Stock Ratings / Financials / HIG / options

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The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. (HIG) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$132.59 +0.40% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $133.00

The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. (HIG) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 28% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $35.31B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on HIG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HIG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. (NYSE: HIG) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $132.59 (+0.40% 1D, market cap $35.31B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, HIG ranks #116 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HIG compare to ACGL and AIG in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), HIG carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 28.4%. By comparison, ACGL (Arch Capital Group Ltd.) holds a B+ grade (78/100 RQD, P/E 8.1x, ROIC 9.2%, cap $35.47B) and AIG (American International Group Inc.) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 13.8x, ROIC 4.1%, cap $42.58B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ACGL leads on earnings multiple (8.1x) while HIG leads on capital efficiency (28.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HIG?

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Per HIG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000874766), The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. generated $1.51B in revenue (+3.3% YoY), $3.84B in net income, and $5.75B in free cash flow against $86.03B in total assets and $4.37B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $133.00 (+0.31%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 17/20 (A-) • 382% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HIG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (70/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HIG SCORES 70/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+17/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 382% FCF Margin ($5.75B FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (48.6) create a -10 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$131.19+4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$136.39-2.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$133.51-0.7% Next Q

Current

Grade B-$132.59+6.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (62) → B- (70)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HIG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 70/100 (B-) score, HIG faces multiple-compression risk if 9.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($132.73) or 200D SMA ($135.41) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($139.75) toward Bear Floor ($108.72).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HIG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HIG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 70%NO 30%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±3.9%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (HIG)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for HIG.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating HIG & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on HIG
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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HIG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -0.91%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $130.0H $132.6L $130.0C $132.6VOL 2.34M

RES: $139.0SUP: $115.6SMA50: $132.7SMA200: $135.4

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HIG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HIG Butterfly Map → + Track HIG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-2.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HIG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HIG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HIG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HIG)

Financials Rank #116 of 1096 ⚔️ ACGL vs HIG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (HIG vs. ACGL, AIG, CINF, WRB)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. (HIG) ranks #116 by composite RQD confidence (70/100, grade B-) and #81 by equity capitalization ($35.31B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ACGL leads on earnings valuation at 8.1x trailing P/E, while HIG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 28.4% ROIC and — gross margin. ACGL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 78/100 (B+) compared with HIG at 70/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HIG ACTIVE The Hartford Insurance Group Inc.	B-	70/100	9.2x	—	28.4%	+0.40%	$35.31B	Benchmark Subject
ACGL Arch Capital Group Ltd.	B+	78/100	8.1x	—	9.2%	+2.33%	$35.47B	/acgl-vs-hig →
AIG American International Group Inc.	C+	68/100	13.8x	—	4.1%	+0.56%	$42.58B	/aig-vs-hig →
CINF Cincinnati Financial Corporation	B+	77/100	11.7x	—	9.2%	-0.37%	$27.92B	/cinf-vs-hig →
WRB W.R. Berkley Corporation	B	74/100	15.3x	—	8.0%	+1.04%	$27.14B	/wrb-vs-hig →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000874766

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. (HIG) reported GAAP revenue of $1.51B (+3.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.46B , and +9.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $3.84B, operating cash flow of $5.92B, and free cash flow of $5.75B (-0.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, HIG closed FY2025 with $86.03B in total assets against $4.37B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.51B	$3.84B	$5.92B	$5.75B	$86.03B	$4.37B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.46B	$3.11B	$5.91B	$5.76B	$80.92B	$4.37B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.38B	$2.50B	$4.22B	$4.16B	$19.42B	$4.54B

3. HIG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HIG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does HIG compare to ACGL and AIG in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HIG?

Where is HIG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HIG last traded at $132.59 (+0.40% on volume of 3,218,926 shares), positioning the stock -0.11% below its 50-day simple moving average ($132.73) and -2.08% below its 200-day simple moving average ($135.41). Across its 52-week range of $120.42 to $146.07, HIG sits at the 47.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.9% ($127.42 to $137.76).

HIG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is HIG's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for HIG.

Direct Sub-Reports: HIG RQD Cockpit HIG 12M Forecast HIG Earnings & Move HIG Dividends & DRIP HIG Insiders & 13F HIG Whale Options HIG Profit Sankey HIG News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 70/100 (B-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

HIG — The Hartford Insurance Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:12:04Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, HIG scores 70 out of 100, a letter grade of B-, with the verdict label "Roarable Buy — Sound Institutional Accumulation." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20 (ROIC 28.4%; FCF yield 16.29%), Whale 13F Flow 10/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction 18/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit 10/20 (Beta 0.92; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet 15/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 8/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). The strongest pillar is insider conviction, followed closely by the cash engine. The weakest pillars are whale flow and macro regime fit, each at 10 of 20, which indicates institutional and macro support is more moderate than insider and cash-generation support. For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the upside case rests on high reported return on capital and cash yield; the valuation tradeoff is that the rating reflects these strengths alongside only mid-range institutional and macro scores. Investors should weigh the rating as one analytical input rather than a recommendation.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
$132.06	$35.31B	9.2	8.6	6.1	14.34	1.68%	0.92	$120.42 - $146.07	28.4%

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$1506.0M	$4526.5M	$3836.0M	N/A	$5753.0M	N/A	$4371.0M
FY 2024	$1458.0M	$3671.0M	$3111.0M	N/A	$5764.0M	N/A	$4366.0M
FY 2023	$1382.0M	$2954.7M	$2504.0M	N/A	$4157.8M	N/A	$4545.0M

Per the SEC financials, net income rose from $2504.0M in FY 2023 to $3836.0M in FY 2025, and operating income rose from $2954.7M to $4526.5M over the same period. Reported FCF was $5753.0M in FY 2025 versus $5764.0M in FY 2024. Per the market data, net margin is 68%, operating margin 75%, and ROIC 28.4%. Per the RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5, the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. Debt was $4371.0M in FY 2025, slightly below $4366.0M in FY 2024 in direction of change only; FY 2023 debt was $4545.0M. Cash balances are not available in source data.

Open Questions

What are the company's reported cash and EPS figures for FY 2023–FY 2025, which the financials table currently lists as N/A?
How do the reported Q3 metrics compare against the Wall Street estimates referenced in the news wire?
What is the composition of revenue by product line and customer segment?
What drove the Morgan Stanley pessimistic forecast, and what is the associated price target?
What are the specific 13F institutional holders and Form 4 insider transactions behind the insider and whale pillar scores?

HIG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. (HIG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HIG Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 5h ago

Unlocking Q3 Potential of The Hartford Insurance Group (HIG): Exploring Wall Street Estimates for Key Metrics

Yahoo Finance report covering The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. (HIG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 8h ago

Hartford Insurance: Watch Value-Enhancing Capital Recycling And Shareholder Returns

Seeking Alpha report covering The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. (HIG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST TradingView • 11h ago

Can Personal Insurance Strength Drive Hartford's Q3 Earnings Beat?

TradingView report covering The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. (HIG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 14h ago

Hartford Insurance Group (NYSE:HIG) - Stock Analysis

Simply Wall St report covering The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. (HIG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 17h ago

Morgan Stanley Issues Pessimistic Forecast for The Hartford Insurance Group (NYSE:HIG) Stock Price

MarketBeat report covering The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. (HIG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 20h ago

The Hartford Insurance Group (HIG) Q3 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates

Yahoo Finance report covering The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. (HIG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE www.marketscreener.com • 23h ago

The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividend on Common Stock, Payable on January 5, 2027

www.marketscreener.com report covering The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. (HIG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

Data and artificial intelligence will join The Hartford’s technology team; its claims chief will also oversee operations.

Stock Titan report covering The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. (HIG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HIG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $132.59?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HIG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $155.83 (+18.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is HIG (B- • RQD 70/100) a Buy at $132.06?

Welcome to the HIG (The Hartford Insurance Group Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 70/100 (Roarable Buy — Sound Institutional Accumulation) in Property-Casualty Insurers. Bulls point to capital efficiency (28.4% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

BE BearTrap_Alert Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $100.37 (-24.0%)

Spot @ $132.06

Pump the brakes on HIG — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on HIG, but look at what you are paying: 9.2x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $154.51 (+17.0%)

Spot @ $132.06

HIG cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on HIG, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Property-Casualty Insurers and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $132.06 (52-wk range $120.42 - $146.07), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.