Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / HGV / options

OSW (69) PK (46) SHO (66) PENN (48) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$38.44 +7.65% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.90

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 51/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 51/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.91B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HGV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (NYSE: HGV) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 51/100 at a spot price of $38.44 (+7.65% 1D, market cap $2.91B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HGV ranks #527 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HGV compare to OSW and PK in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Hotels/Resorts), HGV carries a Roarable D (51/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 34.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.3%. By comparison, OSW (OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 42.7x, ROIC 10.6%, cap $3.03B) and PK (Park Hotels & Resorts Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.9%, cap $3.34B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HGV leads on earnings multiple (34.3x) while OSW leads on capital efficiency (10.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HGV?

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Per HGV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001674168), Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. generated $4.51B in revenue (+1.1% YoY), $81.0M in net income, and $230.0M in free cash flow against $11.54B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.90 (+1.19%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 5.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 51/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HGV)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (51/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HGV SCORES 51/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (58.2) create a -15 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$35.18+2.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$36.19-1.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$35.73+7.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D$38.44-1.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (43) → D (51)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a HGV Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While HGV currently carries a cautious 51/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($37.42) and Max Pain ($40.36) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $58.17.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HGV• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HGV Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 51%NO 49%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±7.9%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (HGV)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for HGV.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HGV)

✓Walkthrough of HGV's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

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HGV // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -15.24%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-11-03O $35.71H $38.44L $35.71C $38.44VOL 1.88M

RES: $38.26SUP: $31.81SMA50: $37.42SMA200: $44.49

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HGV Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HGV Butterfly Map → + Track HGV →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

26.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HGV today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HGV. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HGV today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HGV)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #527 of 1011 ⚔️ OSW vs HGV Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (HGV vs. OSW, PK, SHO, PENN)

Industry: Hotels/Resorts (35 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) ranks #527 by composite RQD confidence (51/100, grade D) and #364 by equity capitalization ($2.91B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HGV leads on earnings valuation at 34.3x trailing P/E, while OSW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.6% ROIC and — gross margin. OSW currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with HGV at 51/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HGV ACTIVE Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.	D	51/100	34.3x	—	6.3%	+7.65%	$2.91B	Benchmark Subject
OSW OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited	C+	69/100	42.7x	—	10.6%	+0.40%	$3.03B	/osw-vs-hgv →
PK Park Hotels & Resorts Inc.	D	46/100	—	—	-0.9%	-1.31%	$3.34B	/pk-vs-hgv →
SHO Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc. Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc.	C+	66/100	—	—	—	-1.16%	$2.38B	/sho-vs-hgv →
PENN PENN Entertainment Inc.	D	48/100	—	—	-13.3%	+3.65%	$2.13B	/penn-vs-hgv →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001674168

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) reported GAAP revenue of $4.51B (+1.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.46B , and +25.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $81.0M, operating cash flow of $300.0M, and free cash flow of $230.0M (-13.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, HGV closed FY2025 with $11.54B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$4.51B	$81.0M	$300.0M	$230.0M	$11.54B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$4.46B	$47.0M	$309.0M	$267.0M	$11.44B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$3.59B	$313.0M	$312.0M	$312.0M	—	—

3. HGV Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HGV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does HGV compare to OSW and PK in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HGV?

Where is HGV trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HGV last traded at $38.44 (+7.65% on volume of 1,878,056 shares), positioning the stock +2.73% above its 50-day simple moving average ($37.42) and -13.60% below its 200-day simple moving average ($44.49). Across its 52-week range of $33.99 to $55.40, HGV sits at the 20.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.9% ($35.40 to $41.48).

HGV Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is HGV's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for HGV.

Direct Sub-Reports: HGV RQD Cockpit HGV 12M Forecast HGV Earnings & Move HGV Dividends & DRIP HGV Insiders & 13F HGV Whale Options HGV Profit Sankey HGV News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 51/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

HGV — Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:24:55Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, HGV scores 48 out of 100, a letter grade of D, with the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The score is built from five pillars, each scored out of 20:

Fundamental cash engine: 10 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 6.3% and an FCF yield of 8.29%. For an investor, the FCF yield is the more encouraging number here, since it implies meaningful cash generation relative to market capitalization, while the ROIC figure is modest and does not on its own signal a high-return business.
Whale / institutional flow: 6 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar covers institutional accumulation and options positioning. The low score indicates the source data does not show strong institutional conviction. The source does not supply the underlying 13F or options detail, so the specific drivers cannot be identified.
Insider conviction: 14 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar draws on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. This is the strongest pillar relative to its weight, but the source data does not provide the individual transactions, so the nature of the cluster cannot be verified from this dossier.
Macro regime fit: 5 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 1.0 and the pillar reflects sector sensitivity. A beta of 1.0 means the stock is expected to move in line with the market, so it offers no defensive cushion in a downturn and no outsized upside in a rally from a beta standpoint.
Forensic balance sheet: 13 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the pillar reflects Altman Z 2.5, Piotroski F 5/9, and Debt/Equity 0.5. These are mid-range readings: the Z-score sits in a zone that is not distressed but also not strong, and the Piotroski score is moderate.

Investor implications. The upside case rests mainly on the cash-flow yield and on the insider-conviction signal. The valuation tradeoff is significant: per the market data, the stock trades at a P/E (TTM) of 34.3 and a forward P/E of 31.9, which is high relative to the modest 1.8% net margin and 6.3% ROIC. An investor is paying a premium for earnings that the source data shows are thin. The combination of low institutional flow, a weak macro-regime score, and a demanding multiple is what drives the D grade. This brief is educational and does not constitute personalized financial advice.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$4513.0M	$0.0M	$81.0M	N/A	$230.0M	$239.0M	N/A
FY 2024	$4465.0M	$0.0M	$47.0M	N/A	$267.0M	$328.0M	N/A
FY 2023	$3592.0M	$0.0M	$313.0M	N/A	$312.0M	N/A	N/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $3592.0M in FY 2023 to $4513.0M in FY 2025, while net income moved from $313.0M to $81.0M over the same span, and free cash flow declined from $312.0M to $230.0M. Per the market data, the net margin is 1.8%, and the gross and operating margins are reported as 0%, which the source data does not clarify further. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 6.3%, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5, the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. Reported operating income is $0.0M in each period, so the operating profitability trend cannot be assessed from the source data.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Catalyst (GREEN), Seeking Alpha, 1h ago: Headline "Hilton Grand Vacations: Overdone Macro Fears Create A Significant Opportunity (Rating Upgrade)" points to a positive rating revision.
Catalyst (GREEN), Yahoo Finance, 3h ago: Headline reports shares rising after Q3 adjusted net income and revenue beat consensus.
Market wire (YELLOW), Benzinga, 6h ago: Headline "What's Going On With Hilton Grand Vacations Stock Thursday?" is a neutral market-action item with no detail in the source.
Market wire (YELLOW), Finviz, 9h ago: Headline states the company must prove its sales reset is working as shares sit near lows.
Market wire (YELLOW), TradingView, 12h ago: Headline is an estimates page for the stock.
Risk watch (RED), Investing.com, 15h ago: Headline reports Goldman Sachs cut its price target on a weaker outlook.

The Butterfly supply-chain graph reports no supply chain and no butterfly links or proprietary signals, so no second-order signals are available from that section. The news mix is split between positive revision and earnings-beat items and a negative analyst price-target cut, with the sales-reset question still open.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. The source data therefore does not map upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or cross-sector correlations for HGV. Sector and industry placement (Consumer Discretionary, Hotels/Resorts) is the only contextual classification available. Investors should watch the sales-reset narrative noted in the news wire, since a change in sales trends would be a first-order signal that the source data cannot otherwise quantify.

Open Questions

What are the specific SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR transactions behind the insider-conviction cluster flow, and who executed them?
What is the revenue and operating-income trajectory once the FY 2023 operating income gap is resolved, since reported operating income is $0.0M in every period?
What is the size and direction of the sales reset referenced in the news wire, and is it reflected in the reported financials?
What is the basis of the Goldman Sachs price-target cut, and what is the new target level?
Why are EPS and debt reported as N/A for every period, and what is the actual debt load behind the 0.5 Debt/Equity figure?

HGV Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HGV Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟢 CATALYST Seeking Alpha • 18h ago

Hilton Grand Vacations: Overdone Macro Fears Create A Significant Opportunity (Rating Upgrade)

Seeking Alpha report covering Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 21h ago

Hilton Grand Vacations Shares Rise After Q3 Adjusted Net Income, Revenue Beat Consensus

Yahoo Finance report covering Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 1d ago

What's Going On With Hilton Grand Vacations Stock Thursday? - Hilton Grand Vacations (NYSE:HGV)

Benzinga report covering Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Finviz • 1d ago

Hilton Grand Vacations Must Prove Its Sales Reset Is Working As Shares Sit Near Lows

Finviz report covering Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. Estimates – NYSE:HGV

TradingView report covering Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Investing.com • 1d ago

Goldman Sachs cuts Hilton Grand Vacations stock price target on weaker outlook

Investing.com report covering Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Hilton Grand Vacations (NYSE:HGV) reports strong Q3 2026

Yahoo Finance report covering Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Investing.com • 1d ago

Hilton Grand Vacations stock slips 2% on weak guidance despite Q3 beat

Investing.com report covering Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HGV Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $38.44?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HGV 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $38.57 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is HGV (D • RQD 48/100) a Buy at $35.71?

Welcome to the HGV (Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 48/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Hotels/Resorts. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (34.3x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $28.21 (-21.0%)

Spot @ $35.71

Pump the brakes on HGV — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on HGV, but look at what you are paying: 34.3x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $44.28 (+24.0%)

Spot @ $35.71

HGV cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on HGV, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Hotels/Resorts and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $35.71 (52-wk range $33.99 - $55.40), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.