LKQ Corporation (LKQ) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Per the Roarable RQD rating, LKQ scores 56 out of 100, a letter grade of D+, with the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars are:

• Fundamental Cash Engine: 11 / 20. The rating cites ROIC of 8.5% and an FCF yield of 9.8%. ROIC above a company's cost of capital is typically what separates value creation from value erosion, so this pillar's middling score reflects returns that are positive but not strong. The 9.8% FCF yield is the more supportive datapoint for a value-oriented reader, because it indicates meaningful cash generation relative to market value.
• Whale 13F Flow: 5 / 20. This is the weakest pillar and reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. A low score here suggests limited evidence of large holders building positions, which removes one potential source of near-term price support.
• Insider Conviction: 17 / 20. This is the strongest pillar, based on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Strong insider signals can indicate management or insiders view the shares as attractively priced, though the source data does not detail the specific transactions.
• Macro Regime Fit: 9 / 20. The rating cites a beta of 1.06 and sector sensitivity. A beta near 1 means the stock has been roughly as volatile as the market, so it offers no defensive cushion and no special leverage to a rising market.
• Forensic Balance Sheet: 14 / 20. The rating cites an Altman Z-Score of 2.4, a Piotroski F-Score of 7 of 9, and Debt/Equity of 0.47. These are mixed-to-sound readings: a Piotroski score of 7 out of 9 points to reasonable financial health, while a Z-Score of 2.4 sits in a range that is often treated as a caution zone rather than a clear safety signal.

Taken together, the rating frames LKQ as a stock with a credible cash-generation profile and strong insider signals, offset by weak institutional flow, a beta-neutral macro profile, and modest returns on capital. For a prospective investor evaluating the stock at a price of 18.1, the valuation tradeoff is visible in the market data: P/E of 7.5 and EV/EBITDA of 4.8 look inexpensive on their face, but the rating's grade signals that the market and the rating model are weighing weak fundamentals against those low multiples. Upside drivers in the data are the insider signal and FCF yield; the main drag is the low whale flow score and the company's modest ROIC.

Per the SEC financials, revenue moved from $13269.0M in FY 2023 to $13823.0M in FY 2024 and then to $13651.0M in FY 2025, while operating income declined each year over the period, from $1324.0M to $1145.0M to $993.0M. Net income fell from $938.0M to $608.0M across the same span. Per the market data, gross margin is 38.6%, operating margin is 7.3%, net margin is 4.5%, and ROIC is 8.5%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.4, the Piotroski F-Score is 7 of 9, and Debt/Equity is 0.47. Reported debt declined from $3725.9M in FY 2023 to $3542.1M in FY 2025.

Per the recent news feed, the headlines include a Yahoo Finance report titled "Is LKQ (LKQ) Still A Bargain After A 53% Slide?" (green light, catalyst), a CNN item with the generic headline "symbol__ Stock Quote Price and Forecast" (yellow, market wire), a Seeking Alpha piece on a possible buying opportunity following the decline, and a Yahoo Finance headline reporting the stock fell 10% on weak Q3 results and a CEO departure (yellow, market wire). Additional items include a Fortune Q1 2026 earnings call transcript and an RVBusiness release announcing results for the 3rd quarter 2026. The "53% slide" reference and the 10% decline on weak Q3 results with a CEO departure are the main risk watch items. The CEO departure is a governance and continuity question the feed does not resolve. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no proprietary signals or butterfly links are recorded.

• What drove the decline in operating income and net income across FY 2023 to FY 2025, and is the trend continuing into the most recent quarter?
• What are the terms and timing of the CEO departure referenced in the news feed, and who is succeeding?
• What is the revenue and profit breakdown by business segment, and which segments account for the margin compression?
• What specific insider transactions underlie the Insider Conviction pillar score of 17 / 20?
• What is the company's cost of capital, so that the 8.5% ROIC can be assessed against it?