Moderna Inc. (MRNA) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$221.72 -0.47% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $221.11

Moderna Inc. (MRNA) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 60/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- β€’ HOLD / WATCH Cap $88.93B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MRNA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-02, Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNA) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $221.72 (-0.47% 1D, market cap $88.93B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 20/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, MRNA ranks #172 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MRNA compare to ARGX and RVMD in the Health Care sector?
β–Ό

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), MRNA carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 55.3%, and ROIC of -34.1%. By comparison, ARGX (argenx SE) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $55.72B) and RVMD (Revolution Medicines Inc.) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -28.6%, cap $40.78B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GILD leads on earnings multiple (24.1x) while GILD leads on capital efficiency (21.0% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MRNA?
β–Ό

Per MRNA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001682852), Moderna Inc. generated $1.94B in revenue (-39.9% YoY), -$2.82B in net income, and -$2.06B in free cash flow against $12.34B in total assets and $590.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $221.12 (-0.27%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) β€’ 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 53.5% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH β€’ C-
025507510060
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ Β· Rk C
Cash (10)Whales (20)SEC (14)Macro (11)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.9% Base Target
$267 Bull$224 Base$175 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE MRNA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MRNA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (60/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY MRNA SCORES 60/100 (C-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+20/20 pts (33% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (Β±12.5% realized swing band)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 15.07 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 5/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
52
Grade C-$216.25+11.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
55
Grade C$242.08-14.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
57
Grade C$207.97+6.6% Next Q
Current
60
Grade C-$221.72+0.4% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C- (52) β†’ C- (60)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MRNA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 60/100 (C-) score, MRNA faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 52.8% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($185.72) or 200D SMA ($88.40) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($223.72) toward Bear Floor ($174.50).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MRNAβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œMRNA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±12.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (MRNA)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for MRNA.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating MRNA & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • βœ“Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on MRNA
  • βœ“How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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MRNA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +368.75%β–² ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $214.2H $222.8L $214.2C $221.7VOL 10.83M
RES: $270.4SUP: $66.22SMA50: $185.7SMA200: $88.40
$269.8$206.4$142.9$79.52$16.10RES $270.4SUP $66.22$221.72026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MRNA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
24.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -39.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MRNA today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MRNA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MRNA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MRNA)

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (MRNA vs. ARGX, RVMD, GILD, BIIB)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Moderna Inc. (MRNA) ranks #172 by composite RQD confidence (60/100, grade C-) and #27 by equity capitalization ($88.93B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GILD leads on earnings valuation at 24.1x trailing P/E, while GILD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 21.0% ROIC and 78.8% gross margin. GILD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 82/100 (A-) compared with MRNA at 60/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MRNA ACTIVE
Moderna Inc.
C- 60/100 β€” 55.3% -34.1% -0.47% $88.93B Benchmark Subject
ARGX
argenx SE
C 63/100 32.8x β€” 9.9% -0.56% $55.72B /argx-vs-mrna β†’
RVMD
Revolution Medicines Inc.
D+ 55/100 β€” β€” -28.6% +0.55% $40.78B /rvmd-vs-mrna β†’
GILD
Gilead Sciences Inc.
A- 82/100 24.1x 78.8% 21.0% +3.06% $205.35B /gild-vs-mrna β†’
BIIB
Biogen Inc.
B 74/100 28.5x 75.7% 6.4% +1.59% $36.90B /biib-vs-mrna β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001682852

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Moderna Inc. (MRNA) reported GAAP revenue of $1.94B (-39.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.24B , and -71.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$2.82B, operating cash flow of -$1.87B, and free cash flow of -$2.06B (+49.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, MRNA closed FY2025 with $12.34B in total assets against $590.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 15.07, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.94B -$2.82B -$1.87B -$2.06B $12.34B $590.0M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $3.24B -$3.56B -$3.00B -$4.05B $14.14B $0
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $6.85B -$4.71B -$3.12B -$3.43B $48.91B $11.45B

3. MRNA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MRNA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNA) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $221.72 (-0.47% 1D, market cap $88.93B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 20/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, MRNA ranks #172 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MRNA compare to ARGX and RVMD in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), MRNA carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 55.3%, and ROIC of -34.1%. By comparison, ARGX (argenx SE) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $55.72B) and RVMD (Revolution Medicines Inc.) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -28.6%, cap $40.78B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GILD leads on earnings multiple (24.1x) while GILD leads on capital efficiency (21.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MRNA?

Per MRNA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001682852), Moderna Inc. generated $1.94B in revenue (-39.9% YoY), -$2.82B in net income, and -$2.06B in free cash flow against $12.34B in total assets and $590.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MRNA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MRNA last traded at $221.72 (-0.47% on volume of 9,009,244 shares), positioning the stock +19.38% above its 50-day simple moving average ($185.72) and +150.81% above its 200-day simple moving average ($88.40). Across its 52-week range of $22.28 to $254.48, MRNA sits at the 85.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±12.5% ($194.01 to $249.43).

MRNA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

What is MRNA's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for MRNA.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 60/100 (C-) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

MRNA β€” Moderna Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:10:03Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, MRNA scores 60 out of 100, graded C- and labeled "Roarable Hold β€” Cautious Neutral." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 10 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is -34.1% and FCF yield is -2.32%. This is the weakest pillar relative to its weight, indicating the business is not currently generating cash returns on invested capital.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 20 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning at the maximum score. Institutional interest is a notable positive, though the source data does not itemize the underlying holdings.
  • Insider Conviction: 5 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow scores low, a weak signal from insider activity.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 11 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 1.1 with moderate sector sensitivity, so the stock is expected to move somewhat more than the market.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 14 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, Altman Z is 15.07, Piotroski F is 5/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.07. The balance sheet is comparatively sound relative to the earnings profile.

Investor implications: the upside case rests mainly on institutional conviction and the balance sheet cushion, which give the company runway. The valuation tradeoff is that per the market data, EPS (TTM) is -7.07 and the operating margin is -60%, so the current price of 222.76 is being supported by forward expectations (forward P/E of 32) rather than trailing cash generation. Investors should weigh the gap between a strong balance sheet and negative operating cash flow as the central tension in this rating.

Business

Moderna Inc. (MRNA) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) industry, per the company profile. Per the company profile, the market capitalization is $88.9B. The source data does not describe specific products, customer segments, or revenue model beyond the sector and industry classification, and the profile does not detail how the company earns revenue. Per the SEC financials, reported revenue declined from $6848.0M in FY 2023 to $1944.0M in FY 2025.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$1944.0M$-3074.0M$-2822.0MN/A$-2065.0M$2595.0M$590.0M
FY 2024$3236.0M$-3945.0M$-3561.0MN/A$-4055.0M$1927.0M$0.0M
FY 2023$6848.0M$-4239.0M$-4714.0MN/A$-3426.2MN/A$11445.8M

Per the SEC financials, every reported period shows operating and net losses, and free cash flow was negative in each year. Per the market data, the gross margin is 55.3%, while operating and net margins are both -60%, and ROIC is -34.1%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 15.07 and the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9. Per the Roarable RQD rating, Debt/Equity is 0.07, and per the SEC financials, debt fell from $11445.8M in FY 2023 to $590.0M in FY 2025 while cash rose to $2595.0M.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the news wire, the headlines are dominated by a planned national cancer vaccine effort, which one report describes as a four-year high for the stock. Several reports cover a sharp decline tied to cancer-vaccine data shared on social media, and an analyst fair value revision on the cancer vaccine. One report attributes a sharp rally to a cancer vaccine breakthrough, and another notes a gain of over $4B in a week. Per the news wire tags, the two most recent items are flagged as CATALYST with GREEN signals, while the rest are MARKET WIRE with YELLOW signals. Risk watch items per the news wire include the volatility around clinical data disclosure. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is NONE and no proprietary signals are present.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply chain is NONE, and there are no butterfly links or proprietary signals. Not available in source data for upstream or downstream dependencies. Based on the sector classification alone, a prospective investor should watch how cancer-vaccine news flows through the broader biotechnology group, since the news wire shows the stock reacting sharply to clinical-data headlines. The source data does not establish specific 2nd-order bottlenecks.

Open Questions

  • What is the trailing P/E and EV/EBITDA, which the source data lists as unavailable, and how do they compare with peers?
  • What is the revenue mix and the product or pipeline driving the cancer-vaccine catalyst, and what is its timing?
  • Why does free cash flow remain negative despite a debt reduction from $11445.8M to $590.0M, and what is the cash burn runway?
  • Which institutions drive the 20/20 whale flow score, and are the holders accumulating or distributing?
  • What is the analyst consensus and price target range, which the source data does not provide?

MRNA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Moderna Inc. (MRNA) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to MRNA Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MRNA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $221.72?

πŸ‚ 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MRNA 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MRNA:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk βš–οΈ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $240.58 (+8.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is MRNA (C- β€’ RQD 60/100) a Buy at $222.76?

Welcome to the MRNA (Moderna Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 60/100 (Roarable Hold β€” Cautious Neutral) in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances). Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

FO ForensicBear Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $167.07 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $222.76

Pump the brakes on MRNA β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on MRNA, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 55.3% gross margins. Unless Moderna Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $285.13 (+28.0%)
Spot @ $222.76

MRNA cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on MRNA, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $222.76 (52-wk range $22.28 - $254.48), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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