Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
As of 2026-11-02, Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: LITE) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $840.70 (-8.57% 1D, market cap $83.29B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 132 tracked Communication Services issuers, LITE ranks #17 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Communication Services sector (Telecommunications Equipment), LITE carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 41.7%, and ROIC of 6.2%. By comparison, AMX (America Movil S.A.B. de C.V. American) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $72.63B) and T (AT&T Inc.) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 6.4x, ROIC 6.7%, cap $140.93B). Among the 5-stock peer group, T leads on earnings multiple (6.4x) while TMUS leads on capital efficiency (10.7% ROIC).
Per LITE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-06-27, CIK 0001633978), Lumentum Holdings Inc. generated $3.01B in revenue (+83.2% YoY), -$6.94B in net income, and $300.1M in free cash flow against $4.81B in total assets and $47.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 10% FCF Margin ($300.1M FCF) & 41.7% Gross Margin
Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 11 pts from alignment
Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, LITE faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 39.2% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($925.75) or 200D SMA ($807.03) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($870.97) toward Bear Floor ($679.36).
Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) dropped -8.57% to $840.70, trading at 68% of its 52-week range ($184.2 – $1143). Solid 42% profit margin (6% return on capital), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
Yahoo Finance report covering Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Trefis report covering Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Reuters report covering Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Barchart.com report covering Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Investing.com report covering Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) is acquiring Lumentum Holdings (NASDAQ:LITE). The all-stock agreement is reshaping the map of AI data center optics, and both companies are sliding as the market considers the price. Shar
Marvell Technology on Monday announced a deal to buy Lumentum in an all-stock transaction worth $115 billion.
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +83.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LITE today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LITE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 132 tracked Communication Services securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) ranks #17 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #10 by equity capitalization ($83.29B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, T leads on earnings valuation at 6.4x trailing P/E, while TMUS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.7% ROIC and — gross margin. LITE currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 66/100 (C+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LITE
ACTIVE
Lumentum Holdings Inc. | C+ | 66/100 | — | 41.7% | 6.2% | -8.57% | $83.29B | Benchmark Subject |
| AMX America Movil S.A.B. de C.V. American | C- | 60/100 | 32.8x | — | 9.9% | +1.45% | $72.63B | /amx-vs-lite → |
| T AT&T Inc. | D+ | 55/100 | 6.4x | — | 6.7% | +2.34% | $140.93B | /t-vs-lite → |
| TMUS T-Mobile US Inc. | D+ | 53/100 | 14.2x | — | 10.7% | +6.21% | $156.02B | /tmus-vs-lite → |
| VZ Verizon Communications Inc. | D+ | 57/100 | 10.3x | — | 8.5% | +2.45% | $181.40B | /vz-vs-lite → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-06-27), Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) reported GAAP revenue of $3.01B (+83.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.65B , and +70.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$6.94B, operating cash flow of $751.4M, and free cash flow of $300.1M (+386.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, LITE closed FY2025 with $4.81B in total assets against $47.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 13.01, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2026-06-27 | $3.01B | -$6.94B | $751.4M | $300.1M | $4.81B | $47.1M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2025-06-28 | $1.65B | $25.9M | $126.3M | -$104.7M | $3.97B | $2.56B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-07-01 | $1.77B | -$131.6M | $179.8M | $100.3M | $45.81B | $10.72B |
As of 2026-11-02, Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: LITE) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $840.70 (-8.57% 1D, market cap $83.29B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 132 tracked Communication Services issuers, LITE ranks #17 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Communication Services sector (Telecommunications Equipment), LITE carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 41.7%, and ROIC of 6.2%. By comparison, AMX (America Movil S.A.B. de C.V. American) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $72.63B) and T (AT&T Inc.) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 6.4x, ROIC 6.7%, cap $140.93B). Among the 5-stock peer group, T leads on earnings multiple (6.4x) while TMUS leads on capital efficiency (10.7% ROIC).
Per LITE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-06-27, CIK 0001633978), Lumentum Holdings Inc. generated $3.01B in revenue (+83.2% YoY), -$6.94B in net income, and $300.1M in free cash flow against $4.81B in total assets and $47.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
LITE last traded at $840.70 (-8.57% on volume of 7,733,798 shares), positioning the stock -9.19% below its 50-day simple moving average ($925.75) and +4.17% above its 200-day simple moving average ($807.03). Across its 52-week range of $184.20 to $1,143.00, LITE sits at the 68.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($735.61 to $945.79).
Why LITE Stock dropped -8.57% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid 42% profit margin (6% return on capital), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
Per the Roarable RQD rating, LITE scores 66 out of 100 with a letter grade of C+ and a verdict of "Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 (ROIC 6.2%; FCF yield 0.36%); Whale 13F Flow at 15/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction at 9/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit at 14/20 (Beta 1.08; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet at 14/20 (Altman Z 13.01; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 0.06).
For a prospective investor, the profile is mixed. The strongest pillar is institutional flow, while insider conviction is the weakest, which suggests insiders are not visibly adding exposure. The cash engine score is held back by a very low FCF yield, meaning the price paid relative to free cash generated is high. The balance sheet pillar is comparatively supportive, reflecting low leverage and a strong Altman Z reading. The verdict's "Watch for Breakout" language signals the rating framework sees potential for a change in stance but does not currently justify an upgrade. Upside drivers would be sustained growth in FCF and improving returns on capital; valuation tradeoffs are evident in the elevated forward P/E and EV/EBITDA relative to the reported cash generation.
| Period | Revenue | Operating Income | Net Income | EPS | FCF | Cash | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | $3014.0M | $524.8M | $-6935.1M | N/A | $300.1M | $657.7M | $47.1M |
| FY 2024 | $1645.0M | $-180.1M | $25.9M | N/A | $-104.7M | $479.7M | $2561.2M |
| FY 2023 | $1767.0M | $-115.7M | $-131.6M | N/A | $100.3M | N/A | $10719.9M |
Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $1645.0M in FY 2024 to $3014.0M in FY 2025, and operating income moved from $-180.1M to $524.8M. FY 2025 net income is $-6935.1M, a figure far below operating income, and the source does not explain the gap. Net margin is listed at -60% in the market data. Per the RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 13.01 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, and debt-to-equity is 0.06. ROIC is 6.2%.
Per the recent news section, the headlines include: a GREEN-flagged catalyst piece referencing production bottlenecks; a RED-flagged "RISK WATCH" item questioning the stock's risk profile; a YELLOW market-wire report of a reported $115 billion acquisition deal involving Marvell in an AI data-center context; a GREEN catalyst report describing late-stage acquisition talks; and YELLOW market-wire items on the day's surge and long-term investment case. The acquisition reports are the dominant theme, and their status is unverified in the source. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, there are no supply-chain links or proprietary signals recorded.
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Yahoo Finance report covering Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Trefis report covering Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Reuters report covering Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Barchart.com report covering Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Investing.com report covering Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Welcome to the LITE (Lumentum Holdings Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 66/100 (Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout) in Telecommunications Equipment. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on LITE, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 41.7% gross margins. Unless Lumentum Holdings Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on LITE, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Telecommunications Equipment and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $919.53 (52-wk range $184.20 - $1143.00), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.
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