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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$11.39 +2.06% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.41

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $551.2M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NCDL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NYSE: NCDL) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $11.39 (+2.06% 1D, market cap $551.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, NCDL ranks #199 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NCDL compare to ISOU and APXC in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Diversified Equities), NCDL carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 7.5%. By comparison, ISOU (IsoEnergy Ltd.) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $565.6M) and APXC (Apex Critical Metals Corp.) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $487.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NCDL leads on earnings multiple (8.4x) while NCDL leads on capital efficiency (7.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NCDL?
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Per NCDL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001737924), Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. generated $862.9M in revenue (-4.2% YoY), $65.6M in net income, and $194.2M in free cash flow against $2.05B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.41 (+0.18%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 22.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510053
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D
Cash (15)Whales (7)SEC (13)Macro (6)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.3% Base Target
$16 Bull$11 Base$9 Bear
📬 FREE NCDL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NCDL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NCDL SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 22.5% FCF Margin ($194.2M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (54.1) create a -14 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
45
Grade D$10.77-3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
48
Grade D$10.45+3.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
50
Grade C-$10.81+5.4% Next Q
Current
53
Grade D+$11.39-0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (45) → D+ (53)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NCDL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NCDL currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.49) and Max Pain ($11.96) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $15.82.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NCDL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NCDL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 53%NO 47%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±5.3%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (NCDL)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for NCDL.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NCDL)

  • ✓Walkthrough of NCDL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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NCDL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.99%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $11.10H $11.39L $11.10C $11.39VOL 502.3K
RES: $12.38SUP: $9.97SMA50: $11.49SMA200: $12.73
$15.26$13.92$12.58$11.24$9.89RES $12.38SUP $9.97$11.392026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NCDL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NCDL Butterfly Map → + Track NCDL →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-4.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -4.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NCDL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NCDL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NCDL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NCDL)

Industrials Rank #199 of 486 ⚔️ ISOU vs NCDL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (NCDL vs. ISOU, APXC, BMM, AUXX)

Industry: Diversified Equities (43 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) ranks #199 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #291 by equity capitalization ($551.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NCDL leads on earnings valuation at 8.4x trailing P/E, while NCDL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.5% ROIC and — gross margin. NCDL currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 53/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NCDL ACTIVE
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.
D+ 53/100 8.4x — 7.5% +2.06% $551.2M Benchmark Subject
ISOU
IsoEnergy Ltd.
D 45/100 — — — -6.80% $565.6M /isou-vs-ncdl →
APXC
Apex Critical Metals Corp.
D+ 53/100 — — — +3.70% $487.1M /apxc-vs-ncdl →
BMM
Blue Moon Metals Inc.
D- 43/100 — — — +2.94% $405.3M /bmm-vs-ncdl →
AUXX
Gold X2 Mining Inc.
D- 41/100 — — — -0.26% $385.5M /auxx-vs-ncdl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001737924 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) reported GAAP revenue of $862.9M (-4.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $900.4M , and -38.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $65.6M, operating cash flow of $194.2M, and free cash flow of $194.2M (+165.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, NCDL closed FY2025 with $2.05B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $862.9M $65.6M $194.2M $194.2M $2.05B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $900.4M $116.3M -$297.2M -$297.2M $2.14B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.40B $75.9M -$369.5M -$369.5M — —

3. NCDL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NCDL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NYSE: NCDL) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $11.39 (+2.06% 1D, market cap $551.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, NCDL ranks #199 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NCDL compare to ISOU and APXC in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Diversified Equities), NCDL carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 7.5%. By comparison, ISOU (IsoEnergy Ltd.) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $565.6M) and APXC (Apex Critical Metals Corp.) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $487.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NCDL leads on earnings multiple (8.4x) while NCDL leads on capital efficiency (7.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NCDL?

Per NCDL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001737924), Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. generated $862.9M in revenue (-4.2% YoY), $65.6M in net income, and $194.2M in free cash flow against $2.05B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NCDL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NCDL last traded at $11.39 (+2.06% on volume of 269,345 shares), positioning the stock -0.87% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.49) and -10.53% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.73). Across its 52-week range of $10.31 to $15.07, NCDL sits at the 22.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.3% ($10.79 to $11.99).

Direct Sub-Reports: NCDL RQD Cockpit NCDL 12M Forecast NCDL Earnings & Move NCDL Dividends & DRIP NCDL Insiders & 13F NCDL Whale Options NCDL Profit Sankey NCDL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 53/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NCDL — Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 53/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $11.39 (+2.06% 1D, market capitalization $551.2M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 7.5%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) is a NYSE-listed issuer..

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) reported $862.9M in annual revenue (up from $900.4M in FY2024, -4.2% YoY) and $65.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.40B revenue, $75.9M net income) through FY2025, NCDL scaled operating cash flow to $194.2M and free cash flow to $194.2M, backed by $2.05B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 53/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $10.31 – $15.07 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 8.4x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

There are no upstream or downstream links, no sector-correlation links, and no proprietary signals recorded. Upstream/downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and 2nd-order bottlenecks are — The graph's sector and industry labels (Industrials, Diversified Equities) are the only context provided.

  • Key Question #1: Can NCDL sustain or expand its — operating margin and 7.5% ROIC against Diversified Equities peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $862.9M and free cash flow of $194.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is NCDL's 7.8x forward P/E multiple to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

NCDL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NCDL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NCDL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $11.39?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NCDL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NCDL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $14.40 (+29.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The stock trades at 8.4x trailing and 7.8x forward earnings with a 7.5% ROIC and FY 2025 FCF of $194.2M.

The street is overcomplicating Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL). The stock trades at 8.4x trailing and 7.8x forward earnings with a 7.5% ROIC and FY 2025 FCF of $194.2M.. With an RQD score of 53/100 (D+) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $12.05.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

@RedlineAuditor Shorting a 7/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $11.16 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Industrials.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $9.37 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $11.16

The RQD rating is 50/D with a 0% FCF yield and 0% dividend yield, and the 13F pillar scores only 5/20.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short NCDL above $11.16. The RQD rating is 50/D with a 0% FCF yield and 0% dividend yield, and the 13F pillar scores only 5/20.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20) and FCF yield (0.0%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $15.07.

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