Should I buy, hold, or sell HGBL stock right now?

Heritage Global Inc. (HGBL) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 36/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 12x P/E (10% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is HGBL's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

HGBL's 12-month base price target is $1.13 (range $0.88 to $1.63), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / HGBL

TDTH (30) SCOR (31) BBCI (43) TC (25) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Heritage Global Inc. (HGBL) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$1.25 -0.40% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.25

Heritage Global Inc. (HGBL) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 36/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $43.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HGBL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Heritage Global Inc. (NASDAQ: HGBL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $1.25 (-0.40% 1D, market cap $43.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HGBL ranks #784 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HGBL compare to TDTH and SCOR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Business Services), HGBL carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.2x, gross margin of 27.4%, and ROIC of 9.7%. By comparison, TDTH (Trident Digital Tech Holdings Ltd (Class B)) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $41.0M) and SCOR (comScore Inc.) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.8%, cap $50.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, HGBL leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while HGBL leads on capital efficiency (9.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HGBL?

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Per HGBL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000849145), Heritage Global Inc. generated $51.0M in revenue (+12.4% YoY), $3.6M in net income, and -$2.3M in free cash flow against $88.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.25 (-0.26%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HGBL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (36/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HGBL SCORES 36/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+9/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 45% Net Buy • Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 11.2% operating margin leave 15 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$1.26+0.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$1.27+1.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$1.29-3.1% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$1.25-8.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (44) → D- (36)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a HGBL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While HGBL currently carries a cautious 36/100 (D-) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.30) and Max Pain ($1.31) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $1.63.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HGBL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HGBL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 36%NO 64%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

44.130 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)

0.20>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

6 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE44% OF RANGE

L: $1$1.25H: $2

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 5 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 15 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 16 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on HGBL

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (25)

9.7% ROIC with 27.4% gross margin and -5.35% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 0.20 and Piotroski 6/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (35)

15/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 6/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like HGBL

✓Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HGBL)

✓Walkthrough of HGBL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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HGBL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -5.30%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-03O $1.26H $1.26L $1.25C $1.25VOL 34.2K

RES: $1.45SUP: $0.83SMA50: $1.30SMA200: $1.28

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HGBL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HGBL Butterfly Map → + Track HGBL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

2.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +12.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HGBL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HGBL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HGBL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HGBL)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #784 of 1011 ⚔️ TDTH vs HGBL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (HGBL vs. TDTH, SCOR, BBCI, TC)

Industry: Business Services (90 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Heritage Global Inc. (HGBL) ranks #784 by composite RQD confidence (36/100, grade D-) and #824 by equity capitalization ($43.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HGBL leads on earnings valuation at 12.2x trailing P/E, while HGBL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.7% ROIC and 27.4% gross margin. BBCI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 43/100 (D-) compared with HGBL at 36/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HGBL ACTIVE Heritage Global Inc.	D-	36/100	12.2x	27.4%	9.7%	-0.40%	$43.3M	Benchmark Subject
TDTH Trident Digital Tech Holdings Ltd (Class B)	E	30/100	—	51.2%	—	+1.78%	$41.0M	/tdth-vs-hgbl →
SCOR comScore Inc.	E	31/100	—	40.5%	2.8%	+0.90%	$50.9M	/scor-vs-hgbl →
BBCI Bradbury Capital Inc.	D-	43/100	—	—	—	+0.59%	$68.0M	/bbci-vs-hgbl →
TC Token Cat Limited	E	25/100	90.8x	—	-20.6%	-6.35%	$26.7M	/tc-vs-hgbl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000849145

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Heritage Global Inc. (HGBL) reported GAAP revenue of $51.0M (+12.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $45.4M , and -15.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $3.6M, operating cash flow of $6.1M, and free cash flow of -$2.3M (-130.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, HGBL closed FY2025 with $88.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$51.0M	$3.6M	$6.1M	-$2.3M	$88.4M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$45.4M	$5.2M	$7.7M	$7.6M	$81.3M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$60.5M	$12.5M	$13.0M	$13.0M	—	—

3. HGBL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HGBL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does HGBL compare to TDTH and SCOR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HGBL?

Where is HGBL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HGBL last traded at $1.25 (-0.40% on volume of 24,256 shares), positioning the stock -3.85% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.30) and -2.34% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.28). Across its 52-week range of $1.01 to $1.55, HGBL sits at the 44.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.4% ($1.18 to $1.32).

Direct Sub-Reports: HGBL RQD Cockpit HGBL 12M Forecast HGBL Earnings & Move HGBL Dividends & DRIP HGBL Insiders & 13F HGBL Whale Options HGBL Profit Sankey HGBL News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 36/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

HGBL — Heritage Global Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Heritage Global Inc. (HGBL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 36/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $1.25 (-0.40% 1D, market capitalization $43.3M).

Fundamental Cash Engine (5/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.7%, gross margin of 27.4%, operating margin of 11.2%, and free cash flow yield of -5.35%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (10/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (9/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.20, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Heritage Global Inc. Is classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Business Services industry, and is listed on NASDAQ . The company reported revenue of $51.0M for FY 2025, indicating an operating business of meaningful scale relative to its market capitalization.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Heritage Global Inc. (HGBL) reported $51.0M in annual revenue (up from $45.4M in FY2024, +12.4% YoY) and $3.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($60.5M revenue, $12.5M net income) through FY2025, HGBL scaled operating cash flow to $6.1M and free cash flow to -$2.3M, backed by $88.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 36/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -5.35% and institutional whale pillar of 6/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 5/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1.01 – $1.55 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 12.2x trailing P/E against 11.2% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source data therefore does not establish specific upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector correlations for HGBL. An investor should note that the absence of mapped links means second-order ripple effects cannot be assessed from this dataset, and that the company's exposure to Consumer Discretionary and Business Services conditions is a classification only.

Key Question #1: Can HGBL sustain or expand its 11.2% operating margin and 9.7% ROIC against Business Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $51.0M and free cash flow of -$2.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is HGBL's 10.2x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

HGBL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Heritage Global Inc. (HGBL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HGBL Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 20h ago

Heritage Global, Inc. to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Results and Host Webcast on Thursday, November 5, 2026

Yahoo Finance report covering Heritage Global Inc. (HGBL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 23h ago

Heritage Global Inc. Estimates – NASDAQ:HGBL

TradingView report covering Heritage Global Inc. (HGBL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH https://www.siam.in/ • 1d ago

Heritage Global (HGBL) Slips 2.34% to $1.25, Drifting Toward the Lower Edge of Its Range - Earnings Miss Risk

https://www.siam.in/ report covering Heritage Global Inc. (HGBL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 1d ago

Bit Brother Limited (BETSF) Seasonal Returns Chart - Yahoo Finance

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Heritage Global Inc. (HGBL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingKey • 1d ago

High Dividend Yield Stocks for Income

TradingKey report covering Heritage Global Inc. (HGBL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟢 CATALYST https://www.dars.gov.et/ • 1d ago

HGBL Q2 2026 Earnings: EPS of $0.06 Beats Consensus by 76.5% - Consensus Forecast Report

https://www.dars.gov.et/ report covering Heritage Global Inc. (HGBL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 1d ago

Goldmoney Inc. (XAU.TO) Seasonal Returns Chart

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Heritage Global Inc. (HGBL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE https://www.siam.in/ • 1d ago

Black Hawk Acquisition Corporation Units (BKHAU) Slide 4.22% to $12.25, Landing at the Midpoint of Its Trading Range - Overnight Profile

https://www.siam.in/ report covering Heritage Global Inc. (HGBL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HGBL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $1.25?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HGBL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $1.59 (+27.2%)

📌 Pinned Debate

A 12.2 trailing P/E and 10.2 forward P/E sit alongside a 9.7% ROIC, with a Q2 2026 EPS beat of $0.06 reported in the news wire.

A 12.2 trailing P/E and 10.2 forward P/E sit alongside a 9.7% ROIC, with a Q2 2026 EPS beat of $0.06 reported in the news wire.. When you look under the hood at HGBL, Fundamental Cash Engine is 5/20 with 27.4% gross margins and 9.7% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (6/20) has been quietly accumulating below $1.55. My 12M target is $1.59.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Shorting a 6/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $1.25 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.94 (-24.8%)

Spot @ $1.25

The Altman Z-Score of 0.2 and a -5.35% FCF yield signal financial stress, with FY 2025 free cash flow at -$2.3M.

Careful chasing HGBL at $1.25. The Altman Z-Score of 0.2 and a -5.35% FCF yield signal financial stress, with FY 2025 free cash flow at -$2.3M.. Gross margin is 27.4%, but operating margin is 11.2%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $0.94 on multiple compression.