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Marten Transport Ltd. (MRTN) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$12.02 +2.56% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.05

Marten Transport Ltd. (MRTN) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 47/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $957.1M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MRTN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Marten Transport Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRTN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $12.02 (+2.56% 1D, market cap $957.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, MRTN ranks #256 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MRTN compare to HTLD and CVLG in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Trucking Freight/Courier Services), MRTN carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 55.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 2.5%. By comparison, HTLD (Heartland Express Inc.) holds a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -5.1%, cap $790.3M) and CVLG (Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E 101.0x, ROIC 0.4%, cap $784.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MRTN leads on earnings multiple (55.1x) while MRTN leads on capital efficiency (2.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MRTN?
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Per MRTN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000799167), Marten Transport Ltd. generated $64.2M in revenue (-31.0% YoY), $17.4M in net income, and $93.5M in free cash flow against $949.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.05 (+0.27%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 145.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510047
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Cash (12)Whales (3)SEC (13)Macro (8)CEO (11)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.9% Base Target
$19 Bull$11 Base$9 Bear
📬 FREE MRTN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MRTN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (47/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MRTN SCORES 47/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 145.7% FCF Margin ($93.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
55
Grade C$12.62-0.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
52
Grade C-$12.52-4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
50
Grade C-$12.02+0% Next Q
Current
47
Grade D$12.02-5.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (55) → D (47)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MRTN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MRTN currently carries a cautious 47/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($13.13) and Max Pain ($12.62) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $19.40.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MRTN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MRTN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 47%NO 53%Trade / Inspect Odds →
SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

MRTN Smart-Money Thermometer: BALANCED INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →
▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (MRTN)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on MRTN. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MRTN)

  • ✓Walkthrough of MRTN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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MRTN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -17.50%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $11.76H $12.02L $11.72C $12.02VOL 546.3K
RES: $16.60SUP: $10.47SMA50: $13.13SMA200: $14.48
$19.01$16.82$14.63$12.45$10.26RES $16.60SUP $10.47$12.022026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MRTN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MRTN Butterfly Map → + Track MRTN →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
39.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -31.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MRTN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MRTN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MRTN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MRTN)

Industrials Rank #256 of 486 ⚔️ HTLD vs MRTN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (MRTN vs. HTLD, CVLG, ULH, WERN)

Industry: Trucking Freight/Courier Services (19 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Marten Transport Ltd. (MRTN) ranks #256 by composite RQD confidence (47/100, grade D) and #256 by equity capitalization ($957.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MRTN leads on earnings valuation at 55.1x trailing P/E, while MRTN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 2.5% ROIC and — gross margin. MRTN currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 47/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MRTN ACTIVE
Marten Transport Ltd.
D 47/100 55.1x — 2.5% +2.56% $957.1M Benchmark Subject
HTLD
Heartland Express Inc.
E 28/100 — — -5.1% +3.33% $790.3M /htld-vs-mrtn →
CVLG
Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A)
D- 36/100 101.0x — 0.4% +8.25% $784.7M /cvlg-vs-mrtn →
ULH
Universal Logistics Holdings Inc.
D- 43/100 — — -4.2% +26.34% $595.6M /ulh-vs-mrtn →
WERN
Werner Enterprises Inc.
E 28/100 — — 0.4% +3.32% $1.66B /wern-vs-mrtn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000799167 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Marten Transport Ltd. (MRTN) reported GAAP revenue of $64.2M (-31.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $93.0M , and -94.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $17.4M, operating cash flow of $93.5M, and free cash flow of $93.5M (-30.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, MRTN closed FY2025 with $949.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $64.2M $17.4M $93.5M $93.5M $949.8M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $93.0M $26.9M $134.8M $134.8M $968.8M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.13B $70.4M $164.4M $164.4M — —

3. MRTN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MRTN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Marten Transport Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRTN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $12.02 (+2.56% 1D, market cap $957.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, MRTN ranks #256 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MRTN compare to HTLD and CVLG in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Trucking Freight/Courier Services), MRTN carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 55.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 2.5%. By comparison, HTLD (Heartland Express Inc.) holds a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -5.1%, cap $790.3M) and CVLG (Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E 101.0x, ROIC 0.4%, cap $784.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MRTN leads on earnings multiple (55.1x) while MRTN leads on capital efficiency (2.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MRTN?

Per MRTN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000799167), Marten Transport Ltd. generated $64.2M in revenue (-31.0% YoY), $17.4M in net income, and $93.5M in free cash flow against $949.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MRTN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MRTN last traded at $12.02 (+2.56% on volume of 586,390 shares), positioning the stock -8.45% below its 50-day simple moving average ($13.13) and -16.99% below its 200-day simple moving average ($14.48). Across its 52-week range of $9.35 to $18.48, MRTN sits at the 29.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 31.6 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.0% ($11.30 to $12.74).

Direct Sub-Reports: MRTN RQD Cockpit MRTN 12M Forecast MRTN Earnings & Move MRTN Dividends & DRIP MRTN Insiders & 13F MRTN Whale Options MRTN Profit Sankey MRTN News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 47/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MRTN — Marten Transport Ltd.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Marten Transport Ltd. (MRTN) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 47/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $12.02 (+2.56% 1D, market capitalization $957.1M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 2.5%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 9.73%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (11/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Marten Transport Ltd. (MRTN) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, specifically the Trucking Freight/Courier Services industry. The market capitalization is $1.0B. Per the financials, the company reports operating and net income, and the source data identifies it as a trucking freight and courier services business.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Marten Transport Ltd. (MRTN) reported $64.2M in annual revenue (up from $93.0M in FY2024, -31.0% YoY) and $17.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.13B revenue, $70.4M net income) through FY2025, MRTN scaled operating cash flow to $93.5M and free cash flow to $93.5M, backed by $949.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 47/100): Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 9.73% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $9.35 – $18.48 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 55.1x trailing P/E and 40.0x EV/EBITDA against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Trucking Freight/Courier Services (Industrials), MRTN carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can MRTN sustain or expand its — operating margin and 2.5% ROIC against Trucking Freight/Courier Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $64.2M and free cash flow of $93.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MRTN's 51.2x forward P/E multiple to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

MRTN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Marten Transport Ltd. (MRTN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MRTN Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MRTN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $12.02?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MRTN 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MRTN:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $14.30 (+22.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Free cash flow yield of 9.73% plus a 2.04% dividend yield offers cash-based income support while the stock trades near the lower half o

Picked up a starter position in MRTN in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $11.72. Free cash flow yield of 9.73% plus a 2.04% dividend yield offers cash-based income support while the stock trades near the lower half of its $9.35 to $18.48 52-week range.. Trading inside a $9.35–$18.48 52-week range with 9.73% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Trucking Freight/Courier Services multiples expand this quarter.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@CashFlowKing Agree on the RQD 47/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $11.72 and keeping dry powder in case we test $10.90.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $9.73 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $11.72

ROIC of 2.5%, a trailing P/E of 55.1, and an RQD grade of D with a sell verdict signal weak capital efficiency and an earnings multiple

ROIC of 2.5%, a trailing P/E of 55.1, and an RQD grade of D with a sell verdict signal weak capital efficiency and an earnings multiple well above what the reported profit base supports.. Look at the math on MRTN: paying 55.1x trailing P/E for 2.5% ROIC and 0.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Trucking Freight/Courier Services demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $10.31 before getting long.

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