Stock Ratings / Health Care / MPLT / options

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MapLight Therapeutics Inc. (MPLT) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$7.58 -1.81% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.54

MapLight Therapeutics Inc. (MPLT) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 35/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $500.1M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MPLT Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MPLT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, MapLight Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: MPLT) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $7.58 (-1.81% 1D, market cap $500.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, MPLT ranks #677 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MPLT compare to OVID and CTMX in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), MPLT carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -32.4%. By comparison, OVID (Ovid Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -28.5%, cap $500.0M) and CTMX (CytomX Therapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (14/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -20.5%, cap $499.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MPLT leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while CTMX leads on capital efficiency (-20.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MPLT?

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Per MPLT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001770069), MapLight Therapeutics Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$161.2M in net income, and -$138.6M in free cash flow against $479.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.54 (-0.52%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MPLT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (35/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MPLT SCORES 35/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+9/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 33.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$8.60-7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$8.00-4.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$7.66-1% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$7.58-8.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (43) → D- (35)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MPLT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MPLT currently carries a cautious 35/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($10.38) and Max Pain ($7.96) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $42.45.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MPLT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MPLT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 35%NO 65%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±12.5%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (MPLT)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for MPLT.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MPLT)

✓Walkthrough of MPLT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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MPLT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -73.51%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-11-02O $7.98H $7.98L $7.58C $7.58VOL 156.7K

RES: $4.60SUP: $6.50SMA50: $10.38SMA200: $20.46

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MPLT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MPLT Butterfly Map → + Track MPLT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MPLT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MPLT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MPLT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MPLT)

Health Care Rank #677 of 1016 ⚔️ OVID vs MPLT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (MPLT vs. OVID, CTMX, PHAT, EOLS)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MapLight Therapeutics Inc. (MPLT) ranks #677 by composite RQD confidence (35/100, grade D-) and #451 by equity capitalization ($500.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MPLT leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while CTMX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -20.5% ROIC and — gross margin. OVID currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 40/100 (D-) compared with MPLT at 35/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MPLT ACTIVE MapLight Therapeutics Inc.	D-	35/100	—	—	-32.4%	-1.81%	$500.1M	Benchmark Subject
OVID Ovid Therapeutics Inc.	D-	40/100	—	—	-28.5%	-0.78%	$500.0M	/ovid-vs-mplt →
CTMX CytomX Therapeutics Inc.	E	14/100	—	—	-20.5%	+2.18%	$499.0M	/ctmx-vs-mplt →
PHAT Phathom Pharmaceuticals Inc.	E	34/100	—	87.1%	-35.0%	-7.72%	$503.2M	/phat-vs-mplt →
EOLS Evolus Inc.	E	27/100	—	66.3%	-35.0%	-2.26%	$496.7M	/eols-vs-mplt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001770069

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MapLight Therapeutics Inc. (MPLT) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$161.2M, operating cash flow of -$138.1M, and free cash flow of -$138.6M (-74.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, MPLT closed FY2025 with $479.5M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$161.2M	-$138.1M	-$138.6M	$479.5M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$77.6M	-$78.8M	-$79.6M	$136.9M	—

3. MPLT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MPLT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does MPLT compare to OVID and CTMX in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MPLT?

Where is MPLT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MPLT last traded at $7.58 (-1.81% on volume of 394,997 shares), positioning the stock -26.97% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.38) and -62.95% below its 200-day simple moving average ($20.46). Across its 52-week range of $7.44 to $40.43, MPLT sits at the 0.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 33.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($6.63 to $8.53).

MPLT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is MPLT's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for MPLT.

Direct Sub-Reports: MPLT RQD Cockpit MPLT 12M Forecast MPLT Earnings & Move MPLT Dividends & DRIP MPLT Insiders & 13F MPLT Whale Options MPLT Profit Sankey MPLT News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 35/100 (D-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

MPLT — MapLight Therapeutics Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:35:46Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, MPLT scores 35 out of 100 and receives a letter grade of D-, with the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 (ROIC -32.4%; FCF yield 0%), Whale 13F Flow at 3/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 5/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 9/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 10/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 2/9; Debt/Equity 0.5).

For a prospective investor, the weakest pillars are the cash engine and institutional flow, which together indicate that the reported losses and negative free cash flow are not yet offset by a demonstrated earnings path or sponsorship from large holders. The forensic balance sheet pillar is the strongest of the five but still sits at half its maximum, reflecting a Piotroski F-Score of 2 out of 9. The Beta of 1.0 means the stock is rated as moving in line with the broader market, so macro regime fit does little to differentiate it. Any upside case would rest on catalysts rather than on current cash generation, and the balance of evidence in this rating points toward elevated risk to the equity relative to its reported fundamentals.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025 (filed 2025-12-31)	$0.0M	$-169.1M	$-161.2M	N/A	$-138.6M	$46.7M	N/A
FY 2024 (filed 2024-12-31)	$0.0M	$-82.9M	$-77.6M	N/A	$-79.6M	$38.3M	N/A

Per the SEC financials, operating and net losses widened from FY 2024 to FY 2025, and free cash flow was negative in both periods. Gross, operating, and net margins are each reported as 0% in the market data. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is -32.4% and the Altman Z-Score is 2.5, while the Piotroski F-Score is 2 out of 9 and Debt/Equity is 0.5. Cash rose from $38.3M to $46.7M over the period, but the source data does not establish the funding sources behind that change.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, the items are as follows:

A MarketBeat report (YELLOW) on analyst views of the stock.
A TradingView estimates report (YELLOW) and a Seeking Alpha item (YELLOW) reporting that a MapLight co-founder is a joint winner of the 2026 Nobel Prize in Medicine.
A Stock Titan item (YELLOW) reporting that an officer proposes selling 15,355 shares solely for vesting taxes.
A MarketBeat item flagged RED under RISK WATCH reporting a 5.5% stock decline.
A MarketBeat item (YELLOW) reporting the stock reached a new 52-week low.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. The only RED-flagged item is the decline report, and the 52-week low report is consistent with the market data range of $7.44 - $40.43.

Open Questions

What are the company's products, pipeline stage, and revenue model, given that reported revenue is $0.0M in both periods?
How does the FY 2025 cash balance of $46.7M compare with the $-138.6M free cash flow burn, and what financing sources or timelines apply?
What is the amount and terms of any debt, since the Debt field is N/A for both periods despite a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5?
What is the company's EPS, P/E, and EV/EBITDA, which are all unavailable in the source data?
What is the institutional and insider ownership profile, given that holders data is NONE?

MPLT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for MapLight Therapeutics Inc. (MPLT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MPLT Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 7h ago

MapLight Therapeutics, Inc. Estimates – NASDAQ:MPLT

TradingView report covering MapLight Therapeutics Inc. (MPLT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 10h ago

Maplight Therapeutics, Inc. (MPLT) - What Are Analysts Thinking About This Stock?

MarketBeat report covering MapLight Therapeutics Inc. (MPLT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 13h ago

MapLight co-founder is joint winner of 2026 Nobel Prize in Medicine

Seeking Alpha report covering MapLight Therapeutics Inc. (MPLT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 16h ago

A MapLight Therapeutics (Nasdaq: MPLT) officer proposes selling 15,355 shares solely for vesting taxes.

Stock Titan report covering MapLight Therapeutics Inc. (MPLT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH MarketBeat • 19h ago

Maplight Therapeutics (NASDAQ:MPLT) Stock Falls 5.5% - Here's Why

MarketBeat report covering MapLight Therapeutics Inc. (MPLT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 22h ago

Maplight Therapeutics (NASDAQ:MPLT) Reaches New 52-Week Low - Here's Why

MarketBeat report covering MapLight Therapeutics Inc. (MPLT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Maplight Therapeutics (NASDAQ:MPLT) Insider Sells 11,513 Shares of Company Stock

MarketBeat report covering MapLight Therapeutics Inc. (MPLT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Maplight Therapeutics (NASDAQ:MPLT) CEO Christopher Kroeger Sells 73,691 Shares of Company Stock

MarketBeat report covering MapLight Therapeutics Inc. (MPLT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MPLT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $7.58?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MPLT 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $6.79 (-12.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is MPLT (D- • RQD 35/100) a Buy at $7.72?

Welcome to the MPLT (MapLight Therapeutics Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 35/100 (Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $5.94 (-23.1%)

Spot @ $7.72

Pump the brakes on MPLT — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on MPLT, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless MapLight Therapeutics Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

CA CashFlowKing Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $9.73 (+26.0%)

Spot @ $7.72

MPLT cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on MPLT, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $7.72 (52-wk range $7.44 - $40.43), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.