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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / MGRC / earnings
ABM (64) VVX (65) CTOS (60) KFY (78) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

McGrath RentCorp (MGRC) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±5% Move

$129.44 +9.44% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $131.39

McGrath RentCorp (MGRC) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $2.88B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MGRC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, McGrath RentCorp (NASDAQ: MGRC) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $129.44 (+9.44% 1D, market cap $2.88B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MGRC ranks #202 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MGRC compare to ABM and VVX in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), MGRC carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.6x, gross margin of 48.2%, and ROIC of 15.6%. By comparison, ABM (ABM Industries Incorporated) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 19.5x, ROIC 7.6%, cap $3.13B) and VVX (V2X Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 32.4x, ROIC 7.1%, cap $2.52B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KFY leads on earnings multiple (14.8x) while KFY leads on capital efficiency (20.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MGRC?
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Per MGRC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000752714), McGrath RentCorp generated $944.2M in revenue (+3.7% YoY), $156.3M in net income, and $211.3M in free cash flow against $2.36B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (48.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $131.39 (+1.51%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 22.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510067
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C-
Cash (15)Whales (12)SEC (12)Macro (12)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4% Base Target
$159 Bull$135 Base$105 Bear
📬 FREE MGRC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MGRC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MGRC SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 22.4% FCF Margin ($211.3M FCF) & 48.2% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (57.2) create a -8 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
59
Grade C$114.64-2.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
62
Grade C+$112.03+6.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
64
Grade C+$119.56+8.3% Next Q
Current
67
Grade C+$129.44+1.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (59) → C+ (67)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MGRC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, MGRC faces multiple-compression risk if 18.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 45.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($113.84) or 200D SMA ($114.07) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($134.68) toward Bear Floor ($105.05).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MGRC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MGRC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 67%NO 33%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±5% Swing Band

±$6.47 Expected Swing
$122.97 (-5%)Spot $129.44$135.91 (+5%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

MGRC Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 67/100

Trailing EPS: $6.42 • YoY Revenue Growth: 3.7%

Model Bullish Setup (67/100)Model Risk Weight (33/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$944.2M$156.3M$211.3M48.2%
FY 20242024-12-31$910.9M$231.7M$334.1M47.8%
FY 20232023-12-31$831.8M$174.6M$95.3M48.2%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating MGRC & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on MGRC
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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MGRC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +16.12%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-03O $119.6H $129.4L $118.3C $129.4VOL 169.6K
RES: $119.6SUP: $112.4SMA50: $113.8SMA200: $114.1
$131.2$124.1$117.0$109.9$102.8RES $119.6SUP $112.4$129.42026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MGRC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MGRC Butterfly Map → + Track MGRC →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
11.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MGRC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MGRC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MGRC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MGRC)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #202 of 1009 ⚔️ ABM vs MGRC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MGRC vs. ABM, VVX, CTOS, KFY)

Industry: Diversified Commercial Services (32 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, McGrath RentCorp (MGRC) ranks #202 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #365 by equity capitalization ($2.88B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KFY leads on earnings valuation at 14.8x trailing P/E, while KFY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 20.2% ROIC and — gross margin. KFY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 78/100 (B+) compared with MGRC at 67/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MGRC ACTIVE
McGrath RentCorp
C+ 67/100 18.6x 48.2% 15.6% +9.44% $2.88B Benchmark Subject
ABM
ABM Industries Incorporated
C 64/100 19.5x 12.3% 7.6% +0.97% $3.13B /abm-vs-mgrc →
VVX
V2X Inc.
C 65/100 32.4x 8.3% 7.1% +3.52% $2.52B /vvx-vs-mgrc →
CTOS
Custom Truck One Source Inc.
C- 60/100 — 28.5% 4.1% +0.28% $2.41B /ctos-vs-mgrc →
KFY
Korn Ferry
B+ 78/100 14.8x — 20.2% +1.86% $4.18B /kfy-vs-mgrc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000752714 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), McGrath RentCorp (MGRC) reported GAAP revenue of $944.2M (+3.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $910.9M , and +13.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $156.3M, operating cash flow of $255.7M, and free cash flow of $211.3M (-36.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, MGRC closed FY2025 with $2.36B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.96, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $944.2M $156.3M $255.7M $211.3M $2.36B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $910.9M $231.7M $374.4M $334.1M $2.28B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $831.8M $174.6M $95.3M $95.3M — —

3. MGRC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MGRC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, McGrath RentCorp (NASDAQ: MGRC) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $129.44 (+9.44% 1D, market cap $2.88B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MGRC ranks #202 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MGRC compare to ABM and VVX in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), MGRC carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.6x, gross margin of 48.2%, and ROIC of 15.6%. By comparison, ABM (ABM Industries Incorporated) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 19.5x, ROIC 7.6%, cap $3.13B) and VVX (V2X Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 32.4x, ROIC 7.1%, cap $2.52B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KFY leads on earnings multiple (14.8x) while KFY leads on capital efficiency (20.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MGRC?

Per MGRC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000752714), McGrath RentCorp generated $944.2M in revenue (+3.7% YoY), $156.3M in net income, and $211.3M in free cash flow against $2.36B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (48.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MGRC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MGRC last traded at $129.44 (+9.44% on volume of 1,247,119 shares), positioning the stock +13.70% above its 50-day simple moving average ($113.84) and +13.47% above its 200-day simple moving average ($114.07). Across its 52-week range of $94.99 to $125.83, MGRC sits at the 100.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.0% ($122.97 to $135.91).

Direct Sub-Reports: MGRC RQD Cockpit MGRC 12M Forecast MGRC Earnings & Move MGRC Dividends & DRIP MGRC Insiders & 13F MGRC Whale Options MGRC Profit Sankey MGRC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 67/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MGRC — McGrath RentCorp: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

McGrath RentCorp (MGRC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 67/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $129.44 (+9.44% 1D, market capitalization $2.88B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 15.6%, gross margin of 48.2%, operating margin of 25.8%, and free cash flow yield of 7.25%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.96, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, within the Diversified Commercial Services industry, with a market capitalization of $2.9B. Per the Stock Titan headline in the news feed, the company is described as a rental company that has lowered its revenue outlook and expects $270M–$290M in rental equipment spending.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), McGrath RentCorp (MGRC) reported $944.2M in annual revenue (up from $910.9M in FY2024, +3.7% YoY) and $156.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($831.8M revenue, $174.6M net income) through FY2025, MGRC scaled operating cash flow to $255.7M and free cash flow to $211.3M, backed by $2.36B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 67/100): Strong cash generator (48.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $94.99 – $125.83 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Investors must weigh 18.6x trailing P/E and 10.4x EV/EBITDA against 25.8% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Diversified Commercial Services (Consumer Discretionary), MGRC carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 48.2%.

  • Key Question #1: Can MGRC sustain or expand its 25.8% operating margin and 15.6% ROIC against Diversified Commercial Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $944.2M and free cash flow of $211.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MGRC's 17.3x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

MGRC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for McGrath RentCorp (MGRC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MGRC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MGRC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $129.44?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MGRC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MGRC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $156.13 (+32.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction (16/20) and a 7.25% FCF yield with 15.6% ROIC support the cash-generation case.

Long MGRC at $118.28 targeting $156.13. Insider conviction (16/20) and a 7.25% FCF yield with 15.6% ROIC support the cash-generation case.. Institutional whale score is 12/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $94.99 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Fair point on 18.6x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Diversified Commercial Services. If gross margin (48.2%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $92.26 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $118.28

Net income fell from $231.7M to $156.3M and the revenue outlook was lowered while the stock trades at 18.6x trailing earnings.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short MGRC above $118.28. Net income fell from $231.7M to $156.3M and the revenue outlook was lowered while the stock trades at 18.6x trailing earnings.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20) and FCF yield (7.25%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $125.83.

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