4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$11.90 -6.89% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.73

4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $706.0M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FDMT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: FDMT) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $11.90 (-6.89% 1D, market cap $706.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, FDMT ranks #406 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FDMT compare to ATTO and SLDB in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), FDMT carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -28.3%. By comparison, ATTO (Attovia Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $697.1M) and SLDB (Solid Biosciences Inc.) posts a E grade (27/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $685.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FDMT leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while FDMT leads on capital efficiency (-28.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FDMT?
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Per FDMT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001650648), 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. generated $85.2M in revenue (+230194.6% YoY), -$140.1M in net income, and -$109.6M in free cash flow against $566.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.73 (-1.43%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510045
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk C-
Cash (9)Whales (9)SEC (14)Macro (10)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.9% Base Target
$18 Bull$11 Base$9 Bear
📬 FREE FDMT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FDMT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY FDMT SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (31% of score)

Altman Z-Score 5.17 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 50% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 50.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
53
Grade C-$13.00-5.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
50
Grade C-$12.29-10.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
48
Grade D$11.03+7.9% Next Q
Current
45
Grade D$11.90-6.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (53) → D (45)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a FDMT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While FDMT currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($13.65) and Max Pain ($12.50) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $17.78.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FDMT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “FDMT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
50.430 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
5.17>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)
5 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE50% OF RANGE
L: $7$11.90H: $17
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 9 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 12 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 24 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on FDMT

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (45)

-28.3% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -15.53% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (70)

Altman-Z 5.17 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (37)

12/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like FDMT
  • ✓Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FDMT)

  • ✓Walkthrough of FDMT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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FDMT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +26.06%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $12.93H $12.93L $11.90C $11.90VOL 848.9K
RES: $17.35SUP: $10.74SMA50: $13.65SMA200: $10.90
$17.55$14.98$12.41$9.84$7.27RES $17.35SUP $10.74$11.902026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FDMT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +180.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FDMT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FDMT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FDMT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FDMT)

Health Care Rank #406 of 1016 ⚔️ ATTO vs FDMT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (FDMT vs. ATTO, SLDB, IAM, CADL)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) ranks #406 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #399 by equity capitalization ($706.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FDMT leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while FDMT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -28.3% ROIC and — gross margin. IAM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 49/100 (D) compared with FDMT at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
FDMT ACTIVE
4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc.
D 45/100 — — -28.3% -6.89% $706.0M Benchmark Subject
ATTO
Attovia Therapeutics Inc.
D 44/100 — — — -0.52% $697.1M /atto-vs-fdmt →
SLDB
Solid Biosciences Inc.
E 27/100 — — -35.0% -2.97% $685.2M /sldb-vs-fdmt →
IAM
Iambic Therapeutics Inc.
D 49/100 — — — -5.95% $676.9M /iam-vs-fdmt →
CADL
Candel Therapeutics Inc.
E 34/100 — — -35.0% -3.70% $661.9M /cadl-vs-fdmt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001650648

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) reported GAAP revenue of $85.2M (+230194.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $37.0K , and +311.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$140.1M, operating cash flow of -$109.1M, and free cash flow of -$109.6M (+20.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, FDMT closed FY2025 with $566.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.17, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $85.2M -$140.1M -$109.1M -$109.6M $566.7M $0
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $37.0K -$160.9M -$134.6M -$138.4M $560.4M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $20.7M -$100.8M -$75.8M -$75.8M — —

3. FDMT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FDMT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: FDMT) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $11.90 (-6.89% 1D, market cap $706.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, FDMT ranks #406 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FDMT compare to ATTO and SLDB in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), FDMT carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -28.3%. By comparison, ATTO (Attovia Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $697.1M) and SLDB (Solid Biosciences Inc.) posts a E grade (27/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $685.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FDMT leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while FDMT leads on capital efficiency (-28.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FDMT?

Per FDMT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001650648), 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. generated $85.2M in revenue (+230194.6% YoY), -$140.1M in net income, and -$109.6M in free cash flow against $566.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FDMT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FDMT last traded at $11.90 (-6.89% on volume of 683,520 shares), positioning the stock -12.82% below its 50-day simple moving average ($13.65) and +9.17% above its 200-day simple moving average ($10.90). Across its 52-week range of $6.96 to $16.93, FDMT sits at the 49.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($10.41 to $13.39).

FDMT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell FDMT stock right now?

4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 45/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-28% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is FDMT's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

FDMT's 12-month base price target is $11.2 (range $8.74 to $17.78), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 45/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

FDMT — 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:33:39Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, FDMT scores 45 out of 100, earning a letter grade of D and the verdict "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine — 9 / 20: Per the RQD rating, ROIC is -28.3% and FCF yield is -15.53%. The cash engine is currently consuming capital rather than generating it.
  • Whale 13F Flow — 9 / 20: Per the RQD rating, institutional accumulation and options positioning scored below midpoint. The source data contains no 13F holder detail to confirm the drivers.
  • Insider Conviction — 3 / 20: This is the weakest pillar. The news wire includes a reported insider sale by David Kirn of 58,333 shares and a sale by the CLO of $20,993, which align with the low insider score.
  • Macro Regime Fit — 10 / 20: Per the RQD rating, beta is 1.0 and the score reflects sector sensitivity.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet — 14 / 20: Per the RQD rating, Altman Z is 5.17, Piotroski F is 5/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. This is the strongest pillar and reflects a relatively sound balance sheet despite operating losses.

For a prospective investor, the picture is a company with a reasonable balance sheet funding a deeply loss-making operation. Upside drivers are the two pivotal readouts for 4D-150 that the news wire says are expected in 2027. Valuation is difficult to anchor because operating margin is -60% and P/E is not available in source data. The weak insider and cash-flow pillars point to distribution risk, so the score argues for caution rather than accumulation on current evidence.

Business

Per the profile, 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) industry. The source data does not describe its customers or detailed product lines beyond the news references to 4D-150, a gene therapy targeting wet AMD. Revenue in FY 2025 was $85.2M per the SEC financials, though the source data does not break down how that revenue is generated.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$85.2M$-159.5M$-140.1MN/A$-109.6M$60.2M$0.0M
FY 2024$0.0M$-187.8M$-160.9MN/A$-138.4M$149.3MN/A
FY 2023$20.7M$-112.9M$-100.8MN/A$-75.8MN/AN/A

Per the market data, gross margin is 0%, operating margin is -60%, and net margin is -60%, with ROIC at -28.3%. Per the RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 5.17 and the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9. Per the SEC financials, cash declined from $149.3M in FY 2024 to $60.2M in FY 2025 against zero reported debt in FY 2025, which indicates the balance sheet is funding losses from reserves.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news wire, the principal catalysts are:

  • An Analyst/Investor Day slideshow dated 2026-10-21 (Seeking Alpha).
  • Coverage of 4D-150 as a wet AMD gene therapy, with the TradingView report stating that two pivotal readouts are expected in 2027.
  • Insider sales: a CLO sale of $20,993 (Investing.com) and a sale of 58,333 shares by David Kirn (GuruFocus).
  • An analyst-conflict piece in The Globe and Mail.

Risk watch items are the insider selling and the cash decline. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, there are no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals, so no butterfly-derived catalysts are available.

Open Questions

  • What are the specific revenue sources behind FY 2025 revenue of $85.2M, and how much is recurring?
  • What is the cash runway given the FY 2025 cash balance of $60.2M and FCF of $-109.6M?
  • What is the pivotal readout design and success criteria for 4D-150 in 2027?
  • What is the full insider transaction history, and does it include any purchases?
  • What is the institutional holder base and recent 13F change direction?

FDMT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to FDMT Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

FDMT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $11.90?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON FDMT 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on FDMT:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $11.25 (-12.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is FDMT (D • RQD 45/100) a Buy at $12.78?

Welcome to the FDMT (4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 45/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances). Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

FO ForensicBear Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $9.59 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $12.78

Pump the brakes on FDMT — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on FDMT, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $15.72 (+23.0%)
Spot @ $12.78

FDMT cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on FDMT, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $12.78 (52-wk range $6.96 - $16.93), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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