Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / MOV / forecast

FOSL (38) ELA (55) VSTS (53) CENTA (73) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Movado Group Inc. (MOV) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$31.21 -1.42% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $31.07

Movado Group Inc. (MOV) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $706.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MOV Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MOV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Movado Group Inc. (NYSE: MOV) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $31.21 (-1.42% 1D, market cap $706.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MOV ranks #281 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MOV compare to FOSL and ELA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Consumer Specialties), MOV carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 26.6x, gross margin of 54.2%, and ROIC of 8.5%. By comparison, FOSL (Fossil Group Inc.) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -7.2%, cap $405.1M) and ELA (Envela Corporation) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 20.2x, ROIC 20.7%, cap $295.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CENTA leads on earnings multiple (14.9x) while ELA leads on capital efficiency (20.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MOV?

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Per MOV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0000072573), Movado Group Inc. generated $671.3M in revenue (+2.7% YoY), $26.6M in net income, and $53.4M in free cash flow against $742.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (54% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $31.07 (-0.45%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MOV)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MOV SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.35 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 8% FCF Margin ($53.4M FCF) & 54.2% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$32.06+2.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$32.79-5.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$30.96+0.8% Next Q

Current

Grade C$31.21+0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (71) → C (63)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MOV Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, MOV faces multiple-compression risk if 26.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 51.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($32.97) or 200D SMA ($30.96) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($31.91) toward Bear Floor ($24.89).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MOV• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MOV Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 30, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your MOV Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $31.21: 320.4 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $24.89

$7,975

$-2,025 (-20.2%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $31.91

$10,224

+$224 (+2.2%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $42.52

$13,624

+$3,624 (+36.2%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$33	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$40	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$28	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (MOV Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MOV // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +17.77%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-02O $31.11H $31.66L $31.11C $31.21VOL 134.5K

RES: $32.49SUP: $30.16SMA50: $32.97SMA200: $30.96

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MOV Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MOV Butterfly Map → + Track MOV →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

20.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +2.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MOV today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MOV. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MOV today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MOV)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #281 of 1011 ⚔️ FOSL vs MOV Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MOV vs. FOSL, ELA, VSTS, CENTA)

Industry: Consumer Specialties (11 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Movado Group Inc. (MOV) ranks #281 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #551 by equity capitalization ($706.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CENTA leads on earnings valuation at 14.9x trailing P/E, while ELA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 20.7% ROIC and 22.4% gross margin. CENTA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with MOV at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MOV ACTIVE Movado Group Inc.	C	63/100	26.6x	54.2%	8.5%	-1.42%	$706.4M	Benchmark Subject
FOSL Fossil Group Inc.	D-	38/100	—	56.1%	-7.2%	-3.07%	$405.1M	/fosl-vs-mov →
ELA Envela Corporation	D+	55/100	20.2x	22.4%	20.7%	-1.58%	$295.5M	/ela-vs-mov →
VSTS Vestis Corporation	D+	53/100	—	—	2.6%	-2.50%	$2.01B	/vsts-vs-mov →
CENTA Central Garden & Pet Company Nonvoting (Class A)	B	73/100	14.9x	31.9%	9.7%	+0.85%	$2.43B	/centa-vs-mov →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-31 • CIK 0000072573

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31), Movado Group Inc. (MOV) reported GAAP revenue of $671.3M (+2.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $653.4M , and +1.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $26.6M, operating cash flow of $57.9M, and free cash flow of $53.4M (+664.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, MOV closed FY2025 with $742.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.35, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-01-31	$671.3M	$26.6M	$57.9M	$53.4M	$742.6M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2025-01-31	$653.4M	$18.4M	-$1.5M	-$9.5M	$729.2M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2024-01-31	$664.4M	$41.3M	$76.8M	$76.8M	—	—

3. MOV Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MOV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does MOV compare to FOSL and ELA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MOV?

Where is MOV trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MOV last traded at $31.21 (-1.42% on volume of 123,452 shares), positioning the stock -5.34% below its 50-day simple moving average ($32.97) and +0.81% above its 200-day simple moving average ($30.96). Across its 52-week range of $17.61 to $40.50, MOV sits at the 59.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.1% ($29.62 to $32.80).

MOV Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is MOV's 12-month stock price target?

Movado Group Inc. (MOV) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $31.91 (+2.2% from $31.21), with a bull-case target of $42.52 and a bear-case floor of $24.89.

Is MOV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates MOV C (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 63/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: MOV RQD Cockpit MOV 12M Forecast MOV Earnings & Move MOV Dividends & DRIP MOV Insiders & 13F MOV Whale Options MOV Profit Sankey MOV News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 63/100 (C) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

MOV — Movado Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:33:39Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, MOV scores 63 out of 100, grade C, labeled "Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." The five pillars are:

Fundamental Cash Engine: 15 / 20 (ROIC 8.5%; FCF yield 7.56%). This is the pillar supporting the stock most directly, showing a moderate return on invested capital and a cash yield that is meaningful relative to the share price.
Whale 13F Flow: 7 / 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning). This is a weak pillar. Per the source, institutional flow signals are not strongly supportive.
Insider Conviction: 15 / 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow). Moderate support from insider and congressional activity.
Macro Regime Fit: 10 / 20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity). Per the source, the stock moves in line with the market, and its sector sensitivity offers limited tailwind.
Forensic Balance Sheet: 16 / 20 (Altman Z 4.35; Piotroski F 7/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). This is the strongest pillar, indicating a financially sound balance sheet by the cited forensic measures.

For a prospective investor, the rating describes a balanced setup rather than a clear directional signal. The strongest supports are the balance sheet and the cash-generation metrics; the weakest are institutional flow and macro fit. Valuation is the main tradeoff: trailing P/E of 26.6 and EV/EBITDA of 14.1 are elevated relative to the operating margin of 4.4%, so the investment case depends on cash conversion persisting rather than on near-term earnings expansion. The rating is educational context, not a recommendation.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
31.66	$706.4M	26.6	24.7	14.1	1.19	4.4%	1.0	$17.61 - $40.5	8.5%

Business

Movado Group Inc. is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, within the Consumer Specialties industry, per the company profile. Its market capitalization is $0.7B. Per the financials, the company reports revenue of $671.3M for FY 2025. Specific product lines, customer segments, and revenue-generation detail beyond the sector classification and the EBEL divestiture headlines are not available in source data.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

The news feed is dominated by a single catalyst: the divestiture of a 95% stake in the EBEL watch brand, reported at a price of $66.5 million across several headlines (MOV-rss-0, rss-1, rss-2). Coverage frames the sale as a move to focus on the core portfolio. Chanel is named as a member of the buying group (MOV-rss-2). Additional items include a Consumer Discretionary sector benchmarking piece (MOV-rss-3), a Russell 2000 comparison that describes the company as having competitive advantages alongside peers that underwhelm (MOV-rss-4), and a cautionary analysis titled that suggests momentum may not persist (MOV-rss-5). All news items carry a YELLOW light and MARKET WIRE impact label. Risk watch items: execution on the portfolio refocus, and the 52-week price range spanning from $17.61 to $40.5, indicating high realized volatility. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no proprietary signals are present.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply_chain is "NONE," with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies are not available in source data. Sector context is limited to the classification Consumer Discretionary / Consumer Specialties. The divestiture headlines imply a portfolio-reshaping effect, in which proceeds and reduced brand scope could alter the company's category mix, but the source data does not quantify these second-order effects, and no sector correlation data is provided.

Open Questions

What is the total debt figure and the EPS for each reported period? Both are marked N/A in the source data, which limits leverage and per-share analysis.
What is the financial impact of the EBEL divestiture on revenue, margin, and ROIC going forward?
Which specific Form 4 insider transactions and 13F institutional positions drive the 15/20 and 7/20 pillar scores?
Why does FY 2024 free cash flow turn negative at $-9.5M, and what drove the recovery to $53.4M in FY 2025?
How does the 26.6 trailing P/E reconcile with a 4.4% operating margin, and what assumptions underlie the 24.7 forward P/E?

MOV Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Movado Group Inc. (MOV) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MOV Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 14h ago

Movado to Sell 95% Stake in EBEL Luxury Watch Brand for $66.5 Million

Yahoo Finance report covering Movado Group Inc. (MOV) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 17h ago

Movado unloads the EBEL business to focus on its core portfolio (MOV:NYSE)

Seeking Alpha report covering Movado Group Inc. (MOV) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 20h ago

Chanel joins a group set to buy 95% of watch brand EBEL

Stock Titan report covering Movado Group Inc. (MOV) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 23h ago

Consumer Discretionary - Apparel and Accessories Stocks Q2 Recap: Benchmarking Movado (NYSE:MOV)

Yahoo Finance report covering Movado Group Inc. (MOV) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE The Globe and Mail • 1d ago

1 Russell 2000 Stock with Competitive Advantages and 2 That Underwhelm

The Globe and Mail report covering Movado Group Inc. (MOV) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Movado: The Momentum Might Not Last (NYSE:MOV)

Seeking Alpha report covering Movado Group Inc. (MOV) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Movado: Keeping A Closer Eye On Shares After A Small Sale (NYSE:MOV)

Seeking Alpha report covering Movado Group Inc. (MOV) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE https://www.siam.in/ • 1d ago

Movado Group Inc. (MOV) Edges Higher to $33.08 as Shares Test Upper Range - Ratio Spread Trade

https://www.siam.in/ report covering Movado Group Inc. (MOV) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MOV Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $31.21?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MOV 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $34.19 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is MOV (C • RQD 63/100) a Buy at $31.66?

Welcome to the MOV (Movado Group Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 63/100 (Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward) in Consumer Specialties. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $25.01 (-21.0%)

Spot @ $31.66

Pump the brakes on MOV — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on MOV, but look at what you are paying: 26.6x trailing P/E with 54.2% gross margins. Unless Movado Group Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

DE DeltaGamma_99 Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $39.26 (+24.0%)

Spot @ $31.66

MOV cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on MOV, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Consumer Specialties and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $31.66 (52-wk range $17.61 - $40.50), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.