdings, Inc (OPXS) Seasonal returns chart

Yahoo Finance UK report covering Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🔴 RISK WATCH Stock Traders Daily • 1d ago

Discipline and Rules-Based Execution in OPXS Response

Stock Traders Daily report covering Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🔴 RISK WATCH https://www.siam.in/ • 1d ago

Optex (OPXS) Sinks -1.41% as Volume Spikes on Downside 2026-10-17 - Up Down Volume

https://www.siam.in/ report covering Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Space Exploration, Dell, KLA, AXIL Brands and Optex

Yahoo Finance report covering Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Top Research Reports for SpaceX, Dell & KLA Corp.

Yahoo Finance report covering Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 1d ago

Tel-Instrument Electronics Corp. (TIKK) Seasonal Returns Chart - Yahoo Finance

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

OPXS Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $9.33?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON OPXS 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $11.43 (+25.1%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Cash generation is strong, with ROIC at 29.8% and FCF yield at 10.02%, alongside a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9.

Don't sleep on OPXS's setup in Technology. Cash generation is strong, with ROIC at 29.8% and FCF yield at 10.02%, alongside a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (70/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Fair point on 12.5x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Electronic Components. If gross margin (29.2%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $7.40 (-19.0%)

Spot @ $9.14

The stock is down 24% over three months and shows a whale 13F flow pillar score of only 3 out of 20.

I respect the product at Optex Systems Holdings Inc., but the stock at $9.14 is a different story. The stock is down 24% over three months and shows a whale 13F flow pillar score of only 3 out of 20.. FCF yield is 10.02% and RQD sits at 70/100 (B-) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?