Matson Inc. (MATX) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$223.85 -1.38% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $223.83

Matson Inc. (MATX) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 71/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 14% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $6.79B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MATX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Matson Inc. (NYSE: MATX) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $223.85 (-1.38% 1D, market cap $6.79B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MATX ranks #131 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MATX compare to KEX and INSW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Marine Transportation), MATX carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.5%. By comparison, KEX (Kirby Corporation) holds a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 21.7x, ROIC 9.3%, cap $7.71B) and INSW (International Seaways Inc.) posts a B+ grade (79/100 RQD, P/E 18.8x, ROIC 11.2%, cap $5.81B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MATX leads on earnings multiple (15.3x) while MATX leads on capital efficiency (13.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MATX?
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Per MATX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000003453), Matson Inc. generated $3.34B in revenue (-2.3% YoY), $444.8M in net income, and $396.6M in free cash flow against $4.64B in total assets and $312.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $223.83 (-0.01%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 11.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-
025507510071
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk B-
Cash (13)Whales (13)SEC (14)Macro (14)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.9% Base Target
$280 Bull$237 Base$184 Bear
📬 FREE MATX RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MATX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (71/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MATX SCORES 71/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (20% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.63 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-7 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
79
Grade A-$235.22+0.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
76
Grade B+$237.27-2.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
74
Grade B+$231.74-3.4% Next Q
Current
71
Grade B-$223.85+6.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: A- (79) → B- (71)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MATX Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 71/100 (B-) score, MATX faces multiple-compression risk if 15.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($228.07) or 200D SMA ($193.69) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($236.95) toward Bear Floor ($183.56).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MATX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MATX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your MATX Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $223.85: 44.7 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $183.56
$8,200
$-1,800 (-18.0%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $236.95
$10,585
+$585 (+5.9%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $279.60
$12,491
+$2,491 (+24.9%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (34 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 23● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskOUTPERFORM$24674%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$26369%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$21058%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (MATX Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
MATX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +31.04%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $228.9H $228.9L $223.9C $223.9VOL 442.8K
RES: $256.4SUP: $222.2SMA50: $228.1SMA200: $193.7
$248.7$216.3$183.8$151.4$119.0RES $256.4SUP $222.2$223.92026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MATX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
7.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -2.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MATX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MATX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MATX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MATX)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #131 of 1011 ⚔️ KEX vs MATX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MATX vs. KEX, INSW, NCLH, CMBT)

Industry: Marine Transportation (67 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Matson Inc. (MATX) ranks #131 by composite RQD confidence (71/100, grade B-) and #223 by equity capitalization ($6.79B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MATX leads on earnings valuation at 15.3x trailing P/E, while MATX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.5% ROIC and — gross margin. INSW currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 79/100 (B+) compared with MATX at 71/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MATX ACTIVE
Matson Inc.
B- 71/100 15.3x — 13.5% -1.38% $6.79B Benchmark Subject
KEX
Kirby Corporation
B 75/100 21.7x — 9.3% -1.42% $7.71B /kex-vs-matx →
INSW
International Seaways Inc.
B+ 79/100 18.8x — 11.2% -1.45% $5.81B /insw-vs-matx →
NCLH
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.
D- 39/100 19.8x — 11.7% -3.57% $8.37B /nclh-vs-matx →
CMBT
CMB.TECH NV
D+ 58/100 — — — -1.76% $5.44B /cmbt-vs-matx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000003453

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Matson Inc. (MATX) reported GAAP revenue of $3.34B (-2.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.42B , and +8.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $444.8M, operating cash flow of $547.1M, and free cash flow of $396.6M (-35.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, MATX closed FY2025 with $4.64B in total assets against $312.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.63, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $3.34B $444.8M $547.1M $396.6M $4.64B $312.1M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $3.42B $476.4M $767.8M $613.8M $4.60B $350.8M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $3.09B $297.1M $510.5M $371.2M $3.73B $873.6M

3. MATX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MATX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Matson Inc. (NYSE: MATX) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $223.85 (-1.38% 1D, market cap $6.79B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MATX ranks #131 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MATX compare to KEX and INSW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Marine Transportation), MATX carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.5%. By comparison, KEX (Kirby Corporation) holds a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 21.7x, ROIC 9.3%, cap $7.71B) and INSW (International Seaways Inc.) posts a B+ grade (79/100 RQD, P/E 18.8x, ROIC 11.2%, cap $5.81B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MATX leads on earnings multiple (15.3x) while MATX leads on capital efficiency (13.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MATX?

Per MATX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000003453), Matson Inc. generated $3.34B in revenue (-2.3% YoY), $444.8M in net income, and $396.6M in free cash flow against $4.64B in total assets and $312.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MATX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MATX last traded at $223.85 (-1.38% on volume of 297,756 shares), positioning the stock -1.85% below its 50-day simple moving average ($228.07) and +15.57% above its 200-day simple moving average ($193.69). Across its 52-week range of $97.63 to $240.87, MATX sits at the 88.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.5% ($211.54 to $236.16).

MATX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is MATX's 12-month stock price target?

Matson Inc. (MATX) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $236.95 (+5.9% from $223.85), with a bull-case target of $279.6 and a bear-case floor of $183.56.

Is MATX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates MATX B- (Buy — BUY) with an RQD Confidence score of 71/100.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 71/100 (B-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

MATX — Matson Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:18:47Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, MATX scores 71 out of 100, a letter grade of B-, with the verdict "Roarable Buy — Sound Institutional Accumulation." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Per the RQD rating, ROIC is 13.5% and FCF yield is 5.84%. Cash generation is sound but not the strongest component of the score.
  • Whale 13F Flow (13/20): Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. The source data does not include 13F holdings detail, so the basis for this score cannot be independently verified from the material provided.
  • Insider Conviction (17/20): Per the RQD rating, this is the highest pillar, reflecting SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The underlying transaction records are not included in the source data.
  • Macro Regime Fit (14/20): Per the RQD rating, beta is 1.14 with sector sensitivity noted. A beta above 1.0 implies the stock has historically moved somewhat more than the market, which can amplify both gains and drawdowns.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Per the RQD rating, Altman Z is 3.63, Piotroski F is 6/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.11, indicating a conservatively financed balance sheet by these measures.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the pattern is a company with strong balance-sheet and insider-activity readings, moderate cash-return metrics, and a beta-driven exposure to market swings. Valuation sits at a P/E (TTM) of 15.3 and a forward P/E of 14.2 per the market data, implying modest expected earnings growth priced in, though the source data does not provide growth estimates to confirm that. The RQD verdict is a model-derived composite and does not guarantee future performance.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
226.99$6.79B15.314.211.114.870.66%1.14$97.63 - $240.8713.5%

Business

Matson Inc. (MATX) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, within the Marine Transportation industry. Per the company profile, it operates with a market capitalization of $6.8B. Not available in source data: a detailed description of its customer base, service lines, or revenue mix. The source data does not describe how the company makes money beyond its sector and industry classification.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$3344.5M$499.8M$444.8MN/A$396.6M$141.9M$312.1M
FY 2024$3421.8M$551.3M$476.4MN/A$613.8M$266.8M$350.8M
FY 2023$3094.6M$342.8M$297.1MN/A$371.2MN/A$873.6M

Per the SEC financials, revenue declined from $3421.8M in FY 2024 to $3344.5M in FY 2025, while net income declined from $476.4M to $444.8M. Per the market data, operating margin is 14.9%, net margin is 13.3%, and gross margin is recorded as 0%, which the source does not explain. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 3.63 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9. Debt fell from $873.6M in FY 2023 to $312.1M in FY 2025, and the Debt/Equity ratio is 0.11 per the RQD rating.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news wire, six market-wire items reference MATX, all flagged YELLOW with the impact label "MARKET WIRE." The headlines include a Yahoo Finance Canada quote page, an Investor's Business Daily piece describing an uptrend into a buy zone with "an earnings pop in sight," a Benzinga 10-year return piece, a TradingView Q2 earnings comparison describing Matson as "Best of the Bunch" among marine transportation peers, and a MarketBeat item noting a "Moderate Buy" rating from Wall Street analysts. The summaries are generic market-coverage descriptions and do not contain specific catalyst details, figures, or dates beyond publication timing. Risk watch items: the news wire itself contains no concrete negative catalyst, and the RQD rating's macro-fit pillar flags beta-driven sensitivity. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no proprietary signals or supply-chain links are recorded (see next section).

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as "NONE," with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks therefore cannot be mapped from the source data. Not available in source data: any named suppliers, customers, or sector peers beyond the TradingView reference to marine transportation Q2 comparisons. A prospective investor should treat ripple effects as unmeasured rather than absent.

Open Questions

  • What drives the gross margin figure of 0% in the market data, and how does it reconcile with reported operating and net margins?
  • What are the specific insider Form 4 and Congressional PTR transactions underlying the 17/20 insider conviction pillar?
  • Which institutional 13F filers account for the accumulation signal, and what is the trend in their positions?
  • Why is EPS listed as N/A for all three reported fiscal years when EPS (TTM) is 14.87?
  • What explains the decline in FY 2025 cash from $266.8M to $141.9M alongside lower free cash flow?

MATX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Matson Inc. (MATX) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MATX Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MATX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $223.85?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MATX 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MATX:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $267.85 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is MATX (B- • RQD 71/100) a Buy at $226.99?

Welcome to the MATX (Matson Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 71/100 (Roarable Buy — Sound Institutional Accumulation) in Marine Transportation. Bulls point to capital efficiency (13.5% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $179.32 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $226.99

Pump the brakes on MATX — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on MATX, but look at what you are paying: 15.3x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Matson Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $281.47 (+24.0%)
Spot @ $226.99

MATX cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on MATX, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Marine Transportation and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $226.99 (52-wk range $97.63 - $240.87), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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