LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$0.66 -26.67% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.63

LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 20/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $184.9M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is LVWR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, LiveWire Group Inc. (NYSE: LVWR) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 20/100 at a spot price of $0.66 (-26.67% 1D, market cap $184.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, LVWR ranks #990 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does LVWR compare to FOXF and HOG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Motor Vehicles), LVWR carries a Roarable E (20/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -17.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, FOXF (Fox Factory Holding Corp.) holds a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $686.4M) and HOG (Harley-Davidson Inc.) posts a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 9.3x, ROIC 18.0%, cap $3.16B). Among the 5-stock peer group, LKQ leads on earnings multiple (7.5x) while HOG leads on capital efficiency (18.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LVWR?
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Per LVWR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001898795), LiveWire Group Inc. generated $25.7M in revenue (-3.6% YoY), -$75.1M in net income, and -$57.4M in free cash flow against $146.4M in total assets and $74.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.63 (-4.99%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (20/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-11.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510020
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (5)Whales (3)SEC (5)Macro (4)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-16.7% Base Target
$6 Bull$1 Base$0 Bear
📬 FREE LVWR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LVWR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (20/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY LVWR SCORES 20/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+5/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 0% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+5/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
28
Grade E$1.68-7.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
25
Grade E$1.55+8.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
23
Grade E$1.68-60.7% Next Q
Current
20
Grade E$0.66-11.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (28) → E (20)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a LVWR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While LVWR currently carries a cautious 20/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.41) and Max Pain ($0.69) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $5.79.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LVWR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “LVWR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your LVWR Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $0.66: 15151.5 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $0.43
$6,515
$-3,485 (-34.8%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $0.55
$8,333
$-1,667 (-16.7%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $5.79
$87,727
+$77,727 (+777.3%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$174%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$569%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$058%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring LVWR)

  • ✓Walkthrough of LVWR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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LVWR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -60.48%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $1.60H $1.60L $0.66C $0.66VOL 2.53M
RES: $1.88SUP: $-0.57SMA50: $1.41SMA200: $1.54
$3.77$2.93$2.08$1.23$0.39RES $1.88SUP $-0.57$0.662026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

LVWR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -3.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LVWR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LVWR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LVWR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LVWR)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #990 of 1011 ⚔️ FOXF vs LVWR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (LVWR vs. FOXF, HOG, INEO, LKQ)

Industry: Motor Vehicles (8 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) ranks #990 by composite RQD confidence (20/100, grade E) and #705 by equity capitalization ($184.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, LKQ leads on earnings valuation at 7.5x trailing P/E, while HOG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.0% ROIC and 23.9% gross margin. HOG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with LVWR at 20/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
LVWR ACTIVE
LiveWire Group Inc.
E 20/100 — -17.3% -35.0% -26.67% $184.9M Benchmark Subject
FOXF
Fox Factory Holding Corp.
D- 39/100 — 30.2% -35.0% -2.08% $686.4M /foxf-vs-lvwr →
HOG
Harley-Davidson Inc.
B 75/100 9.3x 23.9% 18.0% +2.93% $3.16B /hog-vs-lvwr →
INEO
INNEOVA Holdings Limited (Class A)
D 44/100 — 19.2% -1.0% -7.00% $9.2M /ineo-vs-lvwr →
LKQ
LKQ Corporation
D+ 56/100 7.5x 38.6% 8.5% +2.54% $4.58B /lkq-vs-lvwr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001898795

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) reported GAAP revenue of $25.7M (-3.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $26.6M , and -32.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$75.1M, operating cash flow of -$53.5M, and free cash flow of -$57.4M (+43.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, LVWR closed FY2025 with $146.4M in total assets against $74.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $25.7M -$75.1M -$53.5M -$57.4M $146.4M $74.2M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $26.6M -$93.9M -$93.9M -$101.9M $148.0M $0
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $38.0M -$109.5M -$83.5M -$83.5M — —

3. LVWR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is LVWR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, LiveWire Group Inc. (NYSE: LVWR) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 20/100 at a spot price of $0.66 (-26.67% 1D, market cap $184.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, LVWR ranks #990 in composite RQD confidence.

How does LVWR compare to FOXF and HOG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Motor Vehicles), LVWR carries a Roarable E (20/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -17.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, FOXF (Fox Factory Holding Corp.) holds a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $686.4M) and HOG (Harley-Davidson Inc.) posts a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 9.3x, ROIC 18.0%, cap $3.16B). Among the 5-stock peer group, LKQ leads on earnings multiple (7.5x) while HOG leads on capital efficiency (18.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LVWR?

Per LVWR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001898795), LiveWire Group Inc. generated $25.7M in revenue (-3.6% YoY), -$75.1M in net income, and -$57.4M in free cash flow against $146.4M in total assets and $74.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is LVWR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

LVWR last traded at $0.66 (-26.67% on volume of 660,103 shares), positioning the stock -53.19% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.41) and -57.14% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.54). Across its 52-week range of $0.65 to $5.51, LVWR sits at the 0.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.74).

LVWR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is LVWR's 12-month stock price target?

LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $0.55 (-16.7% from $0.66), with a bull-case target of $5.79 and a bear-case floor of $0.43.

Is LVWR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates LVWR E (Strong Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 20/100.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 20/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

LVWR — LiveWire Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:41:40Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, LVWR carries an RQD Score of 20 with a letter grade of E, labeled "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 5 / 20. Reported ROIC is -35% and FCF yield is 0%. For a prospective investor, this means the business is not currently generating returns on capital or free cash flow that would support valuation on cash-flow grounds.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 3 / 20. The pillar reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. Per the source, it scores weakly, so institutional flow offers little support to the thesis.
  • Insider Conviction: 3 / 20. The pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The weak score indicates insider and disclosed-trader activity is not a source of confidence.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 4 / 20. Beta is 1.0 and the pillar cites sector sensitivity. The stock's exposure to market and sector moves is not offset by a favorable regime read in the source.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 5 / 20. Altman Z is 0.2, Piotroski F is 3/9, and Debt/Equity is 1.61. These metrics point to elevated distress and balance-sheet risk.

Investor implications: upside drivers within the source data are limited to a depressed share price (price 0.9, down -43.74%) that could in principle reverse; however, the forensic and cash-engine pillars make valuation hard to anchor, and the negative margins (operating -60%, net -60%, gross -17.3%) mean a recovery case is not evidenced in the data. The rating is an analytical assessment, not personalized advice.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$25.7M$-75.5M$-75.1MN/A$-57.4M$82.8M$74.2M
FY 2024$26.6M$-110.4M$-93.9MN/A$-101.9M$64.4M$0.0M
FY 2023$38.0M$-116.0M$-109.5MN/A$-83.5MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue fell from $38.0M (FY 2023) to $25.7M (FY 2025) while operating losses persisted in every reported period. Per the Market Data section, operating margin is -60% and net margin is -60%. ROIC is -35%, per the Roarable RQD rating and market data. Altman Z-Score is 0.2 and Piotroski F-Score is 3/9, per the Roarable RQD forensic pillar. Debt/Equity is 1.61 per the same pillar, and FY 2025 cash of $82.8M exceeds reported debt of $74.2M per the SEC financials.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the Recent News & Catalysts feed:

  • RISK WATCH (RED): A Seeking Alpha report headlined that the company "warns that it may not survive," published 1h before the data timestamp.
  • RISK WATCH (RED): A Simply Wall St report tied the stock decline to Q3 earnings and restructuring fears.
  • MARKET WIRE (YELLOW): Items from Stock Titan, Moomoo, kalkine.ca, and MarketBeat cover market action, including a report that the stock broke below its 200-day moving average and a report describing the stock as under pressure before third-quarter earnings.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, sector is Consumer Discretionary, industry is Motor Vehicles, supply chain is NONE, butterfly links are empty, and proprietary signals are empty.

Open Questions

  • What is the company's cash runway given FY 2025 FCF of $-57.4M against cash of $82.8M, and what does the "may not survive" warning rest on?
  • What are the specific terms, timing, and scope of the restructuring referenced in the news feed?
  • What are the drivers behind the revenue decline from $38.0M (FY 2023) to $25.7M (FY 2025)?
  • Why are P/E, EPS, and EV/EBITDA unavailable, and what valuation basis applies given negative earnings?
  • What is the composition and maturity of the $74.2M debt balance?

LVWR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to LVWR Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

LVWR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $0.66?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON LVWR 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on LVWR:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.79 (-12.2%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is LVWR (E • RQD 20/100) a Buy at $0.90?

Welcome to the LVWR (LiveWire Group Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 20/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Motor Vehicles. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

VA ValDiscipline Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.70 (-22.2%)
Spot @ $0.90

Pump the brakes on LVWR — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on LVWR, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with -17.3% gross margins. Unless LiveWire Group Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $1.08 (+20.0%)
Spot @ $0.90

LVWR cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on LVWR, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Motor Vehicles and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $0.90 (52-wk range $0.65 - $5.51), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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