CNR (37) BTU (24) AMR (43) NRP (70) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Warrior Met Coal Inc. (HCC) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$85.97 +0.41% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $85.87

Warrior Met Coal Inc. (HCC) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $4.52B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on HCC Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HCC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Warrior Met Coal Inc. (NYSE: HCC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $85.97 (+0.41% 1D, market cap $4.52B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, HCC ranks #113 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HCC compare to CNR and BTU in the Energy sector?

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Within the Energy sector (Coal Mining), HCC carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 79.3x, gross margin of 22.4%, and ROIC of 1.8%. By comparison, CNR (Core Natural Resources Inc.) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -4.0%, cap $4.33B) and BTU (Peabody Energy Corporation) posts a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.1%, cap $2.71B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HCC leads on earnings multiple (79.3x) while NRP leads on capital efficiency (18.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HCC?

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Per HCC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001691303), Warrior Met Coal Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $57.0M in net income, and $229.2M in free cash flow against $2.78B in total assets and $154.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $85.87 (-0.12%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 5.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk C+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HCC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HCC SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (32% of score)

Altman Z-Score 5.92 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 5.7% FCF Margin ($229.2M FCF) & 0% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$93.92-10.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$84.13+3.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$87.35-1.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$85.97-0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (64) → D+ (56)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HCC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, HCC faces multiple-compression risk if 79.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($93.13) or 200D SMA ($89.94) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($85.20) toward Bear Floor ($66.46).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HCC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HCC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±8.1%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (HCC)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for HCC.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HCC)

✓Walkthrough of HCC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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HCC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +2.32%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-02O $83.43H $85.97L $83.43C $85.97VOL 563.3K

RES: $112.1SUP: $82.63SMA50: $93.13SMA200: $89.94

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HCC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HCC Butterfly Map → + Track HCC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +14.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HCC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HCC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HCC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HCC)

Energy Rank #113 of 211 ⚔️ CNR vs HCC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (HCC vs. CNR, BTU, AMR, NRP)

Industry: Coal Mining (10 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Warrior Met Coal Inc. (HCC) ranks #113 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #89 by equity capitalization ($4.52B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HCC leads on earnings valuation at 79.3x trailing P/E, while NRP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.4% ROIC and — gross margin. NRP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with HCC at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HCC ACTIVE Warrior Met Coal Inc.	D+	56/100	79.3x	22.4%	1.8%	+0.41%	$4.52B	Benchmark Subject
CNR Core Natural Resources Inc.	D-	37/100	—	—	-4.0%	-0.25%	$4.33B	/cnr-vs-hcc →
BTU Peabody Energy Corporation	E	24/100	—	—	-2.1%	-0.22%	$2.71B	/btu-vs-hcc →
AMR Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc.	D-	43/100	—	—	-4.1%	-1.62%	$2.05B	/amr-vs-hcc →
NRP Natural Resource Partners LP	B-	70/100	—	—	18.4%	-0.75%	$1.54B	/nrp-vs-hcc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001691303

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Warrior Met Coal Inc. (HCC) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $57.0M, operating cash flow of $229.2M, and free cash flow of $229.2M (-37.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, HCC closed FY2025 with $2.78B in total assets against $154.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.92, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$57.0M	$229.2M	$229.2M	$2.78B	$154.3M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$250.6M	$367.4M	$367.4M	$2.59B	$153.6M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$478.6M	$701.1M	$701.1M	$2.49B	$581.8M

3. HCC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HCC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does HCC compare to CNR and BTU in the Energy sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HCC?

Where is HCC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HCC last traded at $85.97 (+0.41% on volume of 547,123 shares), positioning the stock -7.69% below its 50-day simple moving average ($93.13) and -4.41% below its 200-day simple moving average ($89.94). Across its 52-week range of $64.27 to $111.42, HCC sits at the 46.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.1% ($79.01 to $92.93).

HCC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is HCC's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for HCC.

Direct Sub-Reports: HCC RQD Cockpit HCC 12M Forecast HCC Earnings & Move HCC Dividends & DRIP HCC Insiders & 13F HCC Whale Options HCC Profit Sankey HCC News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 56/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

HCC — Warrior Met Coal Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:21:26Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, HCC scores 56 out of 100, a letter grade of D+, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars are:

Fundamental Cash Engine: 14 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 1.8% and an FCF yield of 3.81%. Returns on invested capital are thin, so the business is generating modest value relative to the capital employed, even though cash generation remains positive.
Whale 13F Flow: 6 / 20. This pillar covers institutional accumulation and options positioning. A score this low indicates limited evidence of institutional support in the source data.
Insider Conviction: 9 / 20. This pillar covers SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The score is below midpoint, indicating weak insider-signal strength.
Macro Regime Fit: 9 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 1.02 and the pillar reflects sector sensitivity. The stock is priced roughly in line with the market's volatility, but the score suggests weak alignment with the current macro regime.
Forensic Balance Sheet: 18 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, Altman Z is 5.92, Piotroski F is 7/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.07. This is the strongest pillar and reflects low leverage and healthy financial-quality markers.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the picture is a balance sheet that is strong while the return profile and valuation are the main concerns. The valuation metrics are elevated: P/E (TTM) of 79.3 and EV/EBITDA of 46.5 sit well above typical reference points for an operating company with a 1.8% ROIC. Upside drivers would have to come from sustained margin improvement or earnings growth that the forward P/E of 66.6 implies but the source data does not confirm. The 2nd-order implication is that a balance sheet this clean reduces solvency risk, but does not by itself justify the current multiple.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
$85.62	$4.52B	79.3	66.6	46.5	1.08	0.39%	1.02	$64.27 - $111.42	1.8%

Business

Warrior Met Coal Inc. (HCC) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Energy sector, Coal Mining industry, per the company profile. Revenue lines and customer details are not available in source data. Per the SEC financials, the company reports operating income and net income across fiscal years, but the source does not describe the product mix, customer base, or revenue model in further detail.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$0.0M	$45.7M	$57.0M	N/A	$229.2M	$300.0M	$154.3M
FY 2024	$0.0M	$254.9M	$250.6M	N/A	$367.4M	$491.5M	$153.6M
FY 2023	$0.0M	$541.4M	$478.6M	N/A	$701.1M	N/A	$581.8M

Per the SEC financials, operating income and net income declined steadily from FY 2023 through FY 2025, and FCF followed the same direction. Per the market data, gross margin is 22.4%, operating margin 3.6%, and net margin 4.5%, with ROIC at 1.8%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 5.92 and the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9, both consistent with a sound balance sheet. Debt/Equity is 0.07 per the RQD forensic pillar, and debt in the SEC financials stood at $154.3M at FY 2025 against cash of $300.0M.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts section, six headlines relate to HCC:

A Yahoo Finance piece on transitioning the Blue Creek development into low-cost cash generation (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE).
A ChartMill piece on affordable growth with accelerating forward earnings (GREEN, CATALYST).
An Investing.com item on a Jefferies rating reiteration tied to the dividend (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE).
A GuruFocus item noting the stock rose 3.4% while its GF Value suggested overvaluation (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE).
A TradingView estimates page (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE).
A Simply Wall St forecast and analyst predictions page (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE).

Risk watch items per these headlines center on valuation: the GuruFocus item explicitly flags overvaluation. The only GREEN, catalyst-classified item is the ChartMill note on forward earnings acceleration, though the underlying earnings figures are not in the source data. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

What is the revenue figure for each reported period? The financials show $0.0M across all three years, which the source does not explain.
What is the reported EPS for each fiscal year? The EPS field is N/A in every period.
What drove the decline in operating and net income from FY 2023 to FY 2025, and what is the FY 2023 cash balance?
Does the ChartMill claim of accelerating forward earnings have quantified support in the source data?
What are the coal price, production volume, and customer concentration drivers behind HCC's revenue and margins?

HCC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Warrior Met Coal Inc. (HCC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HCC Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 7h ago

Warrior Met Coal (HCC): Transitioning Blue Creek Development into Low-Cost Cash Generation

Yahoo Finance report covering Warrior Met Coal Inc. (HCC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST ChartMill • 10h ago

Warrior Met Coal (NYSE:HCC) Offers Affordable Growth With Accelerating Forward Earnings

ChartMill report covering Warrior Met Coal Inc. (HCC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com • 13h ago

Jefferies reiterates Warrior Met Coal stock rating on dividend

Investing.com report covering Warrior Met Coal Inc. (HCC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE GuruFocus • 16h ago

Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC) Stock Up 3.4% but GF Value Says Overv

GuruFocus report covering Warrior Met Coal Inc. (HCC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 19h ago

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. Estimates – NYSE:HCC

TradingView report covering Warrior Met Coal Inc. (HCC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 22h ago

Warrior Met Coal (NYSE:HCC) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions

Simply Wall St report covering Warrior Met Coal Inc. (HCC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Warrior Met Coal Declares Special Cash Dividend

Yahoo Finance report covering Warrior Met Coal Inc. (HCC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE www.marketscreener.com • 1d ago

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. Declares Special Cash Dividend, Payable on November 20, 2026

www.marketscreener.com report covering Warrior Met Coal Inc. (HCC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HCC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $85.97?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HCC 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $92.47 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is HCC (D+ • RQD 56/100) a Buy at $85.62?

Welcome to the HCC (Warrior Met Coal Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 56/100 (Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim) in Coal Mining. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (79.3x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $64.22 (-25.0%)

Spot @ $85.62

Pump the brakes on HCC — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on HCC, but look at what you are paying: 79.3x trailing P/E with 22.4% gross margins. Unless Warrior Met Coal Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $101.03 (+18.0%)

Spot @ $85.62

HCC cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on HCC, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Coal Mining and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $85.62 (52-wk range $64.27 - $111.42), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.