What is FOSL's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for FOSL.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / FOSL / options

ELA (55) MOV (63) BRLT (52) VSTS (53) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$6.81 +2.56% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.83

Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 36/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $392.7M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on FOSL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FOSL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Fossil Group Inc. (NASDAQ: FOSL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $6.81 (+2.56% 1D, market cap $392.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, FOSL ranks #775 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FOSL compare to ELA and MOV in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Consumer Specialties), FOSL carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 56.1%, and ROIC of -7.2%. By comparison, ELA (Envela Corporation) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 20.2x, ROIC 20.7%, cap $290.8M) and MOV (Movado Group Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 26.6x, ROIC 8.5%, cap $696.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ELA leads on earnings multiple (20.2x) while ELA leads on capital efficiency (20.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FOSL?

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Per FOSL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03, CIK 0000883569), Fossil Group Inc. generated $1.00B in revenue (-12.3% YoY), $0 in net income, and -$60.5M in free cash flow against $689.3M in total assets and $201.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.83 (+0.27%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FOSL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (36/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY FOSL SCORES 36/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (36% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±10% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$7.15-4.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$6.81-2.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$6.66+2.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$6.81-8.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (44) → D- (36)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a FOSL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While FOSL currently carries a cautious 36/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.12) and Max Pain ($7.15) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $7.76.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FOSL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “FOSL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 2, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 36%NO 64%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±10%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (FOSL)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for FOSL.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FOSL)

✓Walkthrough of FOSL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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FOSL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +56.91%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-03O $6.85H $6.85L $6.64C $6.81VOL 579.8K

RES: $7.80SUP: $4.13SMA50: $6.12SMA200: $4.85

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FOSL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FOSL Butterfly Map → + Track FOSL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -12.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FOSL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FOSL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FOSL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FOSL)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #775 of 1009 ⚔️ ELA vs FOSL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (FOSL vs. ELA, MOV, BRLT, VSTS)

Industry: Consumer Specialties (11 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) ranks #775 by composite RQD confidence (36/100, grade D-) and #614 by equity capitalization ($392.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ELA leads on earnings valuation at 20.2x trailing P/E, while ELA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 20.7% ROIC and 22.4% gross margin. MOV currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with FOSL at 36/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FOSL ACTIVE Fossil Group Inc.	D-	36/100	—	56.1%	-7.2%	+2.56%	$392.7M	Benchmark Subject
ELA Envela Corporation	D+	55/100	20.2x	22.4%	20.7%	+0.45%	$290.8M	/ela-vs-fosl →
MOV Movado Group Inc.	C	63/100	26.6x	54.2%	8.5%	+2.08%	$696.4M	/mov-vs-fosl →
BRLT Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A)	D+	52/100	—	57.5%	-35.0%	-4.46%	$159.9M	/brlt-vs-fosl →
VSTS Vestis Corporation	D+	53/100	—	—	2.6%	-1.01%	$1.96B	/vsts-vs-fosl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-03 • CIK 0000883569 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03), Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) reported GAAP revenue of $1.00B (-12.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.14B , and -28.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of -$57.9M, and free cash flow of -$60.5M (-251.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, FOSL closed FY2025 with $689.3M in total assets against $201.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-01-03	$1.00B	$0	-$57.9M	-$60.5M	$689.3M	$201.1M
FY2024 (FY)	2025-12-28	$1.14B	$0	$46.7M	$39.9M	$763.6M	$165.9M
FY2023 (FY)	2024-12-30	$1.41B	$0	-$59.5M	-$59.5M	—	—

3. FOSL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FOSL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does FOSL compare to ELA and MOV in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FOSL?

Where is FOSL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FOSL last traded at $6.81 (+2.56% on volume of 602,219 shares), positioning the stock +11.27% above its 50-day simple moving average ($6.12) and +40.41% above its 200-day simple moving average ($4.85). Across its 52-week range of $1.70 to $7.39, FOSL sits at the 89.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.0% ($6.13 to $7.49).

Direct Sub-Reports: FOSL RQD Cockpit FOSL 12M Forecast FOSL Earnings & Move FOSL Dividends & DRIP FOSL Insiders & 13F FOSL Whale Options FOSL Profit Sankey FOSL News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 36/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

FOSL — Fossil Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2026-01-03

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 36/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $6.81 (+2.56% 1D, market capitalization $392.7M).

Fundamental Cash Engine (4/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -7.2%, gross margin of 56.1%, operating margin of -1.9%, and free cash flow yield of -14.93%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.96x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Fossil Group Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Consumer Specialties industry. — for detailed product and customer description.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-01-03), Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) reported $1.00B in annual revenue (up from $1.14B in FY2024, -12.3% YoY) and $0 in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.41B revenue, $0 net income) through FY2025, FOSL scaled operating cash flow to -$57.9M and free cash flow to -$60.5M, backed by $689.3M in total assets against $201.1M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 36/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -14.93% and institutional whale pillar of 13/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 4/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1.70 – $7.39 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -1.9% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector and industry classification is Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Specialties; no sector correlation data is provided.

Key Question #1: Can FOSL sustain or expand its -1.9% operating margin and -7.2% ROIC against Consumer Specialties peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.00B and free cash flow of -$60.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $201.1M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is FOSL's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

FOSL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to FOSL Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 22h ago

Fossil Group, Inc. Announces Date for Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call

Yahoo Finance report covering Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Fossil Group, Inc. Estimates – NASDAQ:FOSL

TradingView report covering Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

Target's artificial intelligence chief joins Fossil Group's board

Stock Titan report covering Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Fossil Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:FOSL) Stock Now Rated "Moderate Buy" by Wall Street Analysts

MarketBeat report covering Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com • 1d ago

Fossil Group adds two directors, appoints new board chair

Investing.com report covering Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 1d ago

Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL.VI) Seasonal Returns Chart - Yahoo Finance

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

Performance shares tied to 150,000 common shares are among Fossil Group (FOSL) digital chief's holdings.

Stock Titan report covering Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Fossil Group (NASDAQ:FOSL) Coverage Initiated by Analysts at Lake Street Capital

MarketBeat report covering Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

FOSL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $6.81?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON FOSL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $7.97 (+20.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional accumulation and options positioning score 15 of 20 in the RQD rating, the strongest pillar in the data.

Long FOSL at $6.64 targeting $7.97. Institutional accumulation and options positioning score 15 of 20 in the RQD rating, the strongest pillar in the data.. Institutional whale score is 13/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $1.70 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Shorting a 13/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $6.64 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $4.98 (-25.0%)

Spot @ $6.64

ROIC of -7.2% and a FCF yield of -14.93% leave the cash engine scoring just 4 of 20 in the RQD rating.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short FOSL above $6.64. ROIC of -7.2% and a FCF yield of -14.93% leave the cash engine scoring just 4 of 20 in the RQD rating.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (4/20) and FCF yield (-14.93%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $7.39.