Groupon Inc. (GRPN) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Per the Roarable RQD rating, GRPN carries an RQD Score of 47 out of 100, a letter grade of D, and the verdict "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The score is built from five pillars, each out of 20:

• Fundamental Cash Engine: 15 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 56.5% and an FCF yield of 7.54%. These are the strongest inputs in the rating. For a prospective investor, they suggest that the business generates meaningful returns on invested capital and cash relative to its market value, which is the main source of upside in the thesis.
• Whale / 13F Flow: 4 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar covers institutional accumulation and options positioning, and it is the weakest pillar. A low score here indicates that institutional flow signals are not supportive, which weakens the case that large holders are building positions.
• Insider Conviction: 12 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The score is moderate, neither a strong endorsement nor a clear warning.
• Macro Regime Fit: 8 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects Beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity. A beta of 1.0 means the stock is modeled to move in line with the market, offering no defensive cushion in a risk-off environment.
• Forensic Balance Sheet: 8 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects Altman Z of 0.2, Piotroski F of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5. An Altman Z-Score this low is the single most important risk flag in the data set, pointing to elevated financial distress risk under the rating's framework.

Taken together, the rating frames GRPN as a company with strong cash-generation metrics that are undercut by weak institutional flow and a stressed balance sheet. For a prospective investor, the key tradeoff is that the upside case rests on the cash-return metrics, while the downside case rests on the forensic and flow signals. This is an educational summary of how the rating weighs these factors, not a recommendation.

Groupon Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed company classified in the Communication Services sector and the Advertising industry, per the company profile. Per the profile, the company has a market capitalization of $0.7B. Per the SEC financials, the company reported revenue of $498.4M for FY 2025. Source data does not describe the specific products sold, the customer base, or the detailed revenue model.

Per the market data, gross margin is 90.8%, operating margin is 4.7%, and net margin is -16.7%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 56.5%. Per the RQD forensic inputs, the Altman Z-Score is 0.2, the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. Operating income turned positive in FY 2025 and FY 2024 after a loss in FY 2023, while net income remained negative in all three periods. Reported cash rose from $228.8M to $296.1M, and debt rose from $246.0M to $309.2M across FY 2024 to FY 2025.

• Market wire coverage (Yahoo Finance, Yahoo! Finance Canada, and Stock Titan) is tagged YELLOW, covering market action and institutional positioning. One item reports that BlackRock owns 1.66 million GRPN shares.
• Risk watch items (MarketBeat and Yahoo Finance) are tagged RED. Headlines report that the stock fell 11.9% and suffered a larger drop than the general market.
• A MarketBeat item tagged YELLOW reports the shares gapped down.
• Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no supply-chain links or proprietary signals are recorded for GRPN.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are not available in source data. The only sector context is the classification of Communication Services / Advertising and a beta of 1.0. A prospective investor should watch how advertising-sector demand conditions affect revenue, since the source data does not quantify that link.

• What drives the gap between positive operating income and negative net income, and what share of that gap comes from interest or other non-operating items?
• How does debt rising from $246.0M to $309.2M relate to the Altman Z-Score of 0.2, and what refinancing or maturity profile applies?
• What is the reported EPS, since EPS appears as N/A for every period?
• Why are FY 2023 cash and debt not reported, and how do they affect the trend?
• What is driving the institutional and options flow behind the 4/20 whale pillar score?