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Stock Ratings / Health Care / NPCE
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Neuropace Inc. (NPCE) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$12.30 -5.46% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.16

Neuropace Inc. (NPCE) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 21/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $422.2M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NPCE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Neuropace Inc. (NASDAQ: NPCE) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 21/100 at a spot price of $12.30 (-5.46% 1D, market cap $422.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, NPCE ranks #967 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NPCE compare to CARL and SI in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Dental Instruments), NPCE carries a Roarable E (21/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 77.2%, and ROIC of -23.0%. By comparison, CARL (Carlsmed Inc.) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $408.2M) and SI (Shoulder Innovations Inc.) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -16.1%, cap $398.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NPCE leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while CERS leads on capital efficiency (-15.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NPCE?
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Per NPCE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001528287), Neuropace Inc. generated $100.0M in revenue (+25.1% YoY), -$21.5M in net income, and -$11.3M in free cash flow against $105.6M in total assets and $58.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.16 (-1.17%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (21/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-11.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510021
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (5)Whales (4)SEC (6)Macro (3)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-16.7% Base Target
$21 Bull$10 Base$8 Bear
📬 FREE NPCE RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NPCE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (21/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NPCE SCORES 21/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+6/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+5/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 77.2% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
29
Grade E$12.68+6.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
26
Grade E$13.51-3.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
24
Grade E$13.02-5.5% Next Q
Current
21
Grade E$12.30-11.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (29) → E (21)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NPCE Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NPCE currently carries a cautious 21/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($13.62) and Max Pain ($12.92) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $20.58.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NPCE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NPCE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 21%NO 79%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
41.730 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)
0.20>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)
5 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE30% OF RANGE
L: $9$12.30H: $20
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 5 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 7 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: ERQD 9 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on NPCE

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (25)

-23.0% ROIC with 77.2% gross margin and -2.54% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (30)

Altman-Z 0.20 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (18)

7/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 3/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like NPCE
  • ✓Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NPCE)

  • ✓Walkthrough of NPCE's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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NPCE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -27.22%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $13.01H $13.01L $12.30C $12.30VOL 80.9K
RES: $13.15SUP: $11.70SMA50: $13.62SMA200: $14.94
$20.12$17.96$15.79$13.62$11.46RES $13.15SUP $11.70$12.302026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NPCE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NPCE Butterfly Map → + Track NPCE →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +25.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NPCE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NPCE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NPCE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NPCE)

Health Care Rank #967 of 1015 ⚔️ CARL vs NPCE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (NPCE vs. CARL, SI, BWAY, CERS)

Industry: Medical/Dental Instruments (120 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Neuropace Inc. (NPCE) ranks #967 by composite RQD confidence (21/100, grade E) and #465 by equity capitalization ($422.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NPCE leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while CERS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -15.5% ROIC and — gross margin. SI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 44/100 (D) compared with NPCE at 21/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NPCE ACTIVE
Neuropace Inc.
E 21/100 — 77.2% -23.0% -5.46% $422.2M Benchmark Subject
CARL
Carlsmed Inc.
D- 38/100 — 75.3% -35.0% -5.20% $408.2M /carl-vs-npce →
SI
Shoulder Innovations Inc.
D 44/100 — 76.5% -16.1% -6.41% $398.3M /si-vs-npce →
BWAY
BrainsWay Ltd.
D 44/100 — — — -4.78% $455.9M /bway-vs-npce →
CERS
Cerus Corporation
E 27/100 — — -15.5% -6.56% $459.5M /cers-vs-npce →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001528287 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Neuropace Inc. (NPCE) reported GAAP revenue of $100.0M (+25.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $79.9M , and +52.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$21.5M, operating cash flow of -$11.0M, and free cash flow of -$11.3M (+37.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, NPCE closed FY2025 with $105.6M in total assets against $58.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $100.0M -$21.5M -$11.0M -$11.3M $105.6M $58.9M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $79.9M -$27.1M -$17.9M -$18.3M $94.6M $59.5M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $65.4M -$33.0M -$19.7M -$19.7M — —

3. NPCE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NPCE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Neuropace Inc. (NASDAQ: NPCE) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 21/100 at a spot price of $12.30 (-5.46% 1D, market cap $422.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, NPCE ranks #967 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NPCE compare to CARL and SI in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Dental Instruments), NPCE carries a Roarable E (21/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 77.2%, and ROIC of -23.0%. By comparison, CARL (Carlsmed Inc.) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $408.2M) and SI (Shoulder Innovations Inc.) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -16.1%, cap $398.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NPCE leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while CERS leads on capital efficiency (-15.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NPCE?

Per NPCE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001528287), Neuropace Inc. generated $100.0M in revenue (+25.1% YoY), -$21.5M in net income, and -$11.3M in free cash flow against $105.6M in total assets and $58.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NPCE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NPCE last traded at $12.30 (-5.46% on volume of 80,912 shares), positioning the stock -9.69% below its 50-day simple moving average ($13.62) and -17.67% below its 200-day simple moving average ($14.94). Across its 52-week range of $9.22 to $19.60, NPCE sits at the 29.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.1% ($11.18 to $13.42).

Direct Sub-Reports: NPCE RQD Cockpit NPCE 12M Forecast NPCE Earnings & Move NPCE Dividends & DRIP NPCE Insiders & 13F NPCE Whale Options NPCE Profit Sankey NPCE News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 21/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NPCE — Neuropace Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Neuropace Inc. (NPCE) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 21/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $12.30 (-5.46% 1D, market capitalization $422.2M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (5/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -23.0%, gross margin of 77.2%, operating margin of -16.3%, and free cash flow yield of -2.54%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (3/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (6/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.20, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 3.09x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector and Medical/Dental Instruments industry, with a market capitalization of $0.4B. Per the market data, the company reports a gross margin of 77.2%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Neuropace Inc. (NPCE) reported $100.0M in annual revenue (up from $79.9M in FY2024, +25.1% YoY) and -$21.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($65.4M revenue, -$33.0M net income) through FY2025, NPCE scaled operating cash flow to -$11.0M and free cash flow to -$11.3M, backed by $105.6M in total assets against $58.9M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 21/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -2.54% and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 5/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $9.22 – $19.60 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -16.3% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

A prospective investor should note that the leverage indicated by Debt/Equity of 3.

  • Key Question #1: Can NPCE sustain or expand its -16.3% operating margin and -23.0% ROIC against Medical/Dental Instruments peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $100.0M and free cash flow of -$11.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $58.9M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is NPCE's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

NPCE Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Neuropace Inc. (NPCE) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NPCE Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NPCE Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $12.30?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NPCE 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NPCE:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $15.38 (+25.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue grew from $65.4M in FY 2023 to $100.0M in FY 2025 while the operating loss narrowed from -$27.2M to -$16.3M.

Don't sleep on NPCE's setup in Health Care. Revenue grew from $65.4M in FY 2023 to $100.0M in FY 2025 while the operating loss narrowed from -$27.2M to -$16.3M.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (21/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@MidwestValue Agree on the RQD 21/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $12.30 and keeping dry powder in case we test $11.44.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $9.84 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $12.30

ROIC of -23%, FCF yield of -2.54%, Altman Z of 0.2, and Debt/Equity of 3.09 together signal forensic and cash-generation risk.

I respect the product at Neuropace Inc., but the stock at $12.30 is a different story. ROIC of -23%, FCF yield of -2.54%, Altman Z of 0.2, and Debt/Equity of 3.09 together signal forensic and cash-generation risk.. FCF yield is -2.54% and RQD sits at 21/100 (E) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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