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Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$643.15 +0.97% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $645.82

Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (10.2% gross margin, 26% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $147.14B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is LMT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE: LMT) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $643.15 (+0.97% 1D, market cap $147.14B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, LMT ranks #34 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does LMT compare to TDG and FER in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Military/Government/Technical), LMT carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 29.6x, gross margin of 10.2%, and ROIC of 26.4%. By comparison, TDG (Transdigm Group Incorporated) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 31.3x, ROIC 63.3%, cap $63.39B) and FER (Ferrovial N.V.) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $39.78B). Among the 5-stock peer group, LMT leads on earnings multiple (29.6x) while TDG leads on capital efficiency (63.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LMT?
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Per LMT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000936468), Lockheed Martin Corporation generated $75.05B in revenue (+5.6% YoY), $5.02B in net income, and $5.18B in free cash flow against $59.84B in total assets and $20.53B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (10.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $645.79 (+0.41%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) • 6.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-
025507510070
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A- · Rk D+
Cash (19)Whales (16)SEC (12)Macro (9)CEO (14)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.4% Base Target
$800 Bull$678 Base$527 Bear
📬 FREE LMT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LMT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (70/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY LMT SCORES 70/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 6.9% FCF Margin ($5.18B FCF) & 10.2% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±5.7% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (72.7) create a -11 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
62
Grade C+$522.23+5.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
65
Grade C+$551.51+14.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
67
Grade B-$629.75+2.1% Next Q
Current
70
Grade B-$643.15+6.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C+ (62) → B- (70)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the LMT Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 70/100 (B-) score, LMT faces multiple-compression risk if 29.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($548.90) or 200D SMA ($569.35) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($677.88) toward Bear Floor ($527.38).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LMT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “LMT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 70%NO 30%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your LMT Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $643.15: 15.5 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $527.38
$8,200
$-1,800 (-18.0%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $677.88
$10,540
+$540 (+5.4%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $799.90
$12,437
+$2,437 (+24.4%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (34 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 23● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskOUTPERFORM$70574%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$75269%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$60358%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (LMT Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
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LMT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +24.12%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $643.6H $643.6L $637.0C $643.2VOL 1.87M
RES: $659.6SUP: $500.3SMA50: $548.9SMA200: $569.4
$668.9$619.6$570.4$521.1$471.9RES $659.6SUP $500.3$643.22026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

LMT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 LMT Butterfly Map → + Track LMT →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
22.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LMT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →
PLTR → LMT Confirmed Filing
Palantir Gotham/AIP and Maven Smart System software integrate with Lockheed Martin combat management systems (including Aegis/maritime modernization) under DoD CJADC2 software-defined warfare budgets.
RTX → LMT Confirmed Filing
RTX Pratt & Whitney manufactures the sole-source F135 propulsion system (and Engine Core Upgrade) plus Raytheon sensors/weapons integrated onto Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II aircraft.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video 💡 Defense & Space Procurement Shift: Verified DoD Obligations vs. Backlog Multiples (Iona Brackenford) 💡 Starter Kit: Defense Modernization & Space Procurement (Iona Brackenford) 🏛️ PROPOSAL: Bipartisan Grid Permitting Reform, NRC SMR Brownfield Siting & Multi-Year Munitions Bill Draft (U.S. Senate Energy & Natural Resources / Armed Services Committees (119th Congress)) 🏛️ ACTUAL_SPENDING: Pentagon Munitions Replenishment, PAC-3 MSE Interceptor & Virginia-Class Submarine Prime Lots (Department of Defense (Missile Defense Agency & Naval Sea Systems Command))
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LMT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LMT)

Industrials Rank #34 of 486 ⚔️ TDG vs LMT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (LMT vs. TDG, FER, ESLT, RKLB)

Industry: Military/Government/Technical (43 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) ranks #34 by composite RQD confidence (70/100, grade B-) and #7 by equity capitalization ($147.14B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, LMT leads on earnings valuation at 29.6x trailing P/E, while TDG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 63.3% ROIC and 60.1% gross margin. LMT currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 70/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
LMT ACTIVE
Lockheed Martin Corporation
B- 70/100 29.6x 10.2% 26.4% +0.97% $147.14B Benchmark Subject
TDG
Transdigm Group Incorporated
C- 60/100 31.3x 60.1% 63.3% +5.83% $63.39B /tdg-vs-lmt →
FER
Ferrovial N.V.
D+ 56/100 32.8x — 9.9% +3.36% $39.78B /fer-vs-lmt →
ESLT
Elbit Systems Ltd.
B- 70/100 70.3x 24.4% 15.1% -4.77% $36.26B /eslt-vs-lmt →
RKLB
Rocket Lab Corporation
D- 37/100 — 34.4% -6.1% -4.86% $34.36B /rklb-vs-lmt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000936468 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) reported GAAP revenue of $75.05B (+5.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $71.04B , and +11.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $5.02B, operating cash flow of $8.56B, and free cash flow of $5.18B (+37.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, LMT closed FY2025 with $59.84B in total assets against $20.53B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.73, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $75.05B $5.02B $8.56B $5.18B $59.84B $20.53B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $71.04B $5.34B $6.97B $3.78B $55.62B $19.63B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $67.57B $6.92B $7.92B $4.88B $81.77B $19.13B

3. LMT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is LMT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE: LMT) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $643.15 (+0.97% 1D, market cap $147.14B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, LMT ranks #34 in composite RQD confidence.

How does LMT compare to TDG and FER in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Military/Government/Technical), LMT carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 29.6x, gross margin of 10.2%, and ROIC of 26.4%. By comparison, TDG (Transdigm Group Incorporated) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 31.3x, ROIC 63.3%, cap $63.39B) and FER (Ferrovial N.V.) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $39.78B). Among the 5-stock peer group, LMT leads on earnings multiple (29.6x) while TDG leads on capital efficiency (63.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LMT?

Per LMT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000936468), Lockheed Martin Corporation generated $75.05B in revenue (+5.6% YoY), $5.02B in net income, and $5.18B in free cash flow against $59.84B in total assets and $20.53B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (10.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is LMT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

LMT last traded at $643.15 (+0.97% on volume of 1,560,071 shares), positioning the stock +17.17% above its 50-day simple moving average ($548.90) and +12.96% above its 200-day simple moving average ($569.35). Across its 52-week range of $437.25 to $692.00, LMT sits at the 80.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 72.7 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.7% ($606.49 to $679.81).

Direct Sub-Reports: LMT RQD Cockpit LMT 12M Forecast LMT Earnings & Move LMT Dividends & DRIP LMT Insiders & 13F LMT Whale Options LMT Profit Sankey LMT News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 70/100 (B-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

LMT — Lockheed Martin Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 70/100, corresponding to a B- letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $643.15 (+0.97% 1D, market capitalization $147.14B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (19/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 26.4%, gross margin of 10.2%, operating margin of 10.3%, and free cash flow yield of 3.48%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (16/20) + Insider Conviction (14/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 1.11x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.73, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 3.05x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, operating in the Military/Government/Technical industry. — for product-level detail, customer breakdown, or revenue mix beyond the supply-chain graph references.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) reported $75.05B in annual revenue (up from $71.04B in FY2024, +5.6% YoY) and $5.02B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($67.57B revenue, $6.92B net income) through FY2025, LMT scaled operating cash flow to $8.56B and free cash flow to $5.18B, backed by $59.84B in total assets against $20.53B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B- • RQD 70/100): Strong cash generator (10.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 19/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 16/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $437.25 – $692.00 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 29.6x trailing P/E and 15.6x EV/EBITDA against 10.3% operating margins and a 1.11x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Per the butterfly graph, the sector is Industrials and the supply chain is listed as "NONE" at the sector level, but two specific links exist. Upstream, RTX Pratt & Whitney is described as the sole-source supplier of the F135 engine, and the source notes that titanium forgings, specialty castings, and TR-3 / Block 4 software certification gate final F-35 delivery acceptance and progress payments. A bottleneck in these inputs would affect LMT's revenue timing. Downstream/lateral, Palantir software integration into LMT combat management systems is described as a policy-dependency tailwind. The graph identifies a competing explanation in which open-architecture mandates could let other defense-tech primes plug into government data layers, potentially fragmenting software economics. Per the graph, the F-35 exposure is estimated at approximately 26% of consolidated revenue, and Palantir's government revenue share is approximately 55%. Investors should watch whether Pentagon budget reallocation toward Collaborative Combat Aircraft could cap long-term F-35 domestic lot sizes.

  • Key Question #1: Can LMT sustain or expand its 10.3% operating margin and 26.4% ROIC against Military/Government/Technical peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $75.05B and free cash flow of $5.18B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $20.53B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is LMT's 27.5x forward P/E multiple to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.11x)?

LMT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to LMT Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

LMT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $643.15?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON LMT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on LMT:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $828.03 (+30.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

ROIC of 26.4% and a fundamental cash-engine pillar score of 19 of 20 indicate strong capital efficiency.

Here is why I am bullish on LMT here at $636.95: ROIC of 26.4% and a fundamental cash-engine pillar score of 19 of 20 indicate strong capital efficiency.. Compare LMT's 10.3% operating margin and 26.4% ROIC against the rest of Military/Government/Technical. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $605.10 are getting bought.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — LMT's 12/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $522.30 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $636.95

Net income fell from $6.92B in FY 2023 to $5.02B in FY 2025 while the stock trades at a P/E (TTM) of 29.6.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short LMT above $636.95. Net income fell from $6.92B in FY 2023 to $5.02B in FY 2025 while the stock trades at a P/E (TTM) of 29.6.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (19/20) and FCF yield (3.48%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $692.00.

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