Stock Ratings / Industrials / KALU / options

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Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$116.28 -2.96% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $115.44

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 49/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.90B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on KALU Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is KALU stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (NASDAQ: KALU) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $116.28 (-2.96% 1D, market cap $1.90B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, KALU ranks #235 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does KALU compare to HLIO and PRLB in the Industrials sector?

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Within the Industrials sector (Metal Fabrications), KALU carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.3x, gross margin of 13.1%, and ROIC of 7.9%. By comparison, HLIO (Helios Technologies Inc.) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 46.5x, ROIC 4.7%, cap $2.18B) and PRLB (Proto Labs Inc.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E 87.4x, ROIC 3.5%, cap $1.64B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KALU leads on earnings multiple (17.3x) while KALU leads on capital efficiency (7.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for KALU?

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Per KALU's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000811596), Kaiser Aluminum Corporation generated $3.37B in revenue (+11.5% YoY), $113.0M in net income, and $111.4M in free cash flow against $2.56B in total assets and $1.06B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $115.44 (-0.72%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 3.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for KALU)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (49/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY KALU SCORES 49/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (31% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.70 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$151.81+0.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$152.54-23.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$116.25+0% Next Q

Current

Grade D$116.28-5.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (57) → D (49)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a KALU Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While KALU currently carries a cautious 49/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($147.11) and Max Pain ($122.09) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $209.88.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $KALU• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “KALU Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 49%NO 51%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±9.7%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (KALU)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for KALU.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring KALU)

✓Walkthrough of KALU's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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KALU // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -31.37%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-03O $119.8H $119.8L $116.3C $116.3VOL 459.3K

RES: $206.4SUP: $99.63SMA50: $147.1SMA200: $153.2

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

KALU Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 KALU Butterfly Map → + Track KALU →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

10.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +11.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on KALU today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for KALU. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for KALU today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (KALU)

Industrials Rank #235 of 485 ⚔️ HLIO vs KALU Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (KALU vs. HLIO, PRLB, RYZ, SMR)

Industry: Metal Fabrications (47 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) ranks #235 by composite RQD confidence (49/100, grade D) and #212 by equity capitalization ($1.90B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KALU leads on earnings valuation at 17.3x trailing P/E, while KALU leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.9% ROIC and 13.1% gross margin. RYZ currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 54/100 (D+) compared with KALU at 49/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
KALU ACTIVE Kaiser Aluminum Corporation	D	49/100	17.3x	13.1%	7.9%	-2.96%	$1.90B	Benchmark Subject
HLIO Helios Technologies Inc.	D+	52/100	46.5x	32.3%	4.7%	-3.09%	$2.18B	/hlio-vs-kalu →
PRLB Proto Labs Inc.	D	45/100	87.4x	44.5%	3.5%	-11.27%	$1.64B	/prlb-vs-kalu →
RYZ Ryerson Holding Corporation	D+	54/100	—	17.1%	-3.4%	+0.48%	$1.61B	/ryz-vs-kalu →
SMR NuScale Power Corporation	E	26/100	—	36.3%	-35.0%	-5.07%	$2.42B	/smr-vs-kalu →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000811596

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) reported GAAP revenue of $3.37B (+11.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.02B , and +9.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $113.0M, operating cash flow of $111.4M, and free cash flow of $111.4M (-33.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, KALU closed FY2025 with $2.56B in total assets against $1.06B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.70, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$3.37B	$113.0M	$111.4M	$111.4M	$2.56B	$1.06B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$3.02B	$47.0M	$167.1M	$167.1M	$2.41B	$1.04B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$3.09B	$47.0M	$211.9M	$211.9M	—	—

3. KALU Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is KALU stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does KALU compare to HLIO and PRLB in the Industrials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for KALU?

Where is KALU trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

KALU last traded at $116.28 (-2.96% on volume of 459,265 shares), positioning the stock -20.96% below its 50-day simple moving average ($147.11) and -24.10% below its 200-day simple moving average ($153.21). Across its 52-week range of $88.00 to $199.89, KALU sits at the 25.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.7% ($105.00 to $127.56).

KALU Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is KALU's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for KALU.

Direct Sub-Reports: KALU RQD Cockpit KALU 12M Forecast KALU Earnings & Move KALU Dividends & DRIP KALU Insiders & 13F KALU Whale Options KALU Profit Sankey KALU News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 49/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

KALU — Kaiser Aluminum Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:27:13Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, KALU scores 50 out of 100, a letter grade of D, labeled "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20 (ROIC 7.9%; FCF yield 5.69%), Whale 13F Flow 5/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction 15/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit 8/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet 12/20 (Altman Z 2.7; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 1.28). For a prospective investor, the weakest pillars are institutional flow and macro/sector fit, which together suggest the rating's distribution warning is driven more by positioning and cyclicality than by balance-sheet distress. The strongest pillar, insider conviction, is the one signal in the rating that leans constructive. The rating frames the stock as a poor relative-value candidate today, not as a company in acute financial stress.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
119.83	$1.96B	17.3	16.1	16	6.91	2.62%	1.0	$87.89 - $199.89	7.9%

Business

Per the profile, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, operating in the Metal Fabrications industry. The source data does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model beyond this classification. Reported financials show a revenue base of $3373.0M for FY 2025, indicating a sizable manufacturing-scale operation.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$3373.0M	$188.8M	$113.0M	N/A	$111.4M	$7.0M	$1059.6M
FY 2024	$3024.0M	$112.2M	$47.0M	N/A	$167.1M	$18.4M	$1041.6M
FY 2023	$3087.0M	$122.5M	$47.0M	N/A	$211.9M	N/A	N/A

Per the market data, gross margin is 13.1%, operating margin 5.6%, and net margin 3.4%, with ROIC at 7.9%. Per the RQD pillars, the Altman Z-Score is 2.7 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, with Debt/Equity at 1.28. Reported free cash flow declined from $211.9M in FY 2023 to $111.4M in FY 2025 while debt rose from $1041.6M to $1059.6M over FY 2024–FY 2025, and year-end cash was $7.0M in FY 2025. Net income improved from $47.0M to $113.0M across the same period.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Earnings reaction: A headline tagged RISK WATCH reports KALU missed Q3 earnings estimates (RED signal). A separate CATALYST headline references a J.P. Morgan upgrade following post-earnings weakness (GREEN signal).
Results coverage: A Stock Titan headline reports sales rose to $1.21 billion while net income fell to $31 million (YELLOW signal). This figure reflects a quarterly report and is not reconciled to the annual financials above.
Market wire: Multiple YELLOW-tagged items (Yahoo! Finance Canada, TradingView, MarketBeat) provide general market action and analyst-focus coverage without specific catalysts.
Butterfly graph: The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

What are the company's specific products, customers, and end markets within Metal Fabrications?
What drove the decline in free cash flow from $211.9M (FY 2023) to $111.4M (FY 2025) despite higher net income?
What is the composition of the $1059.6M debt and its maturity profile, given $7.0M in year-end cash?
What were the EPS figures for each reported fiscal year, since the financials show EPS as N/A?
Which specific institutional, insider, and options flows underpin the whale and insider pillar scores?

KALU Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to KALU Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 18h ago

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) Stock Price, News, Quote & History

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Seeking Alpha • 21h ago

Kaiser Aluminum upgraded at J.P. Morgan following post-earnings weakness (KALU:NASDAQ)

Seeking Alpha report covering Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation Estimates – NASDAQ:KALU

TradingView report covering Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) Misses Q3 Earnings Estimates

Yahoo Finance report covering Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

Sales rose to $1.21 billion, but Kaiser Aluminum's net income fell to $31 million.

Stock Titan report covering Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) - What Are Analysts Thinking About This Stock?

MarketBeat report covering Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Business Wire • 1d ago

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation Announces Quarterly Dividend Payment

Business Wire report covering Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Kaiser Aluminum: A 30% Crash Creates A Buying Opportunity (Rating Upgrade)

Seeking Alpha report covering Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

KALU Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $116.28?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON KALU 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $129.42 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is KALU (D • RQD 50/100) a Buy at $119.83?

Welcome to the KALU (Kaiser Aluminum Corporation) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 50/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Metal Fabrications. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $95.86 (-20.0%)

Spot @ $119.83

Pump the brakes on KALU — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on KALU, but look at what you are paying: 17.3x trailing P/E with 13.1% gross margins. Unless Kaiser Aluminum Corporation expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $147.39 (+23.0%)

Spot @ $119.83

KALU cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on KALU, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Metal Fabrications and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $119.83 (52-wk range $87.89 - $199.89), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.