ROARABLE
Today ⌘ Pro Terminal Big Ideas 🎲 Predictions Screener πŸ¦‹ Butterfly 8 Analysts πŸ›οΈ Policy 🎬 Video β˜… Watchlist 🎲 Prediction Markets πŸ“Š RQD Track Record πŸ“… Next Catalysts πŸ›‘οΈ Overlap & Crash X-Ray πŸ“° Live Wire πŸ‹ 13F Whales πŸ›οΈ Congress & CEO Buys πŸ† $100K Arena ⌘ Pro Terminal πŸ“ Methodology & Corrections
Stock Ratings / Health Care / NVS / financials
AZN (62) MRK (75) ABBV (81) ABT (77) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Novartis AG (NVS) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$160.79 -0.19% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $160.43

Novartis AG (NVS) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) β†’
ROARABLE C+ β€’ HOLD / WATCH Cap $307.40B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NVS Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NVS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-02, Novartis AG (NYSE: NVS) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $160.79 (-0.19% 1D, market cap $307.40B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, NVS ranks #113 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NVS compare to AZN and MRK in the Health Care sector?
β–Ό

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), NVS carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, AZN (AstraZeneca PLC) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $270.45B) and MRK (Merck & Company Inc.) posts a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 19.8x, ROIC 20.7%, cap $361.02B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MRK leads on earnings multiple (19.8x) while ABBV leads on capital efficiency (29.0% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NVS?
β–Ό

For Novartis AG (NVS), key quantitative strengths include Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. and Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs., while primary risk factors center on Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $160.44 (-0.22%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) β€’ 15.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 56.0% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH β€’ C+
025507510066
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C Β· Rk B-
Cash (11)Whales (15)SEC (16)Macro (12)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target
$197 Bull$167 Base$130 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE NVS RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NVS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±3.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (66/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY NVS SCORES 66/100 (C+) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.74 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 8/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (Β±3.9% realized swing band)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 13.9% operating margin leave 9 pts on the table

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
58
Grade C$142.41+7.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
61
Grade C$153.64+2.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
63
Grade C+$156.86+2.5% Next Q
Current
66
Grade C+$160.79+1.4% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C (58) β†’ C+ (66)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NVS Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, NVS faces multiple-compression risk if 32.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($148.51) or 200D SMA ($151.98) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($166.58) toward Bear Floor ($129.93).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NVSβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œNVS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 66%NO 34%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL β€’ Trailing 12 Months

How NVS Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$6.79B (15.8% FCF Margin)
Revenue$43.04BGross Profit $22.38B (52%)Cost of Sales $20.66BOp Profit $5.98B (13.9%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $16.40BNet Profit$4.69B (10.9%)Tax/Other $1.29B
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NVS)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of NVS's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) β†’$100K Arena
NVS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +11.18%πŸ“ HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $156.1H $161.1L $156.1C $160.8VOL 2.24M
RES: $164.0SUP: $134.2SMA50: $148.5SMA200: $152.0
$166.4$158.4$150.5$142.5$134.5RES $164.0SUP $134.2$160.82026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NVS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ NVS Butterfly Map β†’ + Track NVS β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
25.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +15.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NVS today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NVS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NVS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NVS)

Health Care Rank #113 of 1016 βš”οΈ AZN vs NVS Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (NVS vs. AZN, MRK, ABBV, ABT)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Novartis AG (NVS) ranks #113 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #7 by equity capitalization ($307.40B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MRK leads on earnings valuation at 19.8x trailing P/E, while ABBV leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 29.0% ROIC and 70.2% gross margin. ABBV currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 81/100 (A-) compared with NVS at 66/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NVS ACTIVE
Novartis AG
C+ 66/100 32.8x β€” 9.9% -0.19% $307.40B Benchmark Subject
AZN
AstraZeneca PLC
C 62/100 32.8x β€” 9.9% +7.02% $270.45B /azn-vs-nvs β†’
MRK
Merck & Company Inc.
B 75/100 19.8x 74.8% 20.7% +2.18% $361.02B /mrk-vs-nvs β†’
ABBV
AbbVie Inc.
A- 81/100 121.6x 70.2% 29.0% +1.41% $513.86B /abbv-vs-nvs β†’
ABT
Abbott Laboratories
B+ 77/100 27.7x 56.4% 11.9% +1.56% $180.95B /abt-vs-nvs β†’

2. NVS Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Novartis AG (NVS) operates in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (Health Care) with an equity capitalization of $307.40B, trailing P/E of 32.8x, forward P/E of 27.6x, and EV/EBITDA of 21.0x. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of β€”, operating margin of 13.9%, net profit margin of 10.9%, ROIC of 9.9%, and free cash flow yield of 2.21%, alongside an Altman Z-Score of 3.74 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.

3. NVS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NVS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Novartis AG (NYSE: NVS) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $160.79 (-0.19% 1D, market cap $307.40B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, NVS ranks #113 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NVS compare to AZN and MRK in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), NVS carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, AZN (AstraZeneca PLC) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $270.45B) and MRK (Merck & Company Inc.) posts a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 19.8x, ROIC 20.7%, cap $361.02B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MRK leads on earnings multiple (19.8x) while ABBV leads on capital efficiency (29.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NVS?

For Novartis AG (NVS), key quantitative strengths include Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. and Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs., while primary risk factors center on Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NVS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NVS last traded at $160.79 (-0.19% on volume of 3,152,901 shares), positioning the stock +8.27% above its 50-day simple moving average ($148.51) and +5.80% above its 200-day simple moving average ($151.98). Across its 52-week range of $122.86 to $170.46, NVS sits at the 79.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 69.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±3.9% ($154.52 to $167.06).

NVS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

How profitable is Novartis AG (NVS)?

In Trailing 12 Months, NVS converted $43.0B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 13.9% operating margin, and $6.8B in free cash flow (15.8% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: NVS RQD Cockpit NVS 12M Forecast NVS Earnings & Move NVS Dividends & DRIP NVS Insiders & 13F NVS Whale Options NVS Profit Sankey NVS News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 66/100 (C+) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

NVS β€” Novartis AG: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T14:07:43Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, NVS scores 66 out of 100, a letter grade of C+, with the verdict "Roarable Hold β€” Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout." Across the five pillars:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 11 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 9.9% and an FCF yield of 2.21%. Investor implication: returns on capital are positive but modest, and the cash yield is thin relative to the stock price, so the valuation case depends more on growth expectations than on current cash generation.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 15 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. The underlying 13F and options detail is not itemized in the source data, so the score cannot be traced to specific holders. Investor implication: institutional interest appears constructive but is a moderate contributor to the overall score.
  • Insider Conviction: 12 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The individual transactions are not provided in the source data. Investor implication: insider signal is neutral-to-mildly-positive and does not by itself drive the verdict.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 12 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects beta of 1.05 and sector sensitivity. Investor implication: the stock tends to move roughly in line with the broad market, so it offers little defensive differentiation or outsized high-beta exposure.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 16 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects Altman Z of 3.74, Piotroski F of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.39. Investor implication: this is the strongest pillar, indicating a financially sound balance sheet with low leverage and strong fundamental health signals.

The overall profile is a balanced, mid-range rating: strong balance-sheet quality offsets thin cash yield and a valuation that the market prices at a premium. The "Watch for Breakout" language in the verdict label signals that the rating is near the threshold where a shift in pillar scores could change the outlook.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
161.1$307.4B32.827.6214.90%1.05$122.86 - $170.469.9%

Open Questions

  • What is the reported revenue, operating income, net income, EPS, free cash flow, cash, and debt trend across recent periods? The financial statements section is empty.
  • What is the composition of the $1.9B Avidity hit referenced in the news feed, and how does it affect forward earnings expectations?
  • Which institutional holders and insiders account for the accumulation and cluster flows that drive the Whale and Insider pillar scores?
  • What analyst consensus rating and price targets exist, and how do they compare to the $161.1 price?
  • What drives the 27.6 forward P/E versus the 32.8 trailing P/E, and what earnings growth is implied by that compression?

NVS Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Novartis AG (NVS) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to NVS Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NVS Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $160.79?

πŸ‚ 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NVS 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NVS:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk βš–οΈ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $173.99 (+8.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is NVS (C+ β€’ RQD 66/100) a Buy at $161.10?

Welcome to the NVS (Novartis AG) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 66/100 (Roarable Hold β€” Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout) in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (32.8x trailing P/E). Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $120.83 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $161.10

Pump the brakes on NVS β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on NVS, but look at what you are paying: 32.8x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Novartis AG expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $206.21 (+28.0%)
Spot @ $161.10

NVS cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on NVS, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $161.10 (52-wk range $122.86 - $170.46), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

LIVE TAPE SPY $755.72 -0.38% QQQ $690.49 -1.44% DIA $517.13 -0.37% IWM $279.33 +0.96% NVDA $204.64 -4.22% AAPL $344.63 -1.23% MSFT $521.91 -1.55% TSLA $399.81 -0.86% PLTR $184.11 -6.27% SOFI $16.76 -4.83% IBIT $43.36 -0.94% GLD $355.78 -1.34%