Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$10.10 -13.53% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.83

Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $231.9M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MFIN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MFIN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Medallion Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: MFIN) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $10.10 (-13.53% 1D, market cap $231.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MFIN ranks #599 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MFIN compare to ONIT and USDE in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), MFIN carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.5%. By comparison, ONIT (Onity Group Inc.) holds a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 30.2%, cap $229.9M) and USDE (StablecoinX Inc. (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $229.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MFIN leads on earnings multiple (6.2x) while ONIT leads on capital efficiency (30.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MFIN?
▼

Per MFIN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001000209), Medallion Financial Corp. generated $0 in revenue, $43.0M in net income, and $126.3M in free cash flow against $2.96B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.83 (-2.63%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 3.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510052
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D
Cash (13)Whales (6)SEC (13)Macro (7)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.7% Base Target
$13 Bull$10 Base$8 Bear
📬 FREE MFIN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MFIN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MFIN SCORES 52/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.2% FCF Margin ($126.3M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
60
Grade C$11.44-2.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
57
Grade C$11.20+1.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
55
Grade C$11.37-11.2% Next Q
Current
52
Grade D+$10.10-1.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (60) → D+ (52)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MFIN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MFIN currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.70) and Max Pain ($10.61) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $12.87.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MFIN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MFIN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your MFIN Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $10.10: 990.1 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $7.67
$7,594
$-2,406 (-24.1%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $9.83
$9,733
$-267 (-2.7%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $12.87
$12,743
+$2,743 (+27.4%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$1074%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$1269%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$958%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MFIN)

  • ✓Walkthrough of MFIN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
MFIN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +9.66%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $11.68H $11.68L $10.10C $10.10VOL 65.0K
RES: $13.52SUP: $10.09SMA50: $11.70SMA200: $10.28
$12.50$11.51$10.53$9.54$8.55RES $13.52SUP $10.09$10.102026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MFIN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-10.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MFIN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MFIN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MFIN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MFIN)

Financials Rank #599 of 1096 ⚔️ ONIT vs MFIN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MFIN vs. ONIT, USDE, SVIA, DGXX)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN) ranks #599 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #855 by equity capitalization ($231.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MFIN leads on earnings valuation at 6.2x trailing P/E, while ONIT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.2% ROIC and — gross margin. MFIN currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 52/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MFIN ACTIVE
Medallion Financial Corp.
D+ 52/100 6.2x — 10.5% -13.53% $231.9M Benchmark Subject
ONIT
Onity Group Inc.
D- 40/100 — — 30.2% -0.86% $229.9M /onit-vs-mfin →
USDE
StablecoinX Inc. (Class A)
D+ 52/100 — — — -14.68% $229.2M /usde-vs-mfin →
SVIA
Silvia Inc.
D 50/100 — — — -10.91% $238.2M /svia-vs-mfin →
DGXX
Digi Power X Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares
E 19/100 — — -23.0% -6.72% $225.1M /dgxx-vs-mfin →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001000209

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $43.0M, operating cash flow of $126.3M, and free cash flow of $126.3M (+16.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, MFIN closed FY2025 with $2.96B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $0 $43.0M $126.3M $126.3M $2.96B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $0 $35.9M $108.7M $108.7M $2.87B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $0 $55.1M $113.8M $113.8M — —

3. MFIN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MFIN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Medallion Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: MFIN) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $10.10 (-13.53% 1D, market cap $231.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MFIN ranks #599 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MFIN compare to ONIT and USDE in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), MFIN carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.5%. By comparison, ONIT (Onity Group Inc.) holds a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 30.2%, cap $229.9M) and USDE (StablecoinX Inc. (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $229.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MFIN leads on earnings multiple (6.2x) while ONIT leads on capital efficiency (30.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MFIN?

Per MFIN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001000209), Medallion Financial Corp. generated $0 in revenue, $43.0M in net income, and $126.3M in free cash flow against $2.96B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MFIN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MFIN last traded at $10.10 (-13.53% on volume of 64,958 shares), positioning the stock -13.68% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.70) and -1.75% below its 200-day simple moving average ($10.28). Across its 52-week range of $7.85 to $12.26, MFIN sits at the 51.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.3% ($9.26 to $10.94).

MFIN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is MFIN's 12-month stock price target?

Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $9.83 (-2.7% from $10.10), with a bull-case target of $12.87 and a bear-case floor of $7.67.

Is MFIN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates MFIN D+ (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 52/100.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 52/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

MFIN — Medallion Financial Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:39:35Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, MFIN scores 61 out of 100, earning a letter grade of C- and the verdict "Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral." The Fundamental Cash Engine pillar scores 13 of 20, with ROIC of 10.5% and FCF yield of 0%. The Whale 13F Flow pillar scores 11 of 20, reflecting institutional accumulation and options positioning. The Insider Conviction pillar scores 13 of 20, based on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The Macro Regime Fit pillar scores 11 of 20, with Beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity. The Forensic Balance Sheet pillar scores 13 of 20, with Altman Z of 2.5, Piotroski F of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5.

For a prospective investor, the rating indicates a mixed profile rather than a clear directional signal. Per the RQD rating, the strongest pillars are the cash engine and balance-sheet forensics, each at 13 of 20, while flow and macro-fit pillars sit at 11 of 20. The 0% FCF yield in the cash-engine pillar is a notable valuation tradeoff against the reported ROIC of 10.5%. Upside drivers cited in the source data are limited to the ROIC figure and the reported Dividend Yield; the rating itself does not translate these into a price forecast.

Business

Per the company profile, Medallion Financial Corp. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Finance: Consumer Services industry. Source data does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model. Per the profile, the company's market capitalization is $0.3B.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$0.0M$0.0M$43.0MN/A$126.3M$136.3MN/A
FY 2024$0.0M$0.0M$35.9MN/A$108.7M$98.2MN/A
FY 2023$0.0M$0.0M$55.1MN/A$113.8MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, net income moved from $55.1M in FY 2023 to $35.9M in FY 2024 and then to $43.0M in FY 2025. Reported revenue and operating income are $0.0M in each period. Per the market data, gross, operating, and net margins are each 0%, and FCF yield is 0%. Per the RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5, the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5; the RQD rating and market data report ROIC of 10.5%.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the news feed, six items reference MFIN. Headlines cover the Q3 earnings call, the Q3 2026 earnings call presentation dated 2026-10-30, a GuruFocus report that shares fell 3.5%, the Q3 2026 earnings call transcript, a ZimCal Asset Management conclusion of a five-year MFIN investment under a negotiated agreement, and a Simply Wall St report that the stock tumbled as Q3 results squeezed profit margins. Items are tagged YELLOW (five) or RED (one, labeled RISK WATCH). The RED-tagged item is the GuruFocus share-decline report. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no proprietary signals are present.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply chain is NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Sector is Financials and industry is Finance: Consumer Services. No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks are identified in the source data.

Open Questions

  • What are the company's revenue and operating income, given that the reported figures are $0.0M across all periods?
  • What explains the gap between the 0% FCF yield in the market data and the $126.3M FCF reported for FY 2025?
  • What do the Q3 2026 earnings call materials say about the margin pressure described in the Simply Wall St headline?
  • What is the debt balance, given that debt is N/A in every reported period?
  • What is the EV/EBITDA, and what would it reveal about valuation given the 6.2 trailing P/E?

MFIN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MFIN Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MFIN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $10.10?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MFIN 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MFIN:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $12.61 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is MFIN (C- • RQD 61/100) a Buy at $11.68?

Welcome to the MFIN (Medallion Financial Corp.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 61/100 (Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral) in Finance: Consumer Services. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

VA ValDiscipline Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $9.81 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $11.68

Pump the brakes on MFIN — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on MFIN, but look at what you are paying: 6.2x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Medallion Financial Corp. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $13.32 (+14.0%)
Spot @ $11.68

MFIN cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on MFIN, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Finance: Consumer Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $11.68 (52-wk range $7.85 - $12.26), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

LIVE TAPE SPY $752.10 -1.80% QQQ $681.09 -3.60% DIA $519.34 -1.08% IWM $279.14 -1.68% NVDA $204.64 -4.22% AAPL $344.63 -1.23% MSFT $521.91 -1.55% TSLA $399.81 -0.86% PLTR $184.11 -6.27% SOFI $16.76 -4.83% IBIT $43.35 -5.42% GLD $361.65 -3.59%