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Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$12.89 +1.34% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.90

Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 40/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $3.30B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is GBDC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Golub Capital BDC Inc. (NASDAQ: GBDC) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $12.89 (+1.34% 1D, market cap $3.30B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, GBDC ranks #912 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does GBDC compare to CIFR and PFSI in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), GBDC carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.6%. By comparison, CIFR (Cipher Digital Inc.) holds a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -11.5%, cap $3.32B) and PFSI (PennyMac Financial Services Inc.) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E 6.7x, ROIC 11.6%, cap $3.27B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SLM leads on earnings multiple (4.5x) while PFSI leads on capital efficiency (11.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GBDC?
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Per GBDC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001476765), Golub Capital BDC Inc. generated $3.74B in revenue (-1.3% YoY), $376.6M in net income, and -$113.6M in free cash flow against $8.89B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.90 (+0.05%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510040
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-
Cash (5)Whales (10)SEC (10)Macro (4)CEO (11)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.1% Base Target
$15 Bull$12 Base$9 Bear
📬 FREE GBDC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GBDC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (40/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY GBDC SCORES 40/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+11/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 55% Net Buy • Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+10/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±3.9% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (60.9) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
32
Grade E$12.09-0.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
35
Grade E$12.00+3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
37
Grade E$12.36+4.3% Next Q
Current
40
Grade D-$12.89-7.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (32) → D- (40)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a GBDC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While GBDC currently carries a cautious 40/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($12.52) and Max Pain ($13.53) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $15.13.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GBDC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “GBDC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 40%NO 60%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±3.9%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (GBDC)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for GBDC.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GBDC)

  • ✓Walkthrough of GBDC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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GBDC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -5.77%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $12.78H $12.89L $12.72C $12.89VOL 1.07M
RES: $13.43SUP: $11.66SMA50: $12.52SMA200: $12.80
$14.05$13.46$12.86$12.26$11.66RES $13.43SUP $11.66$12.892026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GBDC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GBDC Butterfly Map → + Track GBDC →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-3.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -1.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GBDC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GBDC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GBDC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GBDC)

Financials Rank #912 of 1097 ⚔️ CIFR vs GBDC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (GBDC vs. CIFR, PFSI, SLM, GPGI)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) ranks #912 by composite RQD confidence (40/100, grade D-) and #340 by equity capitalization ($3.30B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SLM leads on earnings valuation at 4.5x trailing P/E, while PFSI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.6% ROIC and — gross margin. PFSI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 43/100 (D-) compared with GBDC at 40/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
GBDC ACTIVE
Golub Capital BDC Inc.
D- 40/100 8.8x — 9.6% +1.34% $3.30B Benchmark Subject
CIFR
Cipher Digital Inc.
E 29/100 — — -11.5% -5.90% $3.32B /cifr-vs-gbdc →
PFSI
PennyMac Financial Services Inc.
D- 43/100 6.7x — 11.6% +3.81% $3.27B /pfsi-vs-gbdc →
SLM
SLM Corporation
D- 37/100 4.5x — 7.4% +0.45% $3.25B /slm-vs-gbdc →
GPGI
GPGI Inc. (Class A)
E 21/100 — — -6.5% +4.92% $3.24B /gpgi-vs-gbdc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001476765 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) reported GAAP revenue of $3.74B (-1.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.78B , and +221.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $376.6M, operating cash flow of -$113.6M, and free cash flow of -$113.6M (-133.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, GBDC closed FY2025 with $8.89B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-09-30 $3.74B $376.6M -$113.6M -$113.6M $8.89B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-09-30 $3.78B $273.8M $343.9M $343.9M $9.01B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-09-30 $1.16B $258.6M $195.4M $195.4M — —

3. GBDC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GBDC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Golub Capital BDC Inc. (NASDAQ: GBDC) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $12.89 (+1.34% 1D, market cap $3.30B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, GBDC ranks #912 in composite RQD confidence.

How does GBDC compare to CIFR and PFSI in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), GBDC carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.6%. By comparison, CIFR (Cipher Digital Inc.) holds a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -11.5%, cap $3.32B) and PFSI (PennyMac Financial Services Inc.) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E 6.7x, ROIC 11.6%, cap $3.27B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SLM leads on earnings multiple (4.5x) while PFSI leads on capital efficiency (11.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GBDC?

Per GBDC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001476765), Golub Capital BDC Inc. generated $3.74B in revenue (-1.3% YoY), $376.6M in net income, and -$113.6M in free cash flow against $8.89B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is GBDC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GBDC last traded at $12.89 (+1.34% on volume of 1,443,060 shares), positioning the stock +2.96% above its 50-day simple moving average ($12.52) and +0.70% above its 200-day simple moving average ($12.80). Across its 52-week range of $11.77 to $14.41, GBDC sits at the 42.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 60.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.9% ($12.39 to $13.39).

Direct Sub-Reports: GBDC RQD Cockpit GBDC 12M Forecast GBDC Earnings & Move GBDC Dividends & DRIP GBDC Insiders & 13F GBDC Whale Options GBDC Profit Sankey GBDC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 40/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

GBDC — Golub Capital BDC Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-09-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 40/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $12.89 (+1.34% 1D, market capitalization $3.30B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (5/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.6%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of -3.42%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (11/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (4/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, classified under Finance: Consumer Services per the company profile..3B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-09-30), Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) reported $3.74B in annual revenue (up from $3.78B in FY2024, -1.3% YoY) and $376.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.16B revenue, $258.6M net income) through FY2025, GBDC scaled operating cash flow to -$113.6M and free cash flow to -$113.6M, backed by $8.89B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 40/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -3.42% and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 5/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $11.77 – $14.41 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 8.8x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Finance: Consumer Services (Financials), GBDC carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can GBDC sustain or expand its — operating margin and 9.6% ROIC against Finance: Consumer Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.74B and free cash flow of -$113.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is GBDC's 8.2x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

GBDC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to GBDC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

GBDC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $12.89?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON GBDC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on GBDC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $16.54 (+30.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The stock trades at 8.8x TTM earnings and 8.2x forward earnings with an 11.1% dividend yield, and the insider conviction pillar is the

Here is why I am bullish on GBDC here at $12.72: The stock trades at 8.8x TTM earnings and 8.2x forward earnings with an 11.1% dividend yield, and the insider conviction pillar is the strongest component of the RQD score at 11/20.. Compare GBDC's 0.0% operating margin and 9.6% ROIC against the rest of Finance: Consumer Services. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $12.08 are getting bought.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — GBDC's 10/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $9.79 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $12.72

The RQD score is 40 with a negative FCF yield of -3.42%, a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and a macro-regime pillar of only 4/20.

Careful chasing GBDC at $12.72. The RQD score is 40 with a negative FCF yield of -3.42%, a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and a macro-regime pillar of only 4/20.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 0.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $9.79 on multiple compression.

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