Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±7.8% Move

GPK scores 53 out of 100, a D+ grade, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The fundamental cash engine pillar scores 15 out of 20, with ROIC at 7.8% and FCF yield at 0%. The whale 13F flow pillar scores 6 out of 20, reflecting institutional accumulation and options positioning. The insider conviction pillar scores 13 out of 20, based on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The macro regime fit pillar scores 6 out of 20, with beta at 1.0 and a sector sensitivity read. The forensic balance sheet pillar scores 13 out of 20, supported by an Altman Z of 2.5, a Piotroski F of 5/9, and a Debt/Equity of 1.51.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the rating points to a mixed picture. The cash-generation and balance-sheet pillars carry the score, while the flow and macro-fit pillars drag it down. The 0% FCF yield means the rating does not credit the stock with free-cash-flow support at the current price. The low P/E multiples in the market data sit alongside this weak rating, so any valuation appeal would need to be weighed against the fundamental and flow weaknesses the rating captures.

Is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Containers/Packaging industry. The profile does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model. —

Revenue declined from $9.38B in FY 2023 to $8.58B in FY 2025, and net income declined from $723.0M to $444.0M over the same span. Per the market data, gross margin is 18.2%, operating margin 9.4%, and net margin 5.2%, with ROIC at 7.8%. The Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9. Debt/Equity is 1.51 per the RQD rating, and reported debt was $5.02B against cash of $261.0M in FY 2025.

• 🐂 Primary Bull Case: The stock trades at a P/E of 5.9 and a forward P/E of 5.5 with a 4.91% dividend yield, and FY 2025 free cash flow of $841.0M was reported. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 (ROIC 7.8%, FCF yield —) and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $8.15 – $17.22 52-week range.
• 🐻 Primary Bear Case: Revenue fell from $9.38B in FY 2023 to $8.58B in FY 2025, net income fell from $723.0M to $444.0M, and the RQD score is 53 with a 0% FCF yield. Investors must weigh 5.9x trailing P/E and 9.2x EV/EBITDA against 9.4% operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

Operating in Containers/Packaging (Consumer Discretionary), GPK carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 18.2%.

• Key Question #1: Can GPK expand operating margin from 9.4% and ROIC from 7.8% toward top-quartile Containers/Packaging peers over the next 4 quarters?
• Key Question #2: Will free cash flow conversion (— FCF yield) strengthen balance-sheet liquidity (Altman Z-Score N/A) and support upside toward the $17.22 52-week high?
• Key Question #3: How sensitive is GPK's 18.2% gross margin and 5.5x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary demand cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00)?