Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$430.36 -0.31% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $429.30

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 38/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $9.94B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MDGL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: MDGL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $430.36 (-0.31% 1D, market cap $9.94B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, MDGL ranks #495 in composite RQD confidence.

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🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MDGL compare to SYRE and PTGX in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), MDGL carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -29.7%. By comparison, SYRE (Spyre Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -20.0%, cap $10.08B) and PTGX (Protagonist Therapeutics Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -16.7%, cap $9.37B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TGTX leads on earnings multiple (19.9x) while TGTX leads on capital efficiency (12.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MDGL?
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Per MDGL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001157601), Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $958.4M in revenue (+432.1% YoY), -$288.3M in net income, and -$190.0M in free cash flow against $1.26B in total assets and $339.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $429.28 (-0.25%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510038
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Cash (9)Whales (5)SEC (14)Macro (4)CEO (6)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9% Base Target
$646 Bull$392 Base$305 Bear
📬 FREE MDGL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MDGL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (38/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MDGL SCORES 38/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (37% of score)

Altman Z-Score 7.65 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (30.1) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
46
Grade D$460.01-0.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
43
Grade D$457.96-5.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
41
Grade D$431.00-0.1% Next Q
Current
38
Grade D-$430.36-7.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (46) → D- (38)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MDGL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MDGL currently carries a cautious 38/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($493.72) and Max Pain ($451.88) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $645.75.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MDGL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MDGL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your MDGL Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $430.36: 23.2 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $305.47
$7,098
$-2,902 (-29.0%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $391.63
$9,100
$-900 (-9.0%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $645.75
$15,005
+$5,005 (+50.0%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$40774%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$60769%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$34958%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MDGL)

  • ✓Walkthrough of MDGL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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MDGL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -17.02%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $431.7H $431.7L $430.4C $430.4VOL 251.7K
RES: $530.4SUP: $424.0SMA50: $493.7SMA200: $498.9
$579.6$537.7$495.8$453.9$412.0RES $530.4SUP $424.0$430.42026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MDGL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
17.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +180.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MDGL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MDGL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MDGL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MDGL)

Health Care Rank #495 of 1016 ⚔️ SYRE vs MDGL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (MDGL vs. SYRE, PTGX, TGTX, CORT)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) ranks #495 by composite RQD confidence (38/100, grade D-) and #112 by equity capitalization ($9.94B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TGTX leads on earnings valuation at 19.9x trailing P/E, while TGTX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.0% ROIC and 83.7% gross margin. PTGX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with MDGL at 38/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MDGL ACTIVE
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D- 38/100 — — -29.7% -0.31% $9.94B Benchmark Subject
SYRE
Spyre Therapeutics Inc.
D+ 55/100 — — -20.0% -2.42% $10.08B /syre-vs-mdgl →
PTGX
Protagonist Therapeutics Inc.
C 65/100 — — -16.7% +0.35% $9.37B /ptgx-vs-mdgl →
TGTX
TG Therapeutics Inc.
C 63/100 19.9x 83.7% 12.0% +5.34% $9.36B /tgtx-vs-mdgl →
CORT
Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated
C 63/100 93.2x 96.0% 4.8% -5.62% $8.77B /cort-vs-mdgl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001157601

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) reported GAAP revenue of $958.4M (+432.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $180.1M ) , GAAP net income of -$288.3M, operating cash flow of -$189.6M, and free cash flow of -$190.0M (+58.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, MDGL closed FY2025 with $1.26B in total assets against $339.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 7.65, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $958.4M -$288.3M -$189.6M -$190.0M $1.26B $339.9M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $180.1M -$465.9M -$455.6M -$457.0M $1.04B $117.6M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $0 -$373.6M -$324.2M -$324.2M $5.49B $1.28B

3. MDGL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MDGL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: MDGL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $430.36 (-0.31% 1D, market cap $9.94B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, MDGL ranks #495 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MDGL compare to SYRE and PTGX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), MDGL carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -29.7%. By comparison, SYRE (Spyre Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -20.0%, cap $10.08B) and PTGX (Protagonist Therapeutics Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -16.7%, cap $9.37B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TGTX leads on earnings multiple (19.9x) while TGTX leads on capital efficiency (12.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MDGL?

Per MDGL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001157601), Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $958.4M in revenue (+432.1% YoY), -$288.3M in net income, and -$190.0M in free cash flow against $1.26B in total assets and $339.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MDGL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MDGL last traded at $430.36 (-0.31% on volume of 251,659 shares), positioning the stock -12.83% below its 50-day simple moving average ($493.72) and -13.74% below its 200-day simple moving average ($498.90). Across its 52-week range of $405.00 to $615.00, MDGL sits at the 12.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 30.1 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.8% ($401.10 to $459.62).

MDGL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is MDGL's 12-month stock price target?

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $391.63 (-9% from $430.36), with a bull-case target of $645.75 and a bear-case floor of $305.47.

Is MDGL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates MDGL D- (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 38/100.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 38/100 (D-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

MDGL — Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:16:40Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, MDGL scores 39 out of 100, earning a D- grade and the verdict "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 9 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of -29.7% and FCF yield of -1.91%. For an investor, this indicates the business is not currently generating returns on invested capital or positive free cash flow relative to its market value.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 5 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar covers institutional accumulation and options positioning. The score is weak, suggesting limited evidence of sustained institutional conviction in the source data.
  • Insider Conviction: 6 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar covers SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The below-midpoint score indicates insider signal is not a meaningful support for the thesis.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 5 / 20. Per the RQD rating, beta is 1.08 with sector sensitivity considered. This implies the stock moves roughly in line with the market and carries modest macro-regime alignment.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 14 / 20. Per the RQD rating, Altman Z is 7.65, Piotroski F is 6/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.56. This is the strongest pillar, indicating the balance sheet is comparatively sound even though cash-flow metrics are weak.

Taken together, the balance sheet offers some resilience while operating economics and flow signals are weak. A prospective investor should weigh the upside drivers (balance-sheet strength, an analyst-reported price target raise referenced in news) against the valuation tradeoff: the forward P/E of 24 is being paid against negative trailing EPS and negative operating margins, so earnings-driven upside depends on future execution rather than current results.

Business

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. Per the profile, the company carries a market capitalization of $10.0B. Per the SEC financials, FY 2025 revenue was $958.4M, indicating a commercial-stage revenue base. Product, customer, and revenue-model details are not available in source data.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$958.4M$-300.1M$-288.3MN/A$-190.0M$198.7M$339.9M
FY 2024$180.1M$-497.9M$-465.9MN/A$-457.0M$100.0M$117.6M
FY 2023$0.0M$-380.5M$-373.6MN/A$-324.2MN/A$1283.7M

Per the market data, operating margin is -31.3%, net margin is -30.1%, gross margin is 0%, and ROIC is -29.7%. Per the RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 7.65 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, with Debt/Equity at 0.56. Revenue scaled from $0.0M in FY 2023 to $958.4M in FY 2025 while operating losses persisted in every reported period. The balance sheet, per the forensic metrics, is comparatively sound, though cash and debt figures show debt exceeding cash in FY 2025.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • RISK WATCH (RED): A Yahoo Finance report on the Rezdiffra genetic-risk data reframing the investment case for MDGL.
  • MARKET WIRE (YELLOW): A Seeking Alpha report characterizing the market as grading a launch rather than a self-funding franchise.
  • MARKET WIRE (YELLOW): A Stocktwits report citing retail discussion of M&A speculation and fresh patents for the liver drug.
  • CATALYST (GREEN): An Investing.com report stating UBS raised its price target on the F4 trial outlook.
  • MARKET WIRE (YELLOW): A TradingView estimates page for MDGL.
  • MARKET WIRE (YELLOW): A Yahoo Finance report on a genetics update keeping fair value in focus.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What are the company's specific products, revenue concentration, and reimbursement exposure behind the $958.4M FY 2025 revenue figure?
  • What is the cash runway given FY 2025 FCF of $-190.0M against cash of $198.7M?
  • What is the trailing P/E and EV/EBITDA, which the source data does not provide?
  • What analyst consensus rating and price targets exist beyond the single UBS target raise referenced in news?
  • Who are the institutional and insider holders, and what is the direction of recent 13F and Form 4 activity?

MDGL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MDGL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MDGL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $430.36?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MDGL 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MDGL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $379.90 (-12.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is MDGL (D- • RQD 39/100) a Buy at $431.70?

Welcome to the MDGL (Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 39/100 (Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $349.68 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $431.70

Pump the brakes on MDGL — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on MDGL, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $548.26 (+27.0%)
Spot @ $431.70

MDGL cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on MDGL, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $431.70 (52-wk range $399.00 - $615.00), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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