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Stock Ratings / Financials / MBWM / dividends
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Mercantile Bank Corporation (MBWM) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$61.20 +2.32% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $61.34

Mercantile Bank Corporation (MBWM) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.03B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MBWM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Mercantile Bank Corporation (NASDAQ: MBWM) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $61.20 (+2.32% 1D, market cap $1.03B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, MBWM ranks #508 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MBWM compare to BFST and MCBS in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), MBWM carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.2%. By comparison, BFST (Business First Bancshares Inc.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 11.8x, ROIC 9.8%, cap $1.04B) and MCBS (MetroCity Bankshares Inc.) posts a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 15.1x, ROIC 12.6%, cap $1.03B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MBWM leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while MCBS leads on capital efficiency (12.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MBWM?
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Per MBWM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001042729), Mercantile Bank Corporation generated $2.87B in revenue (+12.9% YoY), $88.8M in net income, and $18.0M in free cash flow against $6.84B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $61.34 (+0.23%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.60% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510056
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C-
Cash (7)Whales (11)SEC (13)Macro (11)CEO (14)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target
$72 Bull$61 Base$47 Bear
📬 FREE MBWM RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MBWM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MBWM SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-0.60% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 13 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
48
Grade D$58.03+1.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
51
Grade C-$59.04+2.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
53
Grade C-$60.68+0.9% Next Q
Current
56
Grade D+$61.20-0.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (48) → D+ (56)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MBWM Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, MBWM faces multiple-compression risk if 11.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-0.60% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($59.75) or 200D SMA ($55.52) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($60.65) toward Bear Floor ($47.31).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MBWM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MBWM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
2.88% Total Yield
2.28% Cash ($1.40/yr) + 0.6% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
41/100 • ELEVATED PAYOUT WATCH
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
86.7% of FCF
8 consecutive years of payout growth
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (7.8% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $21,193

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $610/yr
$10.8K
Yr 1
$11.6K
Yr 2
$12.5K
Yr 3
$13.5K
Yr 4
$14.6K
Yr 5
$15.7K
Yr 6
$16.9K
Yr 7
$18.2K
Yr 8
$19.7K
Yr 9
$21.2K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MBWM)

  • ✓Walkthrough of MBWM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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MBWM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +19.81%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $60.65H $61.20L $59.81C $61.20VOL 114.4K
RES: $63.53SUP: $56.37SMA50: $59.75SMA200: $55.52
$63.95$59.81$55.67$51.53$47.40RES $63.53SUP $56.37$61.202026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MBWM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MBWM Butterfly Map → + Track MBWM →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
2.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +12.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MBWM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MBWM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MBWM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MBWM)

Financials Rank #508 of 1097 ⚔️ BFST vs MBWM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MBWM vs. BFST, MCBS, CCNE, EGBN)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Mercantile Bank Corporation (MBWM) ranks #508 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #543 by equity capitalization ($1.03B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MBWM leads on earnings valuation at 11.8x trailing P/E, while MCBS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.6% ROIC and — gross margin. BFST currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with MBWM at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MBWM ACTIVE
Mercantile Bank Corporation
D+ 56/100 11.8x — 12.2% +2.32% $1.03B Benchmark Subject
BFST
Business First Bancshares Inc.
B- 70/100 11.8x — 9.8% +2.89% $1.04B /bfst-vs-mbwm →
MCBS
MetroCity Bankshares Inc.
C 62/100 15.1x — 12.6% +2.34% $1.03B /mcbs-vs-mbwm →
CCNE
CNB Financial Corporation
C 65/100 16.0x — 7.6% +3.10% $1.05B /ccne-vs-mbwm →
EGBN
Eagle Bancorp Inc.
D+ 54/100 — — -12.2% +2.67% $1.01B /egbn-vs-mbwm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001042729 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Mercantile Bank Corporation (MBWM) reported GAAP revenue of $2.87B (+12.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.54B , and +675.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $88.8M, operating cash flow of $18.0M, and free cash flow of $18.0M (-82.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, MBWM closed FY2025 with $6.84B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.87B $88.8M $18.0M $18.0M $6.84B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.54B $79.6M $101.1M $101.1M $6.05B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $370.0M $82.2M $66.6M $66.6M — —

3. MBWM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MBWM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Mercantile Bank Corporation (NASDAQ: MBWM) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $61.20 (+2.32% 1D, market cap $1.03B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, MBWM ranks #508 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MBWM compare to BFST and MCBS in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), MBWM carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.2%. By comparison, BFST (Business First Bancshares Inc.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 11.8x, ROIC 9.8%, cap $1.04B) and MCBS (MetroCity Bankshares Inc.) posts a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 15.1x, ROIC 12.6%, cap $1.03B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MBWM leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while MCBS leads on capital efficiency (12.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MBWM?

Per MBWM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001042729), Mercantile Bank Corporation generated $2.87B in revenue (+12.9% YoY), $88.8M in net income, and $18.0M in free cash flow against $6.84B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MBWM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MBWM last traded at $61.20 (+2.32% on volume of 109,562 shares), positioning the stock +2.43% above its 50-day simple moving average ($59.75) and +10.23% above its 200-day simple moving average ($55.52). Across its 52-week range of $43.00 to $62.95, MBWM sits at the 91.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.7% ($58.32 to $64.08).

Direct Sub-Reports: MBWM RQD Cockpit MBWM 12M Forecast MBWM Earnings & Move MBWM Dividends & DRIP MBWM Insiders & 13F MBWM Whale Options MBWM Profit Sankey MBWM News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 56/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MBWM — Mercantile Bank Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Mercantile Bank Corporation (MBWM) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 56/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $61.20 (+2.32% 1D, market capitalization $1.03B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (7/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 12.2%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 1.71%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (11/20) + Insider Conviction (14/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Mercantile Bank Corporation (MBWM) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector and the Major Banks industry..0B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Mercantile Bank Corporation (MBWM) reported $2.87B in annual revenue (up from $2.54B in FY2024, +12.9% YoY) and $88.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($370.0M revenue, $82.2M net income) through FY2025, MBWM scaled operating cash flow to $18.0M and free cash flow to $18.0M, backed by $6.84B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 56/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 1.71% and institutional whale pillar of 11/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 11/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $43.00 – $62.95 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 11.8x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Major Banks (Financials), MBWM carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can MBWM sustain or expand its — operating margin and 12.2% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.87B and free cash flow of $18.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MBWM's 11.0x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

MBWM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Mercantile Bank Corporation (MBWM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MBWM Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MBWM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $61.20?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MBWM 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MBWM:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $71.77 (+20.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

ROIC of 12.2% and a 2.28% dividend yield at an 11.8 trailing P/E offer income and return support.

Long MBWM at $59.81 targeting $71.77. ROIC of 12.2% and a 2.28% dividend yield at an 11.8 trailing P/E offer income and return support.. Institutional whale score is 11/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $43.00 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@TapeReader_Pro Agree on the RQD 56/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $59.81 and keeping dry powder in case we test $55.62.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $50.24 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $59.81

A 1.71% FCF yield and Piotroski F of 4/9 leave cash generation and balance sheet strength thin.

I respect the product at Mercantile Bank Corporation, but the stock at $59.81 is a different story. A 1.71% FCF yield and Piotroski F of 4/9 leave cash generation and balance sheet strength thin.. FCF yield is 1.71% and RQD sits at 56/100 (D+) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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