Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±4.3% Move

$43.74 -2.60% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $43.45

Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $4.77B
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is IRDM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Iridium Communications Inc (NASDAQ: IRDM) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $43.74 (-2.60% 1D, market cap $4.77B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, IRDM ranks #170 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does IRDM compare to CALX and VSAT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Telecommunications Equipment), IRDM carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 42.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 50.9%. By comparison, CALX (Calix Inc) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 134.9x, ROIC 2.3%, cap $2.32B) and VSAT (ViaSat Inc.) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.1%, cap $10.61B). Among the 5-stock peer group, IRDM leads on earnings multiple (42.7x) while IRDM leads on capital efficiency (50.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for IRDM?
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Per IRDM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001418819), Iridium Communications Inc generated $871.7M in revenue (+4.9% YoY), $114.4M in net income, and $299.8M in free cash flow against $2.53B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 43x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $43.45 (-0.66%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 34.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510069
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk B
Cash (16)Whales (9)SEC (14)Macro (15)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5% Base Target
$60 Bull$46 Base$36 Bear
📬 FREE IRDM RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for IRDM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY IRDM SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 34.4% FCF Margin ($299.8M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 68% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 43.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
77
Grade B+$46.73-6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
74
Grade B+$43.94+3.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
72
Grade B$45.65-4.2% Next Q
Current
69
Grade C+$43.74+2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B+ (77) → C+ (69)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the IRDM Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, IRDM faces multiple-compression risk if 42.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 43x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($46.78) or 200D SMA ($40.04) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($45.91) toward Bear Floor ($35.81).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $IRDM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “IRDM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±4.3% Swing Band

±$1.88 Expected Swing
$41.86 (-4.3%)Spot $43.74$45.62 (+4.3%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

IRDM Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 69/100

Trailing EPS: $1.08 • YoY Revenue Growth: 4.9%

Model Bullish Setup (69/100)Model Risk Weight (31/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$871.7M$114.4M$299.8M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$830.7M$112.8M$306.1M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$790.7M$15.4M$314.9M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating IRDM & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on IRDM
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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IRDM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +9.65%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $46.05H $46.05L $43.74C $43.74VOL 380.2K
RES: $48.88SUP: $42.50SMA50: $46.78SMA200: $40.04
$59.58$49.62$39.66$29.70$19.74RES $48.88SUP $42.50$43.742026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

IRDM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
32.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on IRDM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for IRDM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for IRDM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (IRDM)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #170 of 1011 ⚔️ CALX vs IRDM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (IRDM vs. CALX, VSAT, GSAT, ASTS)

Industry: Telecommunications Equipment (81 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM) ranks #170 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #278 by equity capitalization ($4.77B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, IRDM leads on earnings valuation at 42.7x trailing P/E, while IRDM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 50.9% ROIC and — gross margin. IRDM currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
IRDM ACTIVE
Iridium Communications Inc
C+ 69/100 42.7x — 50.9% -2.60% $4.77B Benchmark Subject
CALX
Calix Inc
D 49/100 134.9x 56.8% 2.3% -1.87% $2.32B /calx-vs-irdm →
VSAT
ViaSat Inc.
C- 60/100 — — 1.1% -3.78% $10.61B /vsat-vs-irdm →
GSAT
Globalstar Inc.
C- 61/100 — — 0.7% +0.78% $10.66B /gsat-vs-irdm →
ASTS
AST SpaceMobile Inc.
E 34/100 — — -14.6% -11.32% $15.94B /asts-vs-irdm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001418819

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM) reported GAAP revenue of $871.7M (+4.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $830.7M , and +10.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $114.4M, operating cash flow of $400.1M, and free cash flow of $299.8M (-2.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, IRDM closed FY2025 with $2.53B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.92, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $871.7M $114.4M $400.1M $299.8M $2.53B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $830.7M $112.8M $376.0M $306.1M $2.67B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $790.7M $15.4M $314.9M $314.9M — —

3. IRDM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is IRDM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Iridium Communications Inc (NASDAQ: IRDM) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $43.74 (-2.60% 1D, market cap $4.77B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, IRDM ranks #170 in composite RQD confidence.

How does IRDM compare to CALX and VSAT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Telecommunications Equipment), IRDM carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 42.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 50.9%. By comparison, CALX (Calix Inc) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 134.9x, ROIC 2.3%, cap $2.32B) and VSAT (ViaSat Inc.) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.1%, cap $10.61B). Among the 5-stock peer group, IRDM leads on earnings multiple (42.7x) while IRDM leads on capital efficiency (50.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for IRDM?

Per IRDM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001418819), Iridium Communications Inc generated $871.7M in revenue (+4.9% YoY), $114.4M in net income, and $299.8M in free cash flow against $2.53B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 43x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is IRDM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

IRDM last traded at $43.74 (-2.60% on volume of 638,679 shares), positioning the stock -6.50% below its 50-day simple moving average ($46.78) and +9.24% above its 200-day simple moving average ($40.04). Across its 52-week range of $15.65 to $57.18, IRDM sits at the 67.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.3% ($41.86 to $45.62).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 69/100 (C+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

IRDM — Iridium Communications Inc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:21:00Z

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

IRDM scores 71 out of 100, graded B-, with the verdict "Roarable Buy — Sound Institutional Accumulation." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (16/20): Cited with ROIC of 50.9% and FCF yield of 6.13%. Strong capital efficiency and cash generation are the largest driver of the score.
  • Whale 13F Flow (11/20): Reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. The source does not provide 13F holder detail (see Analyst View), so this pillar's basis cannot be independently checked here.
  • Insider Conviction (15/20): Reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Specific trade data is not itemized in the source data.
  • Macro Regime Fit (15/20): Reflects Beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Cited with Altman Z of 1.92, Piotroski F of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock on 2026-11-02, the score points to strong cash conversion and balance sheet quality as the principal supports. The valuation tradeoff is material: trailing P/E is 42.7 and forward P/E is 39.7, which means the stock is priced at a premium relative to current earnings, and the upside case depends on sustaining cash generation and earnings growth. The stock trades at $46.05 within a 52-week range of $15.65 to $57.18, so it sits well above its low and below its high. The RQD score is a composite signal and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Iridium Communications Inc is classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and Telecommunications Equipment industry and is listed on NASDAQ. The profile section does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model. Per the financials, the company reported FY 2025 revenue of $871.7M, which is the only business-scale fact available in the source data. Source data is otherwise silent on what it sells, to whom, and how it earns revenue.

Revenue grew from $790.7M in FY 2023 to $871.7M in FY 2025, and operating income rose from $81.6M to $236.0M over the same period. Operating margin is 27.1% and net margin is 13.1%, while gross margin is reported as 0%. ROIC is 50.9%, Altman Z is 1.92, and Piotroski F is 8 of 9, with Debt/Equity of 0.5. FCF declined modestly across the three periods, from $314.9M to $299.8M, while cash rose from $93.5M to $96.5M over FY 2024 to FY 2025.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case: ROIC of 50.9% and FCF yield of 6.13% anchor the highest pillar score, with Piotroski F of 8 of 9 signaling strong balance sheet quality. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 16/20 (ROIC 50.9%, FCF yield 6.13%) and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $15.65 – $57.18 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case: Trailing P/E of 42.7 and forward P/E of 39.7 price the stock at a premium that requires sustained earnings growth to justify. Investors must weigh 42.7x trailing P/E and 14.9x EV/EBITDA against 27.1% operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are therefore — The only sector-level context is the Consumer Discretionary / Telecommunications Equipment classification and the beta of 1.0 per the market data section.

  • Key Question #1: What are the actual reported and estimated figures for the Q3 earnings release, and what drove the conflicting "Lags" and "Surpass Estimates" headlines?
  • Key Question #2: What products and services does Iridium sell, and what share of revenue comes from each customer category?
  • Key Question #3: What is total debt and EPS for each reported period, given that both fields are missing from the financials?

IRDM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to IRDM Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

IRDM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $43.74?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON IRDM 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on IRDM:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $52.99 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

ROIC of 50.9% and FCF yield of 6.13% anchor the highest pillar score, with Piotroski F of 8 of 9 signaling strong balance sheet quality

Here is why I am bullish on IRDM here at $44.91: ROIC of 50.9% and FCF yield of 6.13% anchor the highest pillar score, with Piotroski F of 8 of 9 signaling strong balance sheet quality.. Compare IRDM's 27.1% operating margin and 50.9% ROIC against the rest of Telecommunications Equipment. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $42.66 are getting bought.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — IRDM's 14/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

ME MeanReversion_88 Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $38.62 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $44.91

Trailing P/E of 42.7 and forward P/E of 39.7 price the stock at a premium that requires sustained earnings growth to justify.

I respect the product at Iridium Communications Inc, but the stock at $44.91 is a different story. Trailing P/E of 42.7 and forward P/E of 39.7 price the stock at a premium that requires sustained earnings growth to justify.. FCF yield is 6.13% and RQD sits at 69/100 (C+) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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