RISK WATCHInvesting.com • 7h ago
Nomura ADR earnings missed, revenue fell short of estimatesInvesting.com report covering Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NMR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Why NMR Stock slipped -0.95% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$9.38 -0.95% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.35
Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NMR) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID
Cap $27.48B
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Is NMR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NYSE: NMR) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $9.38 (-0.95% 1D, market cap $27.48B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, NMR ranks #528 in composite RQD confidence.
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🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does NMR compare to TW and RJF in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service), NMR carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, TW (Tradeweb Markets Inc.) holds a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 34.2x, ROIC 13.6%, cap $27.82B) and RJF (Raymond James Financial Inc.) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 14.5x, ROIC 5.9%, cap $31.03B). Among the 5-stock peer group, RJF leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while CBOE leads on capital efficiency (26.6% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NMR?
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For Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NMR), key quantitative strengths include Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. and sector rank #528 in Financials, while primary risk factors center on Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.35 (-0.36%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 15.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NMR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NMR SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (27% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+12/20 pts (21% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 60% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)
Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (50.8) create a -11 pt regime headwind
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C+$9.58-4.7% Next Q
64
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$9.13-0.2% Next Q
61
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$9.11+3% Next Q
59
CurrentGrade D+$9.38-0.4% Hist 90D α
56
Trajectory: C+ (64) → D+ (56)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NMR Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, NMR faces multiple-compression risk if 32.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($9.83) or 200D SMA ($9.00) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($9.30) toward Bear Floor ($7.25).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NMR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NMR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why NMR Stock slipped -0.95% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NMR) slipped -0.95% to $9.38, trading at 62% of its 52-week range ($6.88 – $10.94). Stretched risk/reward at 33x P/E (10% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 62% of its 52-week range ($6.88 – $10.94) with RSI-14 at 50.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.3% around $9.38 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $607.2M annual free cash flow.
Live NMR Headlines & Catalysts
RISK WATCHInvesting.com South Africa • 10h ago
Nomura ADR earnings missed, revenue fell short of estimates By Investing.comInvesting.com South Africa report covering Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NMR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREInvesting.com Nigeria • 16h ago
Form 4 NOMURA HOLDINGS INC: Masahiro Ishizuka (Director) For: 23 OctoberInvesting.com Nigeria report covering Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NMR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREInvesting.com India • 19h ago
Earnings call transcript: Nomura Holdings posts strong H1 2026 profit, shares riseInvesting.com India report covering Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NMR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 2d ago
BOJ speeds up ETF sales, potentially boosting funding for Takaichi’s plansInvesting.com -- The Bank of Japan’s decision to accelerate sales of its exchange-traded fund holdings could generate additional government revenue, potentially helping Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi finance her ambitious
MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 3d ago
Nomura Holdings, Inc. 2027 Q2 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation2026-10-30. The following slide deck was published by Nomura Holdings, Inc.
CATALYSTYahoo • 3d ago
Nomura (TSE:8604) Q2 Earnings Highlight Margin Pressure Beneath Revenue GrowthThe market has already cooled on Nomura Holdings. The stock is roughly flat over the past week and down over the last three months, even after the latest numbers hit the tape. Q2 2027 earnings landed with group net reven
CATALYSTYahoo • 4d ago
NMR Q2 Earnings Call Highlights Wealth Growth and Cost PressuresNomura's record Wealth Management recurring revenues and rising bond demand bolster growth, while Wholesale costs remain a hurdle to its profitability goals.
MARKET WIREBenzinga • 4d ago
Here's How Much $100 Invested In Nomura Holdings 5 Years Ago Would Be Worth TodayNomura Holdings (NYSE:NMR) has outperformed the market over the past 5 years by 5.59% on an annualized basis producing an average annual return of 16.36%. Currently, Nomura Holdings has a market capitalization of $26.65
CATALYSTSeekingAlpha • 4d ago
Nomura: A 'Buy' On Q2 Outperformance And Progress Toward Long-Term TargetNomura Holdings delivered a 14% YoY EPS increase, driven by strong Wealth Management and Investment Banking performances. I rate NMR stock as Buy. Click to know more.
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NMR)
- ✓Walkthrough of NMR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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NMR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +20.72%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $9.12H $9.47L $9.12C $9.38VOL 2.63M
RES: $11.73SUP: $8.85SMA50: $9.83SMA200: $9.00
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
NMR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
25.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. 0.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NMR today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NMR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NMR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NMR)
Financials Rank #528 of 1096
⚔️ TW vs NMR Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (NMR vs. TW, RJF, LPLA, CBOE)
Industry: Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service (64 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NMR) ranks #528 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #100 by equity capitalization ($27.48B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, RJF leads on earnings valuation at 14.5x trailing P/E, while CBOE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 26.6% ROIC and — gross margin. CBOE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 78/100 (B+) compared with NMR at 56/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NMR
ACTIVE
Nomura Holdings Inc ADR | D+ | 56/100 | 32.8x | — | 9.9% | -0.95% | $27.48B | Benchmark Subject |
| TW Tradeweb Markets Inc. | B+ | 76/100 | 34.2x | — | 13.6% | +3.08% | $27.82B | /tw-vs-nmr → |
| RJF Raymond James Financial Inc. | C+ | 69/100 | 14.5x | — | 5.9% | -2.52% | $31.03B | /rjf-vs-nmr → |
| LPLA LPL Financial Holdings Inc. | D- | 38/100 | 25.5x | — | 8.5% | +1.50% | $22.01B | /lpla-vs-nmr → |
| CBOE Cboe Global Markets Inc. | B+ | 78/100 | 31.9x | — | 26.6% | +6.77% | $35.14B | /cboe-vs-nmr → |
2. NMR Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics
TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOTNomura Holdings Inc ADR (NMR) operates in Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service (Financials) with an equity capitalization of $27.48B, trailing P/E of 32.8x, forward P/E of 30.5x, and EV/EBITDA of 21.0x. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of 13.9%, net profit margin of 10.9%, ROIC of 9.9%, and free cash flow yield of 2.21%, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9.
3. NMR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs NMR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-02, Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NYSE: NMR) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $9.38 (-0.95% 1D, market cap $27.48B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, NMR ranks #528 in composite RQD confidence.
How does NMR compare to TW and RJF in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service), NMR carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, TW (Tradeweb Markets Inc.) holds a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 34.2x, ROIC 13.6%, cap $27.82B) and RJF (Raymond James Financial Inc.) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 14.5x, ROIC 5.9%, cap $31.03B). Among the 5-stock peer group, RJF leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while CBOE leads on capital efficiency (26.6% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NMR?
For Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NMR), key quantitative strengths include Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. and sector rank #528 in Financials, while primary risk factors center on Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is NMR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
NMR last traded at $9.38 (-0.95% on volume of 2,482,261 shares), positioning the stock -4.58% below its 50-day simple moving average ($9.83) and +4.22% above its 200-day simple moving average ($9.00). Across its 52-week range of $6.88 to $10.94, NMR sits at the 61.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.3% ($8.98 to $9.78).
NMR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is NMR stock moving today?
Why NMR Stock slipped -0.95% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 33x P/E (10% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 56/100 (D+)
✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED
NMR — Nomura Holdings Inc ADR: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T14:09:22Z
Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Per the Roarable RQD rating, NMR scores 56 out of 100, a letter grade of D+, with the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 11 / 20 (ROIC 9.9%; FCF yield 2.21%), Whale 13F Flow at 9 / 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 12 / 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 9 / 20 (Beta 1.15; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 15 / 20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 7/9; Debt/Equity 0.5).
For a prospective investor, the rating indicates that the cash-generation pillar and the macro-sensitivity pillar are the weakest contributors, with the balance-sheet pillar as the strongest. A 2.21% FCF yield alongside a 30.5 forward P/E frames a valuation tradeoff: the market is pricing in substantial future earnings relative to current free cash flow. The Beta of 1.15 implies above-market sensitivity to broad market moves per the market data section. Recent news flow carries RED-flagged earnings-miss headlines, which align with the lower fundamental and macro pillar scores. The verdict is a rating-system output and is presented here for analytical context, not as a recommendation.
Snapshot
Business
Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NMR) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service industry, per the profile section. Not available in source data for product lines, customer segments, or revenue model detail beyond sector and industry classification.
Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis
Per the recent news and catalysts section, the most recent headlines report that Nomura ADR earnings missed and revenue fell short of estimates; these are flagged RED with a RISK WATCH impact label across multiple regional Investing.com syndications. A Form 4 filing by director Masahiro Ishizuka (filing reference dated 23 October) is flagged YELLOW with a MARKET WIRE label. An earnings call transcript headline describes strong H1 2026 profit with shares rising, flagged YELLOW with a MARKET WIRE label. The headlines are syndicated versions of overlapping stories, so they should be read as a small set of distinct events rather than independent confirmations.
Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.
Open Questions
- What are the reported revenue, operating income, and net income figures for recent periods, and how do they compare with the earnings-miss headlines?
- What are the analyst consensus rating and price targets for NMR?
- What institutional (13F) and insider (Form 4, Congressional PTR) holdings and trade sizes underlie the Whale and Insider pillar scores?
- What is the company's regional revenue and business-line mix, and how does its exposure to the H1 2026 profit results relate to the reported miss?
- What is the basis for the 0% gross margin and 0% dividend yield reported in the market data?
NMR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NMR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
🔴 RISK WATCH Investing.com • 7h ago
Nomura ADR earnings missed, revenue fell short of estimates Investing.com report covering Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NMR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🔴 RISK WATCH Investing.com South Africa • 10h ago
Nomura ADR earnings missed, revenue fell short of estimates By Investing.com Investing.com South Africa report covering Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NMR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com Nigeria • 16h ago
Form 4 NOMURA HOLDINGS INC: Masahiro Ishizuka (Director) For: 23 October Investing.com Nigeria report covering Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NMR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com India • 19h ago
Earnings call transcript: Nomura Holdings posts strong H1 2026 profit, shares rise Investing.com India report covering Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NMR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 2d ago
BOJ speeds up ETF sales, potentially boosting funding for Takaichi’s plans Investing.com -- The Bank of Japan’s decision to accelerate sales of its exchange-traded fund holdings could generate additional government revenue, potentially helping Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi finance her ambitious
🟡 MARKET WIRE SeekingAlpha • 3d ago
Nomura Holdings, Inc. 2027 Q2 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation 2026-10-30. The following slide deck was published by Nomura Holdings, Inc.
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 3d ago
Nomura (TSE:8604) Q2 Earnings Highlight Margin Pressure Beneath Revenue Growth The market has already cooled on Nomura Holdings. The stock is roughly flat over the past week and down over the last three months, even after the latest numbers hit the tape. Q2 2027 earnings landed with group net reven
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 4d ago
NMR Q2 Earnings Call Highlights Wealth Growth and Cost Pressures Nomura's record Wealth Management recurring revenues and rising bond demand bolster growth, while Wholesale costs remain a hurdle to its profitability goals.
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE
3 Active Posts & Replies
NMR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $9.38?
🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NMR 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST
🎯 Target: $10.23 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate 🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is NMR (D+ • RQD 56/100) a Buy at $9.47?
Welcome to the NMR (Nomura Holdings Inc ADR) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 56/100 (Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim) in Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (32.8x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
BE BearTrap_Alert Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH
🎯 Target: $7.10 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $9.47 Pump the brakes on NMR — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on NMR, but look at what you are paying: 32.8x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Nomura Holdings Inc ADR expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH
🎯 Target: $11.17 (+18.0%)
Spot @ $9.47 NMR cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on NMR, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $9.47 (52-wk range $6.88 - $10.94), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.