ROARABLE
Today ⌘ Pro Terminal Big Ideas 🎲 Predictions Screener 🦋 Butterfly 8 Analysts 🏛️ Policy 🎬 Video ★ Watchlist 🎲 Prediction Markets 📊 RQD Track Record 📅 Next Catalysts 🛡️ Overlap & Crash X-Ray 📰 Live Wire 🐋 13F Whales 🏛️ Congress & CEO Buys 🏆 $100K Arena ⌘ Pro Terminal 📐 Methodology & Corrections
Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / HOG / forecast
LKQ (56) FOXF (39) LVWR (20) INEO (44) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$31.22 +2.93% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $31.46

Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 75/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (24% profit margin, 18% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 75/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.7% hit rate) →
ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $3.16B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on HOG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HOG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-02, Harley-Davidson Inc. (NYSE: HOG) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 75/100 at a spot price of $31.22 (+2.93% 1D, market cap $3.16B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 18/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HOG ranks #66 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HOG compare to LKQ and FOXF in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
▼

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Motor Vehicles), HOG carries a Roarable B (75/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.3x, gross margin of 23.9%, and ROIC of 18.0%. By comparison, LKQ (LKQ Corporation) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 7.5x, ROIC 8.5%, cap $4.58B) and FOXF (Fox Factory Holding Corp.) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $686.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, LKQ leads on earnings multiple (7.5x) while HOG leads on capital efficiency (18.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HOG?
▼

Per HOG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000793952), Harley-Davidson Inc. generated $3.60B in revenue (-13.1% YoY), $338.7M in net income, and $415.2M in free cash flow against $8.04B in total assets and $1.65B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $31.46 (+0.77%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 11.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 75/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.7% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B
025507510075
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A- · Rk C
Cash (14)Whales (18)SEC (12)Macro (14)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.7% Base Target
$40 Bull$34 Base$26 Bear
📬 FREE HOG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HOG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (75/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HOG SCORES 75/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+18/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.6% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 8 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
67
Grade B-$27.47-1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
70
Grade B$27.19+8.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
72
Grade B$29.44+6% Next Q
Current
75
Grade B$31.22+7.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (67) → B (75)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HOG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 75/100 (B) score, HOG faces multiple-compression risk if 9.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 21.4% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($27.29) or 200D SMA ($24.08) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($33.61) toward Bear Floor ($25.60).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HOG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HOG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 75%NO 25%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your HOG Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $31.22: 320.3 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $25.60
$8,200
$-1,800 (-18.0%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $33.61
$10,766
+$766 (+7.7%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $39.66
$12,703
+$2,703 (+27.0%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (43 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 32● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskOUTPERFORM$3574%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadSTRONG BUY$3769%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$3058%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (HOG Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
HOG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +34.51%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $29.52H $31.22L $29.52C $31.22VOL 3.60M
RES: $31.34SUP: $24.00SMA50: $27.29SMA200: $24.08
$31.98$28.87$25.76$22.65$19.53RES $31.34SUP $24.00$31.222026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HOG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HOG Butterfly Map → + Track HOG →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-2.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -13.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HOG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HOG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HOG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HOG)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #66 of 1011 ⚔️ LKQ vs HOG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (HOG vs. LKQ, FOXF, LVWR, INEO)

Industry: Motor Vehicles (8 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) ranks #66 by composite RQD confidence (75/100, grade B) and #354 by equity capitalization ($3.16B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, LKQ leads on earnings valuation at 7.5x trailing P/E, while HOG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.0% ROIC and 23.9% gross margin. HOG currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 75/100 (B).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
HOG ACTIVE
Harley-Davidson Inc.
B 75/100 9.3x 23.9% 18.0% +2.93% $3.16B Benchmark Subject
LKQ
LKQ Corporation
D+ 56/100 7.5x 38.6% 8.5% +2.54% $4.58B /lkq-vs-hog →
FOXF
Fox Factory Holding Corp.
D- 39/100 — 30.2% -35.0% -2.08% $686.4M /foxf-vs-hog →
LVWR
LiveWire Group Inc.
E 20/100 — -17.3% -35.0% -26.67% $184.9M /lvwr-vs-hog →
INEO
INNEOVA Holdings Limited (Class A)
D 44/100 — 19.2% -1.0% -7.00% $9.2M /ineo-vs-hog →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000793952

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) reported GAAP revenue of $3.60B (-13.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.15B , and -26.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $338.7M, operating cash flow of $568.9M, and free cash flow of $415.2M (-52.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, HOG closed FY2025 with $8.04B in total assets against $1.65B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.18, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $3.60B $338.7M $568.9M $415.2M $8.04B $1.65B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $4.15B $455.4M $1.06B $867.3M $11.88B $4.47B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $4.88B $706.6M $754.9M $535.2M $5.86B $1.37B

3. HOG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HOG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Harley-Davidson Inc. (NYSE: HOG) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 75/100 at a spot price of $31.22 (+2.93% 1D, market cap $3.16B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 18/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HOG ranks #66 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HOG compare to LKQ and FOXF in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Motor Vehicles), HOG carries a Roarable B (75/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.3x, gross margin of 23.9%, and ROIC of 18.0%. By comparison, LKQ (LKQ Corporation) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 7.5x, ROIC 8.5%, cap $4.58B) and FOXF (Fox Factory Holding Corp.) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $686.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, LKQ leads on earnings multiple (7.5x) while HOG leads on capital efficiency (18.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HOG?

Per HOG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000793952), Harley-Davidson Inc. generated $3.60B in revenue (-13.1% YoY), $338.7M in net income, and $415.2M in free cash flow against $8.04B in total assets and $1.65B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HOG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HOG last traded at $31.22 (+2.93% on volume of 3,254,312 shares), positioning the stock +14.40% above its 50-day simple moving average ($27.29) and +29.65% above its 200-day simple moving average ($24.08). Across its 52-week range of $17.09 to $31.23, HOG sits at the 99.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 66.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.6% ($28.85 to $33.59).

HOG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is HOG's 12-month stock price target?

Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $33.61 (+7.7% from $31.22), with a bull-case target of $39.66 and a bear-case floor of $25.6.

Is HOG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates HOG B (Buy — BUY) with an RQD Confidence score of 75/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: HOG RQD Cockpit HOG 12M Forecast HOG Earnings & Move HOG Dividends & DRIP HOG Insiders & 13F HOG Whale Options HOG Profit Sankey HOG News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 75/100 (B) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

HOG — Harley-Davidson Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:24:07Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, HOG scores 75 out of 100, a letter grade of B, with the verdict "Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 14 / 20 (ROIC 18%; FCF yield 13.16%). This is the pillar that most directly supports valuation, since a high free-cash-flow yield suggests the business generates substantial cash relative to its market value. The score is held back by the reported financial trend (see Financial Trend).
  • Whale 13F Flow: 18 / 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning). This is the strongest pillar, indicating that institutional activity leans toward accumulation per the RQD methodology. The underlying 13F holder detail is not itemized in the source data.
  • Insider Conviction: 17 / 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow). A high score here reflects insider and congressional trade clustering as captured by the RQD model. Individual transactions are not itemized in the source data.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 14 / 20 (beta 0.92; sector sensitivity). A beta below 1.0 implies the stock has historically moved less than the market, which can be a stabilizing feature in volatile regimes, though it does not guarantee lower drawdowns.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 12 / 20 (Altman Z 2.18; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 0.53). This is the lowest pillar. An Altman Z of 2.18 and a Piotroski F of 6/9 sit in a middle range, and the score signals that balance-sheet quality is a point of scrutiny rather than a clear strength.

Investor implications: The upside case rests on strong institutional and insider signals plus a cash-generation profile reflected in the FCF yield. The valuation tradeoff is visible in the low multiples (P/E TTM 9.3, forward P/E 8.6, EV/EBITDA 3.5), which may indicate the market is pricing in risks the RQD pillars do not fully capture. The forensic pillar's middling score argues for examining the trend in reported revenue and net income before weighting the overall grade heavily.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
$30.33$3.16B9.38.63.53.252.74%0.92$17.09 - $31.2318%

Business

Harley-Davidson Inc. is a NYSE-listed company classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Motor Vehicles industry, per the profile section. The source data does not itemize its product lines, customer segments, or revenue mix. The company's reported gross margin is 23.9%, operating margin 10.7%, and net margin 9.4%, per the market data section. Not available in source data for further detail on how the company sells products or earns revenue beyond these classifications and margin figures.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$3604.0M$386.6M$338.7MN/A$415.2M$3091.7M$1649.6M
FY 2024$4148.3M$416.6M$455.4MN/A$867.3M$1589.6M$4468.7M
FY 2023$4882.9M$779.1M$706.6MN/A$535.2MN/A$1371.1M

Per the SEC financials, reported revenue declined from $4882.9M (FY 2023) to $4148.3M (FY 2024) to $3604.0M (FY 2025), and net income declined from $706.6M to $455.4M to $338.7M over the same span. Reported cash rose to $3091.7M in FY 2025 while reported debt fell to $1649.6M from $4468.7M in FY 2024. The source data reports ROIC of 18%, an Altman Z-Score of 2.18, a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.53 per the Roarable RQD rating and market data sections. EPS for each reported period is listed as N/A in the SEC financials.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news section, six headlines reference HOG:

  • Upgrade-related coverage: "Harley Davidson (HOG) Stock Looks About Right On Fresh Upgrade News" (Yahoo Finance, GREEN, CATALYST) and "Harley-Davidson Shares Rise After Citi Upgrades Stock to Buy" (Yahoo Finance, GREEN, CATALYST).
  • Price action: "Why Harley-Davidson (HOG) Stock Is Trading Up Today" (TradingView, YELLOW) and "Why is Harley-Davidson stock up 3% today?" (Investing.com, YELLOW).
  • Quality score: "Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) Shares Surge 6.7% -- What GF Score of 80 Tells Investors" (GuruFocus, GREEN, CATALYST).
  • Rating change: "Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) Stock Rating Raised to "Hold" at Wall Street Zen" (MarketBeat, GREEN, CATALYST).

Risk watch items: The source data does not identify specific risk events in these headlines. The YELLOW-flagged market-wire items describe price moves without stated fundamental drivers. Proprietary signals: None, per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are not available in source data.

Analyst View & Smart Money Ownership

Per the analyst data section, no analyst records are provided. The holders section likewise contains no 13F, Form 4, or Congressional trade records. Not available in source data for consensus rating, price targets, or individual smart-money transactions. The RQD whale and insider pillars (18/20 and 17/20) reflect flow signals in aggregate, but the underlying holder-level records are not provided.

Open Questions

  • What is the company's revenue mix by product line and geography, given the reported revenue decline across FY 2023–FY 2025?
  • Why did reported net income fall while reported cash rose, and what drove the reduction in reported debt from FY 2024 to FY 2025?
  • What are the EPS figures for each reported fiscal year, since the SEC financials list EPS as N/A?
  • Which specific 13F holders, insider transactions, and options positions underlie the strong whale and insider pillar scores?
  • What fundamental drivers, if any, accompany the upgrade and price-move headlines in the recent news section?

HOG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HOG Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HOG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $31.22?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HOG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on HOG:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $35.79 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is HOG (B • RQD 75/100) a Buy at $30.33?

Welcome to the HOG (Harley-Davidson Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 75/100 (Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward) in Motor Vehicles. Bulls point to capital efficiency (18.0% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $24.87 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $30.33

Pump the brakes on HOG — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on HOG, but look at what you are paying: 9.3x trailing P/E with 23.9% gross margins. Unless Harley-Davidson Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $35.18 (+16.0%)
Spot @ $30.33

HOG cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on HOG, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Motor Vehicles and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $30.33 (52-wk range $17.09 - $31.23), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

LIVE TAPE SPY $755.72 -0.38% QQQ $690.49 -1.44% DIA $517.13 -0.37% IWM $279.33 +0.96% NVDA $204.64 -4.22% AAPL $344.63 -1.23% MSFT $521.91 -1.55% TSLA $399.81 -0.86% PLTR $184.11 -6.27% SOFI $16.76 -4.83% IBIT $43.36 -0.94% GLD $355.78 -1.34%