Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±9.1% Move

$123.62 +1.59% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $123.74

Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $5.33B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is GVA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Granite Construction Incorporated (NYSE: GVA) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $123.62 (+1.59% 1D, market cap $5.33B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, GVA ranks #75 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does GVA compare to ROAD and KRMN in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Military/Government/Technical), GVA carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 27.6x, gross margin of 16.1%, and ROIC of 13.8%. By comparison, ROAD (Construction Partners Inc.) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 51.7x, ROIC 6.9%, cap $5.26B) and KRMN (Karman Holdings Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 8.8%, cap $5.53B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KBR leads on earnings multiple (11.6x) while KBR leads on capital efficiency (17.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GVA?
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Per GVA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000861459), Granite Construction Incorporated generated $4.42B in revenue (+10.4% YoY), $193.0M in net income, and $330.6M in free cash flow against $4.03B in total assets and $963.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $123.74 (+0.10%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 7.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510067
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B- · Rk C
Cash (14)Whales (12)SEC (16)Macro (9)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.1% Base Target
$170 Bull$129 Base$100 Bear
📬 FREE GVA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GVA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY GVA SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.35 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (62.4) create a -11 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
59
Grade C$113.15-3.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
62
Grade C+$109.51+0.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
64
Grade C+$110.48+11.9% Next Q
Current
67
Grade C+$123.62+1.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (59) → C+ (67)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the GVA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, GVA faces multiple-compression risk if 27.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($115.71) or 200D SMA ($126.54) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($128.63) toward Bear Floor ($100.33).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GVA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “GVA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±9.1% Swing Band

±$11.25 Expected Swing
$112.37 (-9.1%)Spot $123.62$134.87 (+9.1%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

GVA Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 67/100

Trailing EPS: $4.41 • YoY Revenue Growth: 10.4%

Model Bullish Setup (67/100)Model Risk Weight (33/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$4.42B$193.0M$330.6M16.1%
FY 20242024-12-31$4.01B$126.3M$319.9M14.3%
FY 20232023-12-31$3.51B$43.6M$25.8M16.1%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating GVA & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on GVA
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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GVA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -10.12%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $111.7H $123.6L $111.7C $123.6VOL 1.65M
RES: $126.1SUP: $103.8SMA50: $115.7SMA200: $126.5
$166.1$149.4$132.6$115.9$99.10RES $126.1SUP $103.8$123.62026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GVA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
21.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +10.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GVA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GVA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GVA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GVA)

Industrials Rank #75 of 485 ⚔️ ROAD vs GVA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (GVA vs. ROAD, KRMN, MWH, KBR)

Industry: Military/Government/Technical (43 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) ranks #75 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #139 by equity capitalization ($5.33B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KBR leads on earnings valuation at 11.6x trailing P/E, while KBR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.3% ROIC and 14.8% gross margin. GVA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 67/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
GVA ACTIVE
Granite Construction Incorporated
C+ 67/100 27.6x 16.1% 13.8% +1.59% $5.33B Benchmark Subject
ROAD
Construction Partners Inc.
D 50/100 51.7x 15.6% 6.9% -2.08% $5.26B /road-vs-gva →
KRMN
Karman Holdings Inc.
D 46/100 — 40.3% 8.8% -4.17% $5.53B /krmn-vs-gva →
MWH
SOLV Energy Inc. (Class A)
D 44/100 — — — -4.12% $4.91B /mwh-vs-gva →
KBR
KBR Inc.
C 65/100 11.6x 14.8% 17.3% +0.99% $4.83B /kbr-vs-gva →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000861459

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) reported GAAP revenue of $4.42B (+10.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.01B , and +26.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $193.0M, operating cash flow of $468.9M, and free cash flow of $330.6M (+3.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, GVA closed FY2025 with $4.03B in total assets against $963.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.35, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $4.42B $193.0M $468.9M $330.6M $4.03B $963.2M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $4.01B $126.3M $456.3M $319.9M $3.03B $737.9M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $3.51B $43.6M $183.7M $25.8M $4.21B $985.4M

3. GVA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GVA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Granite Construction Incorporated (NYSE: GVA) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $123.62 (+1.59% 1D, market cap $5.33B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, GVA ranks #75 in composite RQD confidence.

How does GVA compare to ROAD and KRMN in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Military/Government/Technical), GVA carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 27.6x, gross margin of 16.1%, and ROIC of 13.8%. By comparison, ROAD (Construction Partners Inc.) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 51.7x, ROIC 6.9%, cap $5.26B) and KRMN (Karman Holdings Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 8.8%, cap $5.53B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KBR leads on earnings multiple (11.6x) while KBR leads on capital efficiency (17.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GVA?

Per GVA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000861459), Granite Construction Incorporated generated $4.42B in revenue (+10.4% YoY), $193.0M in net income, and $330.6M in free cash flow against $4.03B in total assets and $963.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is GVA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GVA last traded at $123.62 (+1.59% on volume of 1,072,255 shares), positioning the stock +6.84% above its 50-day simple moving average ($115.71) and -2.31% below its 200-day simple moving average ($126.54). Across its 52-week range of $97.26 to $162.08, GVA sits at the 40.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 62.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.1% ($112.37 to $134.87).

GVA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is GVA's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is GVA stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±9.1% event move for GVA, spanning a range between $112.37 and $134.87.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 67/100 (C+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

GVA — Granite Construction Incorporated: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:20:25Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, GVA scores 67 out of 100 (letter grade C+, verdict "Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout"). The five pillars break down as follows:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 14 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 13.8% and an FCF yield of 6.21%. Both figures are supportive, indicating the business generates meaningful returns on capital and cash relative to its market value, but the pillar does not reach the top band.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 12 / 20. The RQD rating describes institutional accumulation and options positioning as a moderate contributor. Investor implication: institutional demand is present but not the dominant driver of the score.
  • Insider Conviction: 16 / 20. Per the RQD rating, SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow is the strongest pillar. Note that the underlying insider transaction records are not provided in the source data, so the pillar score cannot be decomposed further here.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 9 / 20. Per the RQD rating, beta is 0.98 and the pillar reflects sector sensitivity. This is the weakest pillar, suggesting the stock's fit with the prevailing macro regime is limited. Investor implication: the stock is roughly market-correlated in volatility, and sector-specific conditions are not favorable enough to lift the score.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 16 / 20. Per the RQD rating, Altman Z is 3.35, Piotroski F is 8/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.82. These are the strongest fundamentals in the score, indicating low distress risk and solid financial health.

Taken together, the pillar pattern points to a balance-sheet and insider-supported profile held back by weak macro fit and moderate institutional flow. The "Watch for Breakout" label per the RQD rating signals that the stock sits in the upper neutral zone rather than the clearly favorable range. Upside drivers would be a shift in macro/sector fit or stronger institutional accumulation; the valuation tradeoff is that the stock trades at 27.6x trailing earnings per the market data, which leaves limited margin for error if earnings disappoint.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
121.69$5.33B27.625.714.44.410.43%0.98$97.26 - $162.0813.8%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$4424.4M$282.4M$193.0MN/A$330.6M$529.2M$963.2M
FY 2024$4007.6M$207.4M$126.3MN/A$319.9M$578.3M$737.9M
FY 2023$3509.1M$80.1M$43.6MN/A$25.8MN/A$985.4M

Per the SEC financials, revenue grew from $3509.1M (FY 2023) to $4424.4M (FY 2025), and net income rose from $43.6M to $193.0M over the same span. Per the market data, ROIC is 13.8%. Per the RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 3.35 and the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.82. Debt rose from $737.9M in FY 2024 to $963.2M in FY 2025, while cash declined from $578.3M to $529.2M over the same period.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

The news wire contains six items, all tagged YELLOW with impact label MARKET WIRE, and none carries specific quantitative content:

  • A Yahoo Finance UK general market-action item (1h ago).
  • A StockInvest.us stock price forecast item (3h ago).
  • A Seeking Alpha item referencing the 2026 Q3 results and earnings call presentation dated 2026-10-29 (6h ago). The headline is the only substantive detail provided; the results themselves are not in the source data.
  • A Yahoo Finance item titled "3 Reasons We Love Granite Construction (GVA)" (9h ago).
  • A Seeking Alpha item titled "Granite Construction: More EBITDA, Less Multiple, Still A Buy" (12h ago).
  • A Stock Titan item describing a Washington road project that will widen from five lanes to eight lanes and a pedestrian bridge replacing a railroad trestle (15h ago).

Risk watch items: the news wire contains no quantified risk disclosures. Proprietary signals: Not available in source data (the supply-chain graph lists none).

Open Questions

  • What are the reported EPS figures for FY 2023–FY 2025? The financials list EPS as N/A for all periods, while market data shows EPS (TTM) of 4.41.
  • What were the actual results and guidance in the Q3 2026 earnings release referenced in the news wire?
  • Why did debt rise by roughly $225M between FY 2024 and FY 2025 while cash fell, and what is the stated use of proceeds?
  • What is the company's revenue mix by end market, given that the source data gives only a sector label?
  • What are the specific Form 4, 13F, and Congressional transaction records underlying the insider and whale pillar scores?

GVA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to GVA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

GVA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $123.62?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON GVA 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on GVA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $131.43 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is GVA (C+ • RQD 67/100) a Buy at $121.69?

Welcome to the GVA (Granite Construction Incorporated) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 67/100 (Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout) in Military/Government/Technical. Bulls point to capital efficiency (13.8% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $93.70 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $121.69

Pump the brakes on GVA — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on GVA, but look at what you are paying: 27.6x trailing P/E with 16.1% gross margins. Unless Granite Construction Incorporated expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $147.24 (+21.0%)
Spot @ $121.69

GVA cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on GVA, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Military/Government/Technical and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $121.69 (52-wk range $97.26 - $162.08), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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